On the Move: Breaking Down Diontae Johnson on the Panthers

Diontae Johnson being traded to the Panthers is a transaction that has been buried by bigger names moving to more newsworthy teams this busy offseason, but Johnson quietly represents one of the biggest potential values in our game.

Johnson hasn’t been able to live up to his Year 3 breakout in 2021. It remains the only season in which he has gone over 1,000 receiving yards, the only time he surpassed 100, or even 90 receptions, and represented a career-high for touchdowns (8). It’s fair to pigeonhole him as a WR2 and point to his career production as the basis, but if you’re willing to dig deeper there’s a potential diamond here that is talented enough to win leagues.

Johnson’s been very productive – although admittedly, not elite – in every season of his career, and he’s done so with weak quarterbacking almost the entire time. He’s plowed ahead with late-stage Ben Roethlisberger, Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and Mitch Trubisky and still been able to cobble together very valuable full and half-PPR seasons, with one legitimate star quality season in there. The move away from Pittsburgh, who will have Russell Wilson or Justin Fields under center this season, isn’t necessarily positive either based on Carolina’s 2023. Rookie Bryce Young was disastrous in one of the league’s worst offense, and Carolina spit out the worst Pass DVOA (-27.3%) in the NFL. Young himself was PFF’s No. 35 QB, which, yeah, that means there were backups who finished better than him. Zach Wilson was No. 34. It was a gross, gross season.

But in fairness to Young, he was saddled with arguably the worst set of skill players in the league, and the sixth-worst pass blocking offensive line per PFF. Carolina has brought in Dave Canales as head coach, who helped resurrect the career of Baker Mayfield , and that should boost the prospects of this offense. We’ve also seen time and time again of late how elite wide receivers can lift up a young quarterback and help them hit new levels. The question is whether or not Johnson is that type of receiver.

Well, despite the somewhat underwhelming numbers last year he graded out as a Top 25 receiver. He was elite in every facet of the position, shredding man coverage at a 75.2% clip (81st percentile) and zone coverage at an 82.3% rate (82nd percentile). He also was doubled nearly 20% of his routes according to Reception Perception and he won almost 80% of the time. He is an absolute master of the entire route tree and capable of hurting defenses at every level of the field, contrary to his reputation as a PPR beast who has to nickel and dime his way to fantasy points. He certainly can do that, and has in the past, because he’s been in offenses that limited him. The Steelers ditched Matt Canada last season, and Johnson responded with 14.1 yards per reception, the most of his career by nearly three full yards.

In joining Carolina, it’s very possible that Young is just a bust and he’s once again stuck with a terrible QB. But the book’s not written on Young by any means, and he was dealt a losing hand as a rookie. There’s a good offensive mind running the show now, and Johnson’s versatility unlocks a lot. Second-year receiver Jonathan Mingo may be able to move into the slot more, where he’s best suited to take advantage of his bulk, and veteran Adam Thielen can thrive without seeing opponents’ top DB regularly. And in turn, the success of those two can eventually lessen attention on Johnson.

Johnson’s trade to Carolina reminds me a lot of Stefon Diggs moving to Buffalo, and while Bryce Young isn’t Josh Allen – and I’m not insinuating that much of a leap is possible – I do believe Young is super talented and will be elevated by Johnson. His ADP is going to be lower than it should because the position is deep, the perception of Young is low, and this offense excites no one. Be the one to take advantage and draft a star at an amazing price.