Fantasy Baseball 2018 Sleepers: Todd Frazier May Walk His Way To Relevance

For the last two seasons Todd Frazier hasn’t been very useful. He has been a fairly reliable source of power, but so deficient in batting average that he’s been barely playable for long stretches. It hasn’t always been this way, however, and I am not ready to pronounce Frazier dead.

He’s a free agent now, so where he lands could make a difference in how I feel. I won’t love it if he winds up in some power-hitter graveyard; if he lands in, say, back at Yankee Stadium, consider my argument bolstered.

I was too high on Frazier last season based on the .236 BABIP he posted in 2016. That’s a truly horrific stat, and one that typically corrects itself. But in 2017, it actually got worse. Frazier’s BABIP fell to .226, and he hit .213 for the season in 147 games (576 plate appearances). Frazier hasn’t done himself any favors by transforming into an extreme pull hitter, but those BABIPs are unsustainably terrible. I expect that number to rise, which could push Frazier’s batting average closer to .240ish; that’s not great by any means, but you can live with it.

In other aspects, Frazier was a better hitter in 2017 when he hit 27 home runs than in 2016 when he mashed 40. He’s developing a sharper batting eye, walking in a career-high 14.4 percent of his at-bats. His selectiveness is obvious looking at his plate discipline stats; Frazier swung at just 25 percent of pitches outside the zone, down from 30 in 2016, and made more contact on those outside the zone pitches when he did take hacks. He also saw his swinging strike rate drop by three points, and his OBP rise to .344, the highest mark of his career.

All of these numbers add up to a more mature hitter whose numbers haven’t reflected these upticks. Frazier’s walk rate was sixth among qualified hitters in 2017, behind Joey Votto, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Matt Carpenter and Edwin Encarnacion. Those are some big names, and with a little bit of luck Frazier has a great chance to be in the same breath as those guys in the home run race.

Lastly, Frazier will find himself in the lineup more often than not even if he slumps. That’s because he remains a plus defender, adding 6.3 runs last year with the leather. Frazier was a three-win player despite slashing .213/.344/.428 with fewer than 30 bombs. Teams will want to keep him at the hot corner – or first base – to save runs even in his periods where he’s not producing them.