Fantasy Baseball 2018 Breakout Pitchers: Lance McCullers Will Become A Star This Season
If you are looking for a breakout pitcher whom you can draft and potentially lean on as an SP1 or SP2, I think I’ve found your guy. Things are looking up for the Houston Astros’ fifth starter, Lance McCullers.
It’s not often a fifth starter is even fantasy-relevant, but this year’s defending champions have an embarrassment of riches all over their roster. McCullers, as of this writing, is my highest-ranked Astros starter for a number of reasons.
He’s A Classic FIP Case
McCullers pitched to an underwhelming 4.25 ERA last year over 118.2 innings last year, and a decidedly mediocre 1.30 WHIP. Peeking beneath the hood, though, reveals a pitcher who is steadily improving and has incredible potential. FIP – defined here – is a better indicator of future performance than ERA, and McCullers’ FIP at the end of 2017 was a cool 3.10. His xFIP, a bit more speculative a stat, corroborated that mark at 3.17. McCullers should’ve had a much more impressive ERA, but you should be thankful he underperformed; now you can snag him at a much more reasonable spot in the draft.
He’s A Strikeout Beast
Besides the large, positive gap between his FIP and ERA, my next favorite thing about McCullers is his awesome strikeout stuff. McCullers has struck out more than 10 batters per nine in back-to-back seasons, and in 2017 he cut his walk rate by two per nine. McCullers has always been prone to walking hitters, so his 3.03 free passes per nine may not dip too much lower, but if he can pitch enough innings his strikeout potential is elite.
He Had Bad Luck
McCullers pitched to a .330 BABIP in 2017, an above-average mark especially for a pitcher who misses as many bats as he does. One area in which Houston wasn’t elite was defensively; as a team, they posted the seventh-worst Defensive Efficiency mark (.682) in MLB per Baseball-reference.com, the third-worst UZR per Fangraphs, and the second-worst defensive rating (-38.9). McCullers did not have much help from the gloves behind him in 2017, and that was also reflected in his LOB%, which shows he stranded just 67.6 percent of runners. A better defense would have helped him, but he wasn’t working with a single above-average defender behind him. Most pitchers would accept the defensive tradeoff to pitch for a lineup as potent as Houston’s, but it did have an effect on McCullers’ season. That defense hasn’t changed much, but BABIP tends to self-correct.
His Curveball is One of the Best Pitches in MLB
McCullers has gotten this far with one above-average pitch. That may be hard to believe, but last season his fastball was worth -2.1 runs above average, and his changeup was worth -6.7. His curveball, however, was 14.9 runs above average.
McCullers’ fastball was nine runs better in 2017 than it was in 2016, an improvement that isn’t surprising considering he hasn’t even hit his 25th birthday. This guy is getting better, and if he can turn that fastball into a plus pitch – keep in mind he averages 94.7 mph on that heater – he may go from occasionally spectacular to consistently dominant, much like Luis Severino was for the Yankees.