Fantasy Baseball Busts 2017: Revisiting 5 Pitchers Who Probably Ruined Your Season
If your fantasy team stunk, or if you were middle of the pack after leaving draft night thinking the title was a lock, chances are you had these guys on your team. As the season’s end draws near, it’s time for a bit of a post-mortem. We’ll check out some 2017 season-ruiners, and whether or not you should run it back with these fellas in 2018.
Yu Darvish, SP, Dodgers
Darvish was a Top 5 pitcher on many lists, and was counted on by just about anyone who owned him to be the top pitcher on their team. By no means has Darvish been terrible, but you have not gotten proper return on his ADP. Between the Rangers and Dodgers this year, Darvish has posted a 3.96 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, with just nine wins on the year.
It hasn’t been all bad; Darvish has struck out 200 batters at the time of this writing, and has whiffed nearly 11 batters per nine. He has also walked fewer than three per nine, which is impressive for a guy whose stuff is as nasty as his is, and for a pitcher with such a high K-rate. So what’s the issue?
The biggest problem for Darvish has been home runs. He’s giving up 1.35 HRs per nine, and his gopher ball tendency has gotten worse since joining Los Angeles. The root cause seems to be a decline in Darvish’s fastball. He’s throwing his fastball seven percent less than he did last year, and the pitch value has decreased. Those fastballs have been replaced with sliders and cutters, which are leaving the yard when he misses.
Darvish can definitely still be elite. He remains a top-notch strikeout artist, and next year he will be in a friendlier home park for a full season, as well as getting a full year in the NL. He was a bit disappointing this year, but I’m not worried about him long-term.
Jon Lester, SP, Cubs
Lester, coming off a 2016 season in which he pitched to a 2.44 ERA, has been a disaster for you. That lights-out campaign last year spiked his ADP, especially with owners expecting a ton of wins on the Cubs. Lester did not reward your confidence. As of this writing, he’s gone 11-8 with a brutal 4.56 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. His 4.17 FIP doesn’t really help his case much; Lester wasn’t merely unlucky this year, he’s been bad.
This bad year doesn’t come from nowhere. He finished 2016 with a .256 BABIP, which was begging for regression. He also posted a 3.41 FIP, a full run higher than his actual ERA. This huge of a drop-off is shocking, but you were a fool to expect a 2016 repeat. Lester also posted a ridiculous 84.9 percent strand rate last year, another stat that was unrealistic to expect to continue.
Going forward, Lester could very well be a high-end No. 2 starter for your fantasy staff, especially pitching for the Cubs. He could be a 20-game winner next year if he gets enough run support. But elite? Nope.
Johnny Cueto, SP, Giants
Everything went wrong for San Francisco this season, but few things went worse than Cueto’s season. He battled injury, and when he did toe the rubber he was generally terrible. As of this writing he posted a 4.49 ERA, and his FIP (4.58) suggests he’s slightly lucky it isn’t worse. His walks per nine ballooned to 3.37, and his home run to fly ball rate shot up to 14.6 percent. None of this is encouraging for a player who will be 32 next year, and has logged 1,776.1 career innings.
Other numbers paint a bleaker picture. Cueto’s hard contact percentage rose eight points, his line drive percentage rose by four points, and his fly ball rate leapt by six points. His ground ball rate? Down 10 points. Everything is telling us that Cueto is likely mid-rotation fodder or worse going forward. Don’t be fooled by the name value on draft night.
David Price, SP, Red Sox
Many probably wrote Price off after a down year in 2016, but 2017 has confirmed it. The David Price of the past is gone, replaced by a new version, one who resembles Jon Lester. Last season, Price posted a 3.99 ERA with a 3.60 FIP which was cause for optimism. This year, his ERA sits at 3.72 (see, FIP is predictive!), but his FIP is at 3.82. Pretty much, this is who Price is now, and he has very high upside for racking up wins with Boston’s high-powered offense behind him. Price is no longer elite, but he is still reliable. Re-calibrate the expectation and draft accordingly.
Masahiro Tanaka, SP, Yankees
Tanaka has never been “elite” like a Chris Sale or Clayton Kershaw, but he’s at times resembled a fantasy ace. For a large portion of 2017 he didn’t resemble a fantasy-relevant pitcher. Right now, his ERA sits at 4.94 (ugly), his WHIP at 1.27 (survivable, but not ideal), and his win total at 12. So what to make of this strange season he’s had?
From April through May, Tanaka was unplayable. In June, he posted a 3.94 ERA, in July it was 3.84, and then in August he sparkled with a 2.63 ERA over 24 innings. But in September, he’s fallen apart again. So what’s going on?
It’s Tanaka’s fastball. The velocity hasn’t dropped, but his fastball has been worth -16 runs in 2017, whereas last season it was league average. Tanaka’s signature pitch has always been his splitter, and now his slider’s become his most-used serving, but without a fastball, any pitcher is lost. This year, Tanaka’s splitter and cutter have been far below par, and it’s no surprise that his numbers have suffered greatly. Between the decrease in effectiveness of his highest-velocity offerings, and a sharp increase in his home run rate, there are some alarming trends for him moving forward.
There’s a glimmer of hope for Tanaka; his xFIP, a version of FIP that’s a bit more subjective, is currently at 3.56, a figure far lower than his ERA, and significantly lower than his FIP as well. If this proves to be the correct figure, then Tanaka should have a very nice bounce back season in 2018. However, between the trends he’s shown, and his lingering, scary elbow worries, Tanaka shouldn’t be trusted to be more than a fantasy No. 3 or 4.