On the Move: Breaking Down Stefon Diggs on the Patriots

One of the last big names in the WR free agent class has found a home, with Stefon Diggs joining the New England Patriots and returning to the ranks of the NFL’s WR1s. Now 31 years old and coming off a torn ACL, however, can Diggs return to being a fantasy WR1? Let’s discuss.

Like the other big names who have moved this offseason, Diggs is a veteran who has been a dominant WR1 in the past, but now carries questions as to whether he’s about to fall off the production cliff, has begun his descent in his career, or if he still has a little bit of time left as a high-end option.

It’s clear that Diggs is no longer a top tier WR1. Diggs as recently as 2022 was a first round pick, and that’s not the case anymore. His final numbers in 2023 in Buffalo looked dine, but they were heavily frontloaded, and he murdered fantasy managers down the stretch of the season. When he signed with the Texans, it was unclear if he would benefit from being around other supremely talented players, or if they’d just relegate him to irrelevance. What ended up happening, was Diggs provided big value to Houston’s passing game while showing that those first round days were really done.

Diggs has certainly lost some juice, as evidenced by his sub-50% success rate on nines last year per Reception Perception, but his reputation as a master route technician remains intact. Despite his decreased effectiveness as a big play threat, Diggs logged a career-high number of snaps in the slot for Houston and averaged 5.9 receptions and 62 yards in eight games. His average depth of target fell to 8.7 yards, the first time it had dipped into single digits since his rookie season, but that tracks with his role on the Texans and what he still does well. Diggs posted above-average success rates vs. man (71.6%), zone (78.8%), and press (71.4%). He also excelled running outs (75%), slants (79.7%), and flat routes (88%) while hitting 70% on digs.

Now that he’s joining the Patriots as their alpha, it’s key that he maintains these success rates because his volume is about to go way up. He’s joining a WR room that did not include a Top 50 WR per PFF in 2024. The Patriots had the NFL’s No. 24 Pass DVOA per FTN Fantasy, and no pass-catcher hit 100 targets. Their top pass-catcher was TE Hunter Henry, who led the team in targets (97), receptions (66, tied with Demario Douglas), and receiving yards (674). This team desperately needs a pass-catcher who can consistently get open, move the chains, and provide developing QB Drake Maye with security. Of course, you’d want a WR1 to be able to take the top off a defense in addition to what Diggs can still do, but beggars can’t be choosers, and the current free agent/trade market did not have those types of talents readily available.

So far, it sounds very much like I’ve made the case that Diggs remains a capable receiver, who is in line for a big target bump from last season – and keep in mind, he saw six or more targets in all of his eight games in 2024. But there are two red flags to consider strongly. First, is he’s coming off a torn ACL. The word on the street is he’ll be ready for Week 1, but that doesn’t mean he will be in fine form by Week 1. A receiver in his 30s who was showing declining athleticism and speed before tearing an ACL is not great. The second is Drake Maye. While he showed a ton of potential as a rookie, and I’m a believer in him as a value for fantasy managers on Draft Day, he’s pretty raw. Maye’s passing grade on PFF checked in lower than Justin Fields’. He averaged just 175.1 yards per game through the air, and threw 10 interceptions to go along with his 15 touchdowns in 12 starts. Maye’s got upside, yes, but Diggs is coming from Josh Allen and C.J. Stroud. It’s a downgrade at QB, coming off injury, and joining an offense that posted the fifth-worst Weighted DVOA in the league.

Diggs’ ADP last season was No. 37 overall, as the WR19. It would be shocking if it’s still there come Draft Day, but this is probably his ceiling as the only show in town for the Pats if he’s really healthy come Week 1. If Diggs is going as the WR30 or so, he’ll represent a value. If he’s going even later than that, he should be a steal. If it’s closer to his 2024 ADP, however, that seems like drafting the man at is ceiling, and that’s not a recipe for winning fantasy leagues.