Fantasy Baseball Busts 2017: Revisiting 6 Hitters Who Probably Screwed Up Your Season

If your fantasy team stunk, or if you were middle of the pack after leaving draft night thinking the title was a lock, chances are you had these guys on your team. As the season’s end draws near, it’s time for a bit of a post-mortem. We’ll check out some 2017 season-ruiners, and whether or not you should run it back with these fellas in 2018.

Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Tigers

Miggy’s fall from grace really shocked me this season. He battled injury for much of the year, playing through (and sometimes succumbing to) a lingering back injury, and has posted a .249/.329/.399 slash line as of this writing. He’s hit just 16 home runs, and his Isolated Power is just .149, the lowest of his career. At 34 years old, with nearly 15 full seasons in the books, it’s fair to wonder if Cabrera is done as an elite first baseman.

It’s murky. His .292 BABIP is lower than usual for him, but not nearly low enough for me to brush off his subpar average as a fluke. On the flip side, he is making slightly more hard contact than last season, and there are no significant changes in his plate discipline; his contact rates are steady, as is his fly ball rate. He has not become pull-happy, which is important because that means he’d face extreme shifts. Cabrera hasn’t even begun chasing bad pitches out of frustration.

The biggest reason for his decline seems to be slightly bad luck on batted balls in play, and a steep drop in his home run to fly ball ratio. That may be explained by his fight with his own body, and his back issues might have sapped him of just enough authority that what used to be homers are long outs. If his back injuries weren’t chronic, that’d be good news for his 2018 forecast. However…well just read this.

Cabrera may learn how to effectively navigate his back issues and remain a very good player, but the days of him being drafted in Round 1 appear to be over.

Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox

Entering 2017, Bogaerts was a guy mentioned in the same breath as Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. If not, just a hair below them. Now, not so much. It’s not like Bogaerts has been a disaster, because he’s been pretty effective as a real life shortstop. However, for fantasy purposes he’s been so very blahh.

Bogaerts’ slash line at the time of this writing reads .268/.339/.395, to go with nine home runs and 15 stolen bases. That’s just not enough production for a guy in his physical prime with 604 plate appearances. In 2015 Bogaerts hit .321, and last season he flirted with .300 and belted 21 homers to go with 13 steals. He also scored 115 runs a season ago. Basically, it’s been tough to peg where Bogaerts’ production will come from, but you’ve been able to safely assume he will be giving you value. With these numbers, he just has not been a difference-maker.

There has been no real difference in his strikeout percentage and he’s walked slightly more in 2017 than he did last year. The hole in his season seems to be in how he hits the ball; his hard contact percentage hasn’t notably changed, but his fly ball rate is down five percentage points, and his ground ball rate has jumped 4.5 points. That dovetails with about a five-point drop in his home run to fly ball rate, and has led to his sharp downturn in the power department. That would be acceptable if he ran more to compensate, but he just seems like a 15-20 stolen base guy. That’s fantastic when he bops 20ish homers, but it’s just good when he is going to hit 10-12 taters. He’s proven he can be an elite fantasy SS, but nothing here suggests you can count on it.

Rougned Odor, 2B, Rangers

Odor, 23, has hit 30 home runs and stolen 14 bases at the time of this writing. That’s the second straight 30-homer season for the Rangers second-sacker, and in general 30-HR 15-SB seasons are incredibly valuable for fantasy. So what’s the problem right?

Well, Odor has managed to be legitimately terrible for huge swaths of the season, and likely caused some of those homers and steals to not count because they came in the midst of benchings.

Odor’s slash line is disgusting -- .206/.252/.404 – and he’s scored just 78 runs to go with 74 RBI. He’s posted a -27.4 offensive rating per Fangraphs despite all those taters. The problem with Odor is clear, he has absolutely zero plate discipline. This year’s walk rate, 4.6 percent, represents the second-best mark of his four-year career. That’s pathetic, and it’s why he reaches base barely a quarter of the time.

Pitchers don’t bother throwing Odor strikes, as only 41.4 percent of the pitches he sees are in the zone. He’s still young, and middle infielders who sock 30+ homers with consistency are always going to be valuable, but Odor’s got no path to being elite without a drastic improvement in his on-base skills. That doesn’t appear to be forthcoming, so he can only be treated like a mid-round power threat.

A.J. Pollock, OF, Diamondbacks

Pollock has always been an injury risk, and this year was no different. Pollock has played just 106 games as of this writing, slashing .264/.329/.472 with 13 home runs and 19 stolen bases. Those numbers are okay, but they’re a far cry from the Pollock we saw in 2015 who looked like a borderline first rounder. The power Pollock showed two seasons ago – not just 20 home runs, but a .498 slugging percentage and .338 ISO – seem like absolute peaks he’s unlikely to reach again. Pollock is more likely a good bet for 15 homers, and you’re drafting him for elite stolen base numbers.

He will continue to steal bases, but he’s not as efficient as you’d want for a player whom you’ll draft moving forward with a built-in expectation of missed games. He’s swiped 19 bags this year, which is acceptable, but he’s also been caught six times.

When it comes to Pollock, he still has the potential to be elite, but he will have to stay healthy to do so. Looking at his career, that’s a tough sell. He’s more likely to win you your league as a Round 4-6 pick in the off chance he avoids the DL for a season than to return value on a pick in the first three rounds.

Kyle Schwarber, C/OF, Cubs

Schwarber has been one of the biggest disappointments of 2017 regardless of position, slashing .207/.313/.466 with as hollow a 29 home runs as you’ll ever see. His season is similar to Odor’s, in that he’s been home runs or bust because he’s shown a glaring lack of on-base skills. In his first two seasons of significant playing time, Schwarber’s walk rate has been in the 12-13 percent range, which is not enough to sustain a 30 percent strikeout rate.

At 24 years old, it’s way too early to jump ship on Schwarber. He possesses some of the most elite raw power of anyone in baseball, and if he develops his eye, and increases his walk rate, he could resemble Aaron Judge next year rather than Rougned Odor. The key to him retaining “elite” upside next year is how much time he gets at catcher. So far, Schwarber has made four appearances (zero starts) behind the plate. If he retains catcher eligibility, he can be a top hitter at his position. If he is simply an outfielder, it’s hard to imagine drafting him in the first six or seven rounds.

Jonathan Lucroy, C/1B, Rockies

Lucroy had an argument to be the first catcher off the board in 2017, and what he delivered was a season in which he was mostly unplayable. He has hit just .251, and swatted a PATHETIC five home runs in 460 plate appearances. He was traded at the deadline to Colorado, and even though he’s batted .292 for the Rockies, he has managed a single homer despite playing in MLB’s top hitter’s park.

Last year’s 24 home runs and .208 ISO stand out as obvious outliers in Lucroy’s career, so it’s not inconceivable that in 2018 he could hit at a near-.300 clip, especially if he remains with the Rockies. But his power has left him once again, and since he’s on the wrong side of 30 years old it’s unlikely the pop’s coming back. Lucroy will probably be a Top 7-10 catcher next season, but that’s really not saying much. Lucroy’s days as an elite fantasy catcher are behind him.