The Case For Chris Sale As The First Pitcher Drafted
It’s basically heresy at this point to pick any starting pitcher before Clayton Kershaw, and the Dodgers’ elite left-hander remains a surefire first-round pick. Kershaw’s place as the no-doubt first SP taken, however, is more up for debate. Here’s the case.
The top tier of SP has three names in it: Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Chris Sale. The latter has been a top-flight pitcher for years, but only last season did he cement himself as a bona fide first-round- caliber pick. You would not be crazy to think about making him the top pitcher off the board.
Injuries
Kershaw’s a star, but he’s failed to hit 200 innings in three of the last four seasons, and missed time in the last two seasons with back issues. Meanwhile Sale, whose unorthodox delivery gave him an undeserved reputation as an injury risk for years, has surpassed 200 innings for three consecutive seasons and four out of the last five. Scherzer’s been a model of consistency for years, but a little further down we’ll get into why Sale may be a better bet than him as well. So don’t wince when you see Sale delivering in his sidewinder style that looks like his arm will snap; he’s been doing it for years, and he’s stayed healthy in the process. Ignore the fallacies because Sale is a workhorse.
The Most Important Stat
If you haven’t read much of my stuff before, welcome. If you have, then you know one of my favorite stats to evaluate pitchers is FIP (fielder independent pitching). It’s like ERA, but it incorporates walks, strikeouts and home runs, and has proven to be much more predictive than ERA. Of these three top-tier starters, guess whose FIP was the lowest? Yeah, you already know. Sale had a 2.45 FIP, compared to Scherzer’s 2.90, and Kershaw’s 3.07. Obviously all three are phenomenal numbers, but Sale’s is truly superb.
Taking this a step further, Sale is the only one of these three pitchers to post an ERA higher than their FIP. This is key, because one of the best way to identify sleepers is to target pitchers who got unlucky and posted ERAs that are higher than their FIP, with the thinking that they’ll positively regress. Scherzer and Kershaw both outpitched their FIPs by a good deal, while Sale’s ERA sat a full 45 points higher than his FIP. Despite having an awesome season, he was pretty far off from hitting his ceiling. Drafting him in 2018 is a bet that he’ll hit or blast through his ceiling.
Sale Is The Premier Strikeout Pitcher In Baseball
Sale was always a high-strikeout guy, but this year he led all qualified starters in strikeout rate, whiffing 12.97 per nine. He struck out 308 batters on the season over 214.1 innings, whiffed double-digit hitters 18 times, and reached 13 strikeouts four times.
He had his best season ever, with his most strikeouts ever, with the second-worst BABIP of his career.
Sale Is Also A Control Freak
In addition to wanting full control of uniform choices, I’m referring to his command of his arsenal. We’ve established Sale was insane last year, showed his most lethal strikeout stuff yet, and did so while actually being pretty unlucky. We didn’t get to the part yet where he not only struck out more batters than the other top guys at a more impressive rate, but he also walked fewer hitters. Sale’s stuff is among the most wicked any pitcher has to offer, and he has full control of it at all times.
In 214.1 innings Sale only walked 43 batters, a rate of 1.81 per nine. He never walked more than three batters in any game, and 2017 was his third straight season of a sub-2.00 BB/9. For someone to have that kind of walk rate with his incredible stuff, it means he’s a master of his craft. Even if for some weird reason his strikeout numbers dipped, you can comfortably rely on Sale to post a useful WHIP and go deep into games because he isn’t wasting pitches.
His Situation
Wins are unpredictable, we all know that. But you can reasonably expect a top pitcher to rack up more wins on a team that is dope. The Red Sox are an excellent team, with a deep lineup and the spending power to acquire a bopper for the middle of the order. Sale won 17 games last season with somewhat bad luck; if his FIP and strikeout rate maintain, he’ll push for 20 victories.
In closing, you can’t really go wrong picking any of Sale, Scherzer or Kershaw. But if you believe in numbers – hint, you should – then you need to give strong consideration to taking Sale in Round 1, or passing on Kershaw/Scherzer in the first if you know your league and snapping him up in the second.