Fantasy Baseball 2017 Preview: Deep Sleepers Outside Top 200 ADP Hitters
Looking for deep sleepers? You’re in luck. Here are some of my favorite position player deep sleepers, which I’m defining as players whose average draft position (ADP) sits outside the Top 200.
All ADP data is courtesy of FantasyPros.com.
Infield
Joe Panik, 2B, Giants (ADP: 276)
Nobody wants Panik after he slashed .239/.315/.379 with 10 home runs and five steals. I understand how production like that can turn you green when the next year’s draft comes along. But allow me to point out his vomit-inducing .245 BABIP, which is unreal in terms of bad luck. Let me point out how his walk rate increased a tad, while his strikeout rate fell. And let me add that he was worth nearly 10 runs with his glove, meaning he’ll be trotted out there for at bats even if he hits a rough patch. If you believe that his BABIP should regress (positively) then you’ll be getting a .300 hitter after No. 300. If he gives you any power and/or speed its gravy.
Jedd Gyorko, 1B/2B/SS/3B, Cardinals (ADP: 236)
I’ve talked about Gyorko a bit in the position previews, but it’s crazy that he’s going this late. Yes, he’s let us all down at some point in his career, but he’s not old (28), and he hit 30 home runs in only 128 games! Call it a fluke if you want, but he was always expected to hit for major power. Gyorko hit just .243 last year, but he was saddled with a .244 BABIP. That’s low AF. Gyorko’s power is real, and he has upside in the batting average department. The names directly above him and below him are as follows: Eric Thames, Stephen Vogt. Gimme a break.
Outfield
Matt Holliday, 1B/OF, Yankees (ADP: 244)
Holliday was once a perennial top pick, but has now settled into an oldish afterthought. Overlook Holliday at your own risk, because his situation is magnificent. Holliday has the potential to be 2017’s Carlos Beltran; he has similar power, plays in the same bandbox of a home park, and will be mostly DHing, which greatly increases his chances of staying healthy. Holliday’s biggest issues lately have been durability – no surprise as he is a 37-year-old man – but Holliday still cranked 20 home runs and posted a .215 ISO in 110 games.
Jarrod Dyson, OF, Mariners (ADP: 225)
Dyson is going to get his first major crack at an everyday role…I think. If so, there’s a lot to like. He’s stolen 30+ bases in four of the last five seasons, despite being a part-time player in all of them. He posted a career-high .340 on-base percentage in 2016, with a career-high .278 batting average that wasn’t artificially boosted by a ridiculous BABIP. Given a permanent spot atop Seattle’s lineup, Dyson could steal upward of 45 bases, without costing you too much elsewhere. Consider him a nice source of average, steals, and runs; he’ll hurt badly in the home run department, but his on-base skills could keep him from being a total liability if your league uses OPS.
Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees (ADP: 296)
Homer pick? Sure, a little bit. I’m a Yankees fan and I want Judge to do well. But have you seen him do stuff like this?
It’s hard not to look at Judge, squint, and see Giancarlo Stanton. He has A1 power, and reports are that he’s done some work on his swing to cut down on his strikeouts. Those strikeouts are clearly his biggest issue; he whiffed 44 percent of the time in his first tour of the big leagues, and if that persists, he’ll find himself in Triple A. But if he cuts it down? Really there’s no limit to how many homers he could mash. I’d guess he bangs out 30+ this year, with that strikeout rate determining how useful those bombs are.