Fantasy Baseball 2017 Preview: 5 Sleepers With Low ADP Thanks to Injury
I’m all about value when drafting, so I’ll search high and low for it. One way to get a nice price on a player is to take a bit of a risk, and place faith in someone who had a down year – or missed a season entirely – due to injury. Right below, you’ll see five players who were non-factors in 2016 thanks to their ailments, and have seen their sticker price drop.
All ADP is courtesy of FantasyPros.com.
1. A.J. Pollock, OF, Diamondbacks (ADP: 35): Pollock is going 35th overall, as the 10th OF off the board, and which places him at the back end of the third round in a 12-team draft. That’s not late by any means, but Pollock in 2016 was an acceptable first round pick. Pollock’s always been pretty good, but in 2015 he erupted like Mount Vesuvius. Look at this production: .315/.367/.498 with 20 home runs, 39 stolen bases, and a whopping 111 runs scored. He was a five-category monster. Prior to that explosion, he’d consistently hit for average and stolen bases, so the power was a treat. We can’t know if the 20-HR power will remain or prove to be a fluke, but with his current ADP you’d be nuts at that point in the draft to not run with Pollock.
2. Matt Harvey, SP, Mets (ADP: 130): Harvey is going 34th at his position, and there’s valid reason. He missed all of 2014 after Tommy John surgery, and was atrocious last season before being shut down to have surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. I won’t pretend to be Doogie Howser and tell you all about TOS, but it’s a condition not everyone comes back from. That said, it’s hard to find higher upside past Round 10 of a 12-team draft. When Harvey is right – let’s call 2015 right – he’s striking out a batter an inning with a sub-2.00 walk rate. And I need to be fair to Harvey on this point as well; as horrific as 2016 was with the TOS, he posted a 3.47 FIP, which is drastically better than his 4.86 ERA. Even if he doesn’t recapture his form, he is due for positive regression regardless.
3. Garrett Richards, SP, Angels (ADP: 211): Richards is basically a flier right now, despite the Angels banking on him to be a No. 1 starter. He had a torn UCL last season, which typically means Tommy John surgery, which typically means missing more than a full MLB season. Richards, however, treated it with stem cells and complicated doctor things, avoiding surgery. Richards claims to feel awesome, and he’s on track to be ready for Opening Day. If he’s himself, that means getting a guy who strikes out nearly a batter per inning, who posted a 2.14 ERA in his 34.2 innings of work last season. In 2016 he pitched to a 3.65 ERA over 207 innings. Richards is unlikely to ever be elite because of his high walk rate, and his WHIP trends higher than fantasy aces, but he can definitely poke into No. 2 fantasy starter territory.
4. Alex Cobb, SP, Rays (ADP:359): Cobb returned last year from Tommy John surgery and gave Tampa Bay 22 dreadful innings. My advice? Throw it out. In the two season prior, Cobb was under a 3.00 ERA, posting FIP numbers that didn’t exceed a 3.40, and striking out eight batters per nine with sub-3.00 walk rates. Before last season, Cobb had never posted a FIP higher than 3.67, and he had developed into a pitcher who kept his WHIP in the 1.15 range. Cobb, if healthy, is a very useful pitcher and this is entirely too late for him to be going. He has the potential to crack the Top 30.
5. Lance Lynn, SP, Cardinals (ADP: 347): Lynn missed all of 2016 recovering from Tommy John, so there’s some potential for him to wind up like Cobb, at least for the beginning of 2017. That said Lynn, 29, has been a remarkably consistent pitcher prior to his injury. Lynn has been below a 4.00 ERA every year since 2011, with consistent FIP numbers. When healthy he’s an innings-eater, although that probably won’t be the case until the second half of 2017. Most importantly, Lynn is a starter for the Cardinals, which means you can bank on him as a source of at least 12-15 wins.