MLB Fantasy Baseball 2018: 5 Players Ready to Breakout

As you begin preparing for draft season, here are a few players ready to burst out and become major fantasy assets. Keep them in mind as you assemble your rankings, and maybe target some as you figure out where to spend major draft capital.

Willson Contreras, C/OF, Cubs

Catcher is the bleakest position in fantasy, and while I make it clear here that the top spot is not up for grabs, Contreras is a dark horse to become the second-most valuable player at the position in fantasy.

Contreras, 25, has been effective in his relatively short time in the majors. He’s also been consistent. His slash lines have been nearly identical in two seasons, and his counting stats have risen according to his playing time. This is really promising, because his career-high in plate appearances is just 428. 2018 should be the first year that the catching job belongs solely to Contreras; Kyle Schwarber is pretty much a full-time outfielder now (and possibly a platoon outfielder at that), and Victor Caratini is a classic backup backstop. Barring injury, Contreras should play around 140 games, and possibly more since he dabbles in the outfield. That gives him a chance to flirt with 30 home runs, with an elite (for a catcher) OPS and the potential to score 90ish runs in the Cubs’ lineup. While other owners are spending huge draft capital on Gary Sanchez, think about waiting a few rounds for Sanchez-lite.

Matt Olson, 1B/OF, Athletics

Olson didn’t play that much last season, but in only 59 games he was able to swat 24 home runs, and there’s ample evidence that this was no fluke. Olson, 23, smashed 23 homers in 2013 at Single-A, and followed that year up with a 37-homer campaign in 2014 at High-A. He hit 17 in each of the next two seasons, in Double-A and then Triple-A. He’s hit for tremendous power at every level of his development, and his rookie year was no different.

Now, power isn’t as scarce as it was a few years ago. It’s possible these days to be a 30-plus homer hitter and be littler more than waiver fodder if you can’t contribute elsewhere. Olson hasn’t hit better than .272 at any level beyond rookie ball, and hit .259 last year with his 24 dingers. I think there’s a lot of room for Olson to do much better.

In 2017 he was very unlucky, posting a .238 BABIP which leaves tons of room for his average to rise. He strikes out a lot – 27.2 strikeout percentage, but this is common for sluggers – but his on-base skills don’t suffer for it; Olson reached base at a .352 clip last year, and has consistently shown a propensity to take walks. Olson also hits the ball very hard. Olson made medium or hard contact 82.2 percent of the time he got wood on the ball, and while his 41.2 percent home run to fly ball ratio is not sustainable, he still looks like a 35+-homer guy with a full season of playing time.

Maikel Franco, 3B, Phillies

Franco may seem like more of a bounce back player than a breakout, until you realize he’s never put together a full, dominant campaign. Franco has hit 49 home runs over the last two seasons, but he hit just .255 in 2016, and his average sank to a weak .230 last season. Even more troubling, Franco’s OBP was an unseemly .281, which is a number that you can’t keep on your fantasy team. The thing is, Franco’s too damn talented to give up on.

The home runs will be there. He hit for power in the minors, and even though he’s struggled mightily with some aspects of hitting, he’s consistently in the mid-20s, and he’s only 25 years old.

There’s good reason to think he’ll hit for a much higher average; Franco hit .280 in 2015, and he was exceptionally unlucky last year with a .234 BABIP. That can destroy a season, and it did destroy Franco’s. Now he’s discounted – his ADP is 248 per NFBC.com – and he still possesses huge upside.

Danny Salazar, SP, Indians

Salazar was one of the most disappointing players in fantasy last season, posting an ugly 4.28 ERA and 1.34 WHIP and eventually needing to be bounced to the bullpen because he couldn’t get right. It was a strange year, and one that I do not believe will repeat itself.

Salazar’s big problem is control. He walks too many batters, always has, and certainly did last year (3.84 BB/9). If you draft Salazar, he’ll inevitably have a number of starts where he walks four or five batters and can’t last long enough for a quality start. But there were also tons of positives. For starters, he struck out damn near 13 batters per nine. That’s insane! He also notched a 3.48 FIP (my favorite pitching stat), which was well below his ugly ERA. I’m somewhat skeptical of xFIP, but in this case it bolsters my argument! Salazar’s xFIP was 3.21, which is not far off from an elite SP.

On the flip side, he was victimized by a .348 BABIP, the highest of his career, the highest HR/FB ratio of his career, and a strange downturn in ground ball percentage. Normally that’d raise my eyebrows, but the missing grounders became line drives rather than fly balls. His fly ball rate was nearly identical to the previous season, with the difference being more of them happened to leave the ballpark. Salazar is a classic positive regression candidate, and considering his filthy stuff, he could jump from the scrap heap to the elite category.

Pat Neshek, RP, Phillies

Neshek stands out on this list because he’s pretty old (37) for a “breakout” season. But last season was the finest of Neshek’s career, and now he’s moved to a team where he has a very good shot at playing his way into the closer role.

Neshek posted a 1.59 ERA for the Phillies and Rockies last season, and that number was fully supported by a similarly microscopic 1.86 FIP. He struck out 9.96 batters per nine, and whiffed just shy of 30 percent of batters faced. Not only was he a strikeout machine, he walked 0.87 per nine. That’s incredibly important for a high-leverage reliever like Neshek.

The major obstacle for Neshek is competition. Hector Neris is currently the closer, and former closer Tommy Hunter is also in the mix. But both Neris and Hunter outperformed their FIP in 2016, with Neris in particular posting a particularly ugly 4.21 xFIP. If those guys pitch closer to their FIP in 2018, it’ll be nearly impossible to keep Neshek from jumping both of them. In the meantime, he will provide you with great strikeout numbers and sparkling WHIP. He also may vulture some wins pitching in favorable late-game situations.