Fantasy Baseball 2017 Preview: 5 Incredible Bargains, And Their Overpriced Comparisons
Want to know what real fantasy value looks like? Read about these five players, and compare them to counterparts who are going way in front of them. Spotting these values will not only help you win, it will make the fantasy season so much more fun.
All ADP data is courtesy of FantasyPros.com.
Robbie Ray, SP Diamondbacks (ADP: 202)/Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners (ADP: 101)
Blasphemy? Disrespectful to King Felix? Just look at the numbers man. I don’t think I’ve ever been more sure of a bust than Felix Hernandez this year, and he’s going 101 spots ahead of my namesake adjace Robbie Ray. Now I can’t say with certainty that Robbie Ray is going to take your team to the next level, but his upside is such that it’s what you think you’re getting when you draft Hernandez.
Last season Ray struck out 11.27 batters per nine, which is ridiculous. His ERA was a stomach-turning 4.90, but his FIP sat much lower at 3.76, an excellent sign for future success. And yeah, he walked 3.67 batters per nine, which is too much. Felix walked 3.82 per nine though. Comparing the two, Ray struck out more hitters, walked slightly fewer, posted a far superior FIP, and is six years younger than Hernandez. Take away the name value from King Felix, and he’s a pitcher you wouldn’t touch until the late rounds.
Need some more? Ray’s BABIP was an unfortunate .352, while Hernandez was downright lucky, posting a .271 BABIP. That kind of split explains the gaps between their ERAs and FIPs; and the one with the favorable gap is the one going after pick 200.
Tim Anderson, SS, White Sox (ADP: 212)/Jose Peraza, 2B/SS/3B/OF, Reds (ADP: 135)
You’d draft Peraza for his steals potential. And he sure is promising on the base paths. Last year he stole 21 bags in only 72 games, and he’s swiped as many as 64 in a single season as a minor leaguer. The thing is, Peraza has absolutely NO power. Think Juan Pierre. So at No. 135 overall, are you sure you want to only get stolen bases and maybe batting average?
Why not wait for a player like Anderson instead? Anderson is very fast, and he did steal 10 bags in 99 games last year in the big leagues while only being caught twice. He’s never stolen 64 bags like Peraza in the minors, but he did take 49 in Double-A in 2015. Better yet, Anderson has consistently hit for high average at every level, and shown he has enough pop to reach double-digit home runs. That isn’t much, but if it’s part of a package that includes 35+ steals, he’s a far better pick than Peraza at No. 135.
Blake Snell, SP, Rays (ADP: 243)/Jeff Samardzija, SP, Giants (ADP: 177)
Snell and Samardzija are stark contrasts in some ways. Snell is all upside. He struck out a tick fewer than 10 batters per nine, and he was consistently in the double-digits throughout his minor league career. He also walked 5+ per nine last year, and pitched just 89 innings; those innings came with a 3.54 ERA (good!) a 1.62 WHIP (ew!) and surprisingly low fly ball rate (36.1 percent).
Samardzija -- again, going 66 picks earlier – hasn’t posted better than a 7.39 K/9 in two years, and hasn’t ever put up a strikeout rate like Snell’s in his career. He has posted an ERA higher than 4.32 twice since 2013, and has never won more than 13 games. Samardzija is the definition of “just okay,” whereas Snell can offer borderline ace-caliber production many rounds later.
Kevin Pillar, OF, Blue Jays (ADP: 324)/Adam Eaton, OF, Nationals (ADP: 135)
Think it’s a stretch? In 2015 Pillar hit 12 home runs and stole 25 bases to go with a .278/.314/.399 slash line. As I wrote here, Pillar has the luxury of playing time despite being in a crowded Toronto outfield thanks to his world-class defense. Last season he notched seven homers and 14 stolen bases in 13 fewer games (44 fewer plate appearances); those numbers don’t sound amazing, but they’re surprisingly useful to deep league players.
In comparison, let’s see what Eaton did in 2016, and compare it to Pillar’s 2015. He put up 14 home runs, 14 steals and a .287/.362/.428 slash line. It’s marginally better, and Pillar almost doubled up Eaton in steals. The Nationals paid a premium for Eaton this offseason, but why would you want to take Eaton 189 spots ahead of where Pillar goes?
Travis d’Arnaud, C, Mets (ADP: 286)/Salvador Perez, C, Royals (ADP: 149)
Yes, d’Arnaud was an abject disaster in 2016. There’s no way around that. But after the top three of Posey, Lucroy and Sanchez, this position is a graveyard. In a 12-team league, Perez is going in the 12th round. What Perez can reliably give you is 20 home runs, and right around 70 RBI.
In 2014 and 2015, d’Arnaud was on pace to approach 20 home runs – he hit 13 and 12, respectively, in 108 and 67 games – with better walk rates and fewer strikeouts. Health is of course a major factor in d’Arnaud’s ADP; he has never played in more than 108 games. But health is no longer on Perez’s side either, as he’s failed to top 142 games in each of the past two seasons. d’Arnaud has all the potential to meet and exceed Perez’s annual production, and while he’s difficult to trust to make the requisite amount of starts, you’re also spending the final pick in your draft, mitigating that risk.