2024 Team Previews: Miami Dolphins
Miami Dolphins 2024 Preview:
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
Tyreek Hill, WR (ADP: 3, WR2): There isn’t a lot that needs to be said about Hill, who is as dominant a fantasy receiver as you’ll see. This guy isn’t just an F1 car in human form, he’s unbeatable like he’s being driven by Max Verstappen. There isn’t a route he can’t run, nor a DB he can’t terrorize with his unreal speed. And it isn’t just that he’s Olympic track star fast, he’s a true technician and master of the craft, in an offense that’s optimized to capitalize on his talent. It’s hard to provide “value” when you are in the Top 3, but after back-to-back seasons of 1,700+ yards and 13 touchdowns to go with it in 2023, there are zero issues drafting him here, or even at No. 1 overall.
**De’Von Achane, RB (ADP: 21, RB8): Achane’s ADP is going to scare some managers, and it’ll become scarier as we approach Draft Day, because it’ll probably rise. His ADP hints at an increase in usage from last season, but I’m not convinced there will be a big jump in that respect. You’ll remember that I was an Achane booster last season, ranking him highly in my 2023 rookie rankings and saying “if he can get around 10-12 touches a game – questionable! – his big play ability renders him a FLEX option. It turned out I was not optimistic enough, as he turned 8.7 opportunities (carries + targets) per game into 16.2 fantasy points. Achane was an animal, averaging 7.8 yards per rush and over 70 yards per game on fewer than 10 attempts. He scored 11 total touchdowns, five of which came from 10 yards out or further, and two from 65+ yards out. Achane was exactly what I envisioned, but souped up because this offense is built for him, much like it is Tyreek Hill.
With that said, Raheem Mostert finished 2023 with 21 touchdowns, tied for the league lead with Christian McCaffery. After a great season like that, we cannot simply expect the Dolphins to reduce his workload to put more wear and tear on Achane, who was this devastating in a limited role. That’s the bad news. The good news is that even a slight bump up to what I initially dreamed up – 10 to 12 touches – is enough to justify this ADP and even exceed it. Achane is that explosive and talented of a player, and this offense is such a perfect ecosystem for him.
If you think his efficiency was unsustainable, consider that he was PFF’s top graded RB in 2023, ahead of CMC. He was the No. 1 graded rusher (93.1), the sixth-best graded receiver among RBs (77.7), and he graded well as a pass-blocker too. Achane was a top back in 2023 while dealing with injuries and single-digit touches per game, so there is nowhere to go but up.
**Jaylen Waddle, WR (ADP: 27, WR15): It’s hard for any offense, even one as potent as this, to consistently feed so many fantasy options. Waddle fell victim to this a bit in 2023, but if it causes him to drop on Draft Day then congratulations. Waddle’s “bad” year wasn’t really all that bad. He caught 72 passes for 1,014 yards and four touchdowns, and the touchdowns were really what kept us disappointed. But while his production was shakier than we’d liked, his play remained stellar. He still cleared 70% success vs. man, and he was in the 85th percentile in the league (82.9% success) vs. zone. He even improved his work against press coverage, upping his success to 72% and finishing in the 68th percentile.
We also saw Waddle mature as a receiver, handling the more traditional X receiver role in this offense while Mike McDaniel used Hill as the queen of the chessboard. Only 11.5% of his routes were nines despite being one of the league’s fastest receivers, while he ran more slants and digs this season to resounding success rates of 82.8% and 81.6%. If you drafted him last year believing he was one of the best receivers in football capable of operating as a WR1, then you should believe all the same things now. Touchdowns are fickle, and he’s a big time positive regression candidate in that area, especially considering the absurd TD total Mostert put up. I’d be pumped about Waddle at this ADP.
**Raheem Mostert, RB (ADP: 88, RB27): Mostert’s 2023 was absolutely insane, because it was his ninth season in the league, and he’d never before approached this level of success. He’d never even whiffed it. He’s long been an efficiency player fantasy managers dreamed on that one day he’d receive more volume. And when it happened, it was glorious, in an offense that knows exactly how to deploy blinding speed. With Hill, Waddle and Achane around, Mostert is basically a tortoise for the Dolphins, but he averaged a very healthy 4.8 yards per carry, and punched in a ridiculous 18 rushing TDs. He’ll have to cede a bit of work to Achane, who was sentient lightning, but expect Mostert to still handle goal line work and probably full series to keep Achane from breaking. I’d bet on Mostert to have fewer touchdowns than he did last season, but still be a great value on this ADP. He finished as the RB2 last year, so dropping him 25 spots seems drastic when it is very obvious that Achane’s not going to be a workhorse, and will never be one.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB (ADP: 108, QB14): Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards, and has maybe the most absurd collection of skill players in the league. And yet, this ADP seems just right, because he is a zero on the ground, carries major injury risk, and, for all these great players, hasn’t actually gotten to 30 touchdowns in a season. Part of that was Miami’s success on the ground, but Tua also threw 14 interceptions last year, and lacks the tight window arm strength that is often needed to throw TDs from in close.
Should you decide to wait until late on QB, Tua is a very safe option to not kill you at the position and also provide huge spike games, but be aware that he isn’t a separator at the position.
Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)
Jaylen Wright, RB (ADP: 150, RB47): Wright is yet another speedster who can probably make noise on this team if given the opportunity. He was hyper efficient at Tennessee, putting up over 1,000 rushing yards on just 137 carries while catching 22 passes as well. If he got on the field, I can see a path to relevance, but even at this late ADP drafting him seems wasteful with such elite players blocking his path to playing time.
Favorite Deep Sleeper
Malik Washington, WR (ADP: 280, WR109): Washington, like Wright, is a rookie who seems well-suited for success in this offense, but is blocked by high-end veteran talent. His numbers as a senior at Virginia can’t be ignored; he reeled in 110 passes for 1,426 yards and nine touchdowns. That’s insane production for any school, let alone a Virginia squad that doesn’t necessarily have upper echelon talent all over the place to ease pressure. Washington is a complete receiver whom Reception Perception pegs as a slot receiver in the NFL, but someone who is unusually capable vs. man coverage as well. If Washington gets a shot, he’ll likely turn heads, which is why he may be worth a gamble in deep leagues or dynasty formats. But the Dolphins are so loaded with versatile, established players that can man the slot that it’s very difficult to envision any impact immediately.
Deep Cuts (150 & later)
Jonnu Smith, TE (ADP: 185, TE24): You know what this team, which is full to the brim with incredibly fast players at every position? A stupidly fast TE too. Jonnu Smith is someone I’ve had a lot of trouble quitting, and I can see him making big plays in South Beach with this many freaks around him demanding defensive attention. Smith is too far down the pecking order to contribute consistently, but we saw him make waves from time to time in Atlanta last year, outperforming Kyle Pitts. Could he be a spot start option here? I don’t see why not.
**Odell Beckham Jr., WR (ADP: 229, WR89): I wrote about Beckham’s case for fantasy relevance recently here, and the penchant he showed for massive chunk plays in Baltimore made him so intriguing in this offense. It’s probably not possible for Tua to support all these playmakers, which means the likely scenario is Beckham is waiver fodder because of a lack of consistency. We know that he probably is going to be very low volume. But boy did he hit sometimes even with as few as one or two targets. He’s pretty much free, and he’ll absolutely see the field ahead of Malik Washington to start the season, so as a final round flier he makes total sense.