Distressed Assets To Buy Low On: Discarded Players Who Can Go From Trash To Treasure

One man’s trash is another man’s treasure! One of the joys of fantasy is seeing the value in players that others have left for dead, and having those players help spearhead victories. Not all of the players below will have league-winning ceiling, but all of them can absolutely be contributors to winning, and they’re all being drafted well below what they can potentially bring to the table.

Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers (ADP: 102, QB15)

Herbert is unquestionably one of the most talented QBs in football, and for many people considered a Top 5 player at the sport’s most critical position. So if he has youth, physical talent and previous jaw-dropping success to look on, why is he being undervalued? First, he’s coming off the worst year of his career, and it was genuinely bad from a fantasy standpoint, not just bad “for Justin Herbert.” He fell below 4,000 yards for the first time, dealt with injuries, and was comfortably below 30 TD passes for the second straight season. But his awful 2023 was largely explainable.

Los Angeles’ offensive line was porous, allowing him to be sacked at a 6.4% rate. This line was also the NFL’s worst run-blocking unit, turning this offense predictable, and one-dimensional. Compounding matters, Herbert had some of the league’s worst receivers to throw to; aside from Keenan Allen, who was excellent, no other receiver was inside PFF’s Top 60! Mike Williams only made it through three games, and Joshua Palmer (63rd), Alex Erickson (78th) and first round bust Quentin Johnston (94th!!) all failed to pick up the slack and help their star QB.

Herbert still possesses maybe the most physical talent in the NFL, and even in the stressful chaos of 2023 managed to shine both under pressure (56.4% success under duress per Reception Perception) and on third and fourth downs. This is key to keeping drives alive, and this offense should be more functional under the stewardship of Jim Harbaugh. Herbert is also an underrated asset on the ground; yardage isn’t his bag, but he’s averaged at least 3.2 attempts per game in each of his four seasons, and in three of his four campaigns has rushed for three or more touchdowns.

Lastly, there is a narrative that he won’t be unleashed because of Harbaugh’s three yards and a cloud of dust proclivities. Yes, we’ve seen Harbaugh often focus on establishing the running game. We also saw him let Andrew Luck rip it when he coached him at Stanford. Harbaugh isn’t going to take over a team with a stud like Herbert and make everything around Gus Edwards. While players like CJ Stroud and Jordan Love – both fantastic QBs! – are going 40-50 picks ahead of Herbert you can add depth in other spots and achieve that same upside with a much later pick.

Tyler Allgeier, RB, Falcons (ADP: 163, RB53)

Allgeier has been discarded completely because of the new regime in Atlanta that we’re all hoping will finally use their insane skill players, particularly RB Bijan Robinson, properly. And while we should all expect big things from Robinson, there’s a pesky problem; Allgeier is just really freaking good. This is a fifth-round player who only started seven games as a rookie and managed to rush for more than 1,000 yards. He was PFF’s No. 7 graded RB in 2024, maintaining excellent marks despite his yards per carry declining from 4.9 yards as a rookie to 3.7. And while we are all eagerly anticipating new coaches taking the reins off Robinson both in the red zone and as a receiver, some of that receiving work may have to come on early downs.

What was lost in the complaining about Allgeier’s usage last year is that he graded out significantly better than Robinson as a receiver (81 vs. Bijan’s 61.5), and he was PFF’s top pass-blocking RB. That’s no small factor considering they have a veteran QB in Kirk Cousins coming off a torn Achilles, and a rookie backup in Michael Penix Jr. who has a lengthy injury history. Oh, and neither of these QBs run a lick. Allgeier is going to be on the field on obvious passing downs, and he’s proven more than capable of hammering home TDs, meaning if he’s on the field when Atlanta gets close, they’re not always going to force Bijan back out there. Allgeier will have a locked in role in this offense regardless of Robinson, and he becomes a league-winner if Robinson were to get hurt. That level of upside is almost unheard of at an ADP like this.

Jahan Dotson, WR, Commanders (ADP: 140, WR62)

Dotson sure broke some hearts in 2023, following up a surprisingly strong rookie campaign with only 49 catches, 518 yards and four TDs. It was Dotson’s second campaign to start his career coming in under 530 yards, so you’re forgiven for thinking that I’m wishing on a star here. But smarter folks than me say Dotson is a damn good receiver who suffered from a poorly designed offense in 2023 with shoddy QB play.

Individually, what we liked about Dotson in 2022 was showing up. He still beat man at a great rate (70.6%), especially for his size, and he beat up zone at an almost 80% clip. There are some holes in his game, namely a lack of yardage after the catch which do limit his ceiling in a PPR sense because he’s not likely to draw as many short screens and easy targets in the flats that can become big gains. But there is more positive looking ahead than negative.

Washington saw Curtis Samuel, TE Logan Thomas and RB Antonio Gibson depart, vacating 228 targets from last season that will now be coming from the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, Jayden Daniels. The departure of Samuel is particularly important, because Dotson can play more in the slot where he’s best suited. This establishes Dotson as the clear-cut WR2 on the team, and his skill set dovetails with Daniels’ well. We know Dotson isn’t a freak in space, but he is shockingly good down the field for a smaller receiver, posting success rates of 74.3% on posts, 62.5% on corners and 56.3% on nines. He also will continue to be a favorite for Daniels in the end zone, after putting up back-to-back seasons of 80%+ contested catch rates. While TDs are a tricky, fickle stat, Dotson did score seven as a rookie, and his toolbox is well-suited to scoring. At this late of an ADP, he can’t hurt your team, and he’s likely to become valuable depth during the year.