On The Move: Breaking Down Gus Edwards on the Chargers
Gus Edwards is currently a very intriguing fantasy option, because he has spent his first five seasons in one of the most prolific rushing offenses in the NFL, but most of the time he’s been a bit part of it. Edwards has consistently stepped up when asked, but he’s now moving on from Baltimore and appears poised to take a starring role in the Chargers’ new offense. Is he up to the task?
We say volume is king in fantasy football, and Edwards sure seems like he’s about to be one of the most active RBs in fantasy. Jim Harbaugh is assuming control of the team in 2024, and he’s already begun remaking the team in his image. Superstar QB Justin Herbert is still here, but Harbaugh traded away his primary receiver, Keenan Allen, let his No. 2 receiver Mike Williams leave in free agency, and allowed star RB Austin Ekeler, a primary pass-catcher, to leave for Washington. Out with the flash, in with the muscle. Edwards is a big back, standing over six feet tall, and he’s coming off a career-high 13 touchdowns in 2024, with 12 of them coming from inside five yards, and all of them coming from inside eight yards. If you’re looking for a bruiser who can handle a massive workload and take a pounding, Edwards looks the part.
But, he’s never played the part. Edwards’ 198 rushing attempts were a career-high for him; the last time Harbaugh was an NFL coach, he spent four years in San Francisco where Frank Gore rushed more than 250 times in each season. Edwards has also been a pretty efficient back in his career, averaging 4.9 yards per rush, but he’s played behind stellar offensive lines and with the greatest rushing QB of all time sharing a backfield with him. He also lost efficiency with the increased volume in 2023, dropping to 4.1 yards per rush, and marking the first time he’d ever been below five for a season. Edwards has averaged under 50 yards per game in each of the last four seasons, and while he’s never had a bell cow workload, he’s also not snapping off big plays.
Having Harbaugh run the show is undoubtedly a positive, because his 49ers were in the Top 10 in the NFL in rushing attempts for each of those four campaigns, and in the Top 3 twice. But Edwards is joining a team that struggled mightily in 2023 to run the football. They were dead last in Rushing DVOA (-20.3%), had the worst-graded run blocking line per PFF, and ranked third-worst in adjusted line yards (3.58). It’s fair to expect the unit to improve, but Edwards hasn’t shown to be the type of ankle-breaking rusher to carry a poor offensive line.
The bottom line here is that Edwards should see a lot of work in 2024, but he’ll be running behind a questionable offensive line, and operating in an offense that will face stacked boxes because the Chargers have jettisoned their top receiving threats. Edwards also won’t be able to supplement his production in the receiving game, because he’s never even caught 15 passes in a season. Edwards averaged less than one reception per game last year, the best of his career. We’ve seen Justin Herbert pepper the RB position with targets in the pass, but Edwards is unlikely to be the recipient of many of them. Edwards can be an RB2 if he has another big season of scoring touchdowns, but despite the volume, this offense doesn’t seem like it’ll score enough to make Edwards really break out.