Fantasy Baseball 2018: The Base Running King

When you think of fantasy players who derive most of their value from their legs, you think of Reds OF Billy Hamilton. It’s not unreasonable. He stole 59 bases last season, swiped 56 or more bags every year since 2014, and per Fangraphs.com was worth 9.5 runs on the bases alone. That mark was good for second in MLB behind one man – Twins OF Byron Buxton.

Buxton was a bit of a bust last season, depending on how high you were on him in spring training. I know I wrote this at one point, having grown frustrated with him. I broke one of my rules; I tend to not give up on major prospects before their 25th birthday, and with Buxton I foolishly jumped the gun. Buxton slashed .300/.347/.546 in the second half of 2017, smashing 11 home runs and posting a robust .893 OPS. But…there was one area where he never struggled, and that was on the base paths.

Buxton has bounced up and down between MLB and the minors, at times looking terribly overmatched at the plate. But in his turbulent career he’s stolen 41 bases, and been caught just five times. That is impressive for a young speed demon, because it not only shows how ridiculously fast he is, he’s wise out there.

It’s not inconceivable to envision Buxton entering Hamilton’s world in terms of raw steals. It sounds like a reach for Buxton, who has never reached 30 yet, but his second half indicated a young star who has figured out the highest level. His second-half OBP of .347 is encouraging, because he is a threat to go any time he reaches base. He spent the whole first half of his best season yet barely ever getting on base! I’m expecting him steal around 40 bases in 2018 at minimum, with the potential to get crazy.

And his rating goes beyond pure steals, and his uncanny ability to not be caught. Fangraphs’ BsR stat encompasses extra bases taken, and a host of other things you can read up on right here. For the TL;DR, a BsR of 8 is considered “excellent.” Buxtons BsR was 11.7, several gallops ahead of Hamilton.

That mark helped Buxton finish the year as a 3.5-win player, and will make him extremely valuable to fantasy owners because he’ll score a boatload of runs. Buxton is currently projected to bat sixth for the Twins, but if he can keep getting on base consistently, he is a wet dream of a leadoff hitter. Buxton offers significant pop at the top of the order, but as long as he has a sold OBP, he offers league-best base running, and extremely high-percentage base stealing.