MLB Fantasy Baseball 2018: The Position Scarcity King

Position scarcity is a real thing. For the uninitiated, a player’s value can rise when said player is at the top of a position where there is very little depth. Often, players whose value shoots up due to position scarcity may not compare favorably to other elite players; they could potentially be worth more than them, though, because of the drop-off in quality to the next tier.

Heading into 2018, there is a clear king of position scarcity. His name is Gary Sanchez, and he’s the catcher for the New York Yankees.

Let’s start with the basics. In 2017, Sanchez’s first full MLB campaign, he slashed .278/.345/.531 with 33 home runs and 90 RBI over 122 games (525 plate appearances). These are very good numbers for any position, but as a catcher they completely blew away all competition. He led all catchers in runs (79), home runs (33), RBI (90); in several other categories like OPS and WRC+ he didn’t rank first, but the only names ahead of him hovered around 300 plate appearances or fewer. He was a beast across the board – except for steals, which no catchers will help you with – and a rare bright spot in what was an extremely bleak position.

Moving forward, there’s no reason to expect him to slow down at all. His .304 BABIP is nothing out of the ordinary, so he wasn’t benefitting from an overabundance of luck. He built on a killer 2016 rookie campaign, proving his phenomenal first season was no fluke and confirming everything we learned about him in the minors.

So we’ve established Sanchez is an excellent player. What makes him the Scarcity King? It’s his competition. The only players who were in his orbit in 2017 were Buster Posey and Salvador Perez. Let’s compare Sanchez to those two.

Player      GP           PA           AVG         R             HR           RBI            OBP          OPS

Sanchez   122          535          .278         79            33            90            .345          .846

Posey       140          568         .320         62            12             67            .400           .861

Perez        129          499         .268         57            27            80            .297         . 792

It’s pretty remarkable how much more valuable Sanchez is. Posey has a major edge in batting average and OBP, but would you rather have the points on your batting average, or Sanchez’s 21-home run advantage? Despite Posey’s average sitting 52 points higher than Sanchez’s, his OPS was only 15 points better. Removing his OBP, Posey profiles like a high-contact middle infielder.

Perez proved he can approach Sanchez’s power, finishing with just five fewer homers, but Sanchez’s OBP and OPS dwarf Perez’s, because Perez has never seen a pitch he wouldn’t swing at. Sanchez also plays in a much better offense, offering him opportunities to score lots of runs, the most underrated stat in fantasy baseball.

Cubs catcher Willson Contreras is the only other player in this range, and while he’s promising, in his two years of meaningful MLB experience he’s yet to post a season even as good as Sanchez’s rookie performance.

Once drafters get beyond those four, the next catchers are J.T. Realmuto (career-high 17 HRs), Yadier Molina (four straight seasons of 12 or fewer homers before 2017), and Evan Gattis, who is in a clear timeshare with Brian McCann and only registered 325 plate appearances last season.

Currently, Sanchez’s ADP is about 21st overall per NFBC.com, with Francisco Lindor going directly before him, and J.D. Martinez going right behind him. Those names are instructive, because they will both likely put up bigger numbers, but the 10th-best SS will be much closer to Lindor than the 10th-best catcher is to Sanchez. 21st overall might be a little too high a price, but grabbing El Gary in Round 2 is not crazy. Trust your gut, and know that if you have Sanchez you have at least one huge advantage over every other owner in your league.