Fantasy Baseball 2017 Preview: 4 Stars Who Will Bounce Back in 2017
I tend to focus quite a bit on names you may not know that will contribute to winning fantasy teams, but what about the names you do know that let you down? Which players will return to their star status?
Here are four that will play their way back into your good graces.
All ADP data is courtesy of FantasyPros.com.
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins (ADP: 38)
Stanton is going in the fourth round of a 12-team league, and he’s currently the 11th outfielder off the board. That is pretty absurd for a player who has a legitimate chance to finish as the No. 1 player overall. I made a case for Stanton’s stock to rise here, but allow me to make it again.
Stanton had a rough year before getting hurt in 2016, and that rough year saw him finish with 27 home runs and a .240/.326/.489 slash line. His walk and strikeout rates remained pretty much identical to 2015, when he was on a ridiculous home run pace. The only big difference was his home run to fly ball ratio. He has smacked 54 home runs in the last two seasons, and he hasn’t topped 119 games in either campaign. Stanton’s power is prodigious. It is righteous. But it isn’t the only reason to draft him high.
Stanton also has the potential to hit for average, and contribute on the bases. In 2014 Stanton hit .288, and in 2012 he hit .290. With a bit of BABIP luck that’s in reach for baseball’s premier slugger. The stolen bases are more of a pipe dream, but he swiped 13 bags in 2014. If he can steal even 10 bags, that would be amazing.
Chris Archer, Rays (ADP: 53)
Archer was highly disappointing to fantasy owners who drafted him as an ace, but there are reasons to continue trusting him as such. For starters, he strikes out almost 30 percent of the hitters he faces. That’s pretty ridiculous. He’s also quietly an innings-eater who has surpassed 200 innings pitched for two consecutive seasons. Archer’s strikeouts have been consistent for three years, and his walks – which generate a lot of chatter – were not drastically worse in 2016 than they had been previously. The only significant difference in 2016 for Archer is that his HR/FB rate jumped to 16.2 percent; in 2014 it was 6.9 percent, and in 2015 it was 10.4 percent. Beyond that there were no notable changes in his pitch selection, velocity, walk rate, strikeout rate, or BABIP. Archer is, dare I say it, safe.
Wade Davis, Cubs (ADP: 87)
Davis is the new Cubs closer, and yet he’s only the sixth RP off the board. How?
He has not posted an ERA higher than 1.07 in three years, and even though he walked more than three batters per nine innings last year, his FIP only climbed to 2.29. His strikeout rate fell a tad, but it was still better than a batter per inning. Another interesting note on Davis is that he’s extremely home run averse, which is a blessing for relievers. He pitched 72 innings in 2014 and didn’t give up a single home run. That wasn’t a fluke, because Davis also gave up zero homers in 2016 over 43.1 innings. The forearm troubles and resulting DL stints last year were not ideal, but the positives are outweighing that; he’s the closer for the defending champions, with a sub-1.00 ERA over the last three years.
Lorenzo Cain, Royals (ADP: 122)
There weren’t many bigger letdowns last year than Cain, who slashed .287/.339/.408 with nine home runs and 14 stolen bases. Those aren’t brutal numbers, but Cain only played in 103 games and was expected to be a 15-homer, 30-steal guy. The thing is, he can still do that. His HR/FB ratio didn’t fall much from 2015 (11.2 percent to 9.5 percent), and his stolen base pace was only slightly off. Cain’s falloff was simply due to a lack of at-bats thanks to injury. Now, Cain has never played in more than 140 games, but if he can just reach that number he will be an across the board producer for your team.