On The Move: Breaking Down Geno Smith, Sam Darnold and Jameis Winston On New Teams

Several QBs have changed teams this offseason, and while none of them are necessarily league-shifting signings or trades, these moves can and will have big impacts on the QBs’ new teams, and skill players.

The two major ones are Geno Smith, who was traded from the Seahawks to the Las Vegas Raiders, and Sam Darnold, who was allowed to leave the Vikings in free agency and was snapped up by Seattle to replace Smith. Smith joining the Raiders made all the sense in the world. Smith is reunited with Pete Carroll, who believed in him and oversaw the resurrection of his career, but Darnold is a very interesting choice for a Seattle team that seems confused as to whether it’s trying to compete or rebuild.

We begin with Smith, who is more straightforward to analyze. He’s on the older side for a starting QB (34), but he represents a massive upgrade from Las Vegas’ arguably league-worst QB situation last season. This team struggled with Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew all year, with some Desmond Ridder sprinkled in. Smith has never set the world on fire, but he is a proven, quality passer. He was a 2nd round draft bust years ago, and a longtime backup and that really threw all of us off his scent. But since Carroll entrusted him to replace Russell Wilson three years ago, Smith has been among the league’s steadiest and most accurate passers. Last year he graded out as the No. 9 QB per PFF, and he finished seventh in the NFL in yards per game (254.1) and fifth in completion percentage (70.4%). 

According to Reception Perception, Smith was accurate and successful at all levels of the field, and carved up zone coverage to the tune of an 87.3% success rate. He was a surgeon last season, putting up the best Bad Throw percentage in the entire league (10.2%), and one of the elite On Target marks (78.2%). The Raiders are seeking competency for one of the NFL’s most downtrodden offenses, and Smith brings that. Now, he doesn’t run much. He’s an athletic player, but he’s in the “pocket passer” bucket as far as fantasy goes, meaning you need about 4,000 yards and 35+ touchdowns for him to compete with the dual threat guys. Even at his best, he’s always fallen short of this. He has surpassed 4,000 yards comfortably in two of the last three seasons, but he peaked at 30 TDs in 2022, and has never thrown more than 21 in any other season. Smith will be a fine streaming option, or QB2 in SuperFlex formats, but if you are hunting late for a low-risk, cheap QB who can finish in the back end of the Top 10 Smith is not really that guy. He is, however, a major boost to TE Brock Bowers, WR Jakobi Meyers, and the running game just because he can operate a real NFL offense.

Now Darnold has hit those key pocket passer benchmarks. Last season he stunned the world by throwing for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns while winning 14 games for the Vikings. You’d think that’d be enough for a long term deal with Minnesota, but the fact that it wasn’t should be a red flag for the Seahawks. Darnold has the draft pedigree for his 2024 to make sense as a late breakout, and he often passes the eye test with spectacular plays and throws. His Reception Perception breakdown does highlight some shaky findings. He’s flashier than Smith, but his deep and intermediate success rates were a good bit lower than Smith’s. His play noticeably suffered under pressure too, and he’s joining a team that had the NFL’s seventh-worst pass blocking line per PFF.

Darnold is also going from a skill group of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson to a stripped down group headlined by Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a high-ceiling player who isn’t yet proven as an alpha, and new signing Cooper Kupp, who could potentially be washed up. One area where Darnold did thrive was on short routes, so linking him with Kupp makes a lot of sense in theory. But Kupp also is a slot receiver who pushes JSN from the slot where he had most of his 2024 success. Kupp’s Seattle fit was broken down here, but it’s safe to say that this WR has been downgraded from when it included D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Maybe Darnold was transformed in 2024, and he is just one of the top passers in the league now, but I think it’s more likely that he was in a phenomenal situation with top-end pass catchers and a very bright offensive mind (Kevin O’Connell) maximizing his gifts. The new regime in Seattle could well build around Darnold too and succeed, but I would place him in the same tier as Smith as a fantasy option and he's likely to be more sought after than that.

Lastly, we have what is potentially the most fun move of the QB carousel, Jameis Winston to the Giants. Anything is possible! Winston could get benched, Russell Wilson could sign with Big Blue and relegate him to being a backup before the season even starts, or…he could breathe life into one of the most moribund offenses 2024 had to offer. We all know the drawbacks of Jameis; he makes very bad decisions at times, commits back-breaking turnovers, and throws a ton of interceptions. We have also seen him put up fat stats when he’s allowed to play a whole season.

There have been three seasons in which Winston played all year, 2015, 2016 and 2019. In those three seasons he’s never thrown for less than 4,000 yards, and in 2019 he threw for over 5,100 yards with 33 touchdowns. He also threw 30 interceptions, making it one of the wildest seasons a QB has ever had. When he’s given free reign – and here, unless the Giants add Wilson or draft Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward, he’ll have it – Winston is a lock for 250+ yards per game. Only eight QBs hit that mark in 2024. Winston also sends WR Malik Nabers’ stock through the stratosphere. In 2015, Mike Evans put up 1,200 yards with Jameis, with the next most productive pass-catcher being Charles Sims at 561 yards. The following season Evans put up 1,321 yards and 12 touchdowns with Cameron Brate clocking in next with 660 yards. If your offense is built around one pass-catcher, and this one is, that man will eat. And in 2019, both Evans posted 1,157 yards while Chris Godwin led the team with 1,333 yards. They put up those numbers in 13 and 14 games, respectively, and combined for 17 receiving touchdowns. Even last season, with injuries hurting Cleveland’s running game Winston had three games with 300+ passing yards and a 497-yard game in Week 13 vs. Denver.

It is not out of the realm of possibility that Winston is the best fantasy QB out of these three. If I was throwing a late-draft dart, I’d roll with Jameis in the hopes that he drowns out his negative plays with raw production. Of course, he’s the highest-risk of these options because, barring injury, Smith and Darnold have elite job security whereas Winston has among the least of any NFL starter. So there’s that. At the end of the day, none of these QBs should be viewed as Top 10 options, or season-long options outside of two-QB formats. Smith and Winston, however, are definitely factors that raise the stock of Meyers, Bowers and Nabers. JSN should be unaffected by Darnold’s arrival, but Kupp should be downgraded pretty heavily from a year ago when he was with Matthew Stafford.