ADP Deep Cuts: D'Ernest Johnson Is a Star Buried On The Depth Chart

Some players jump off the page in certain areas in such a way that it seems impossible they weren’t elite producers during the season. For RB D’Ernest Johnson, his PFF grade (81.4) puts him in shocking company.

Johnson’s grade placed him inside the Top 10, and he was three-tenths of a point off of teammate Nick Chubb. Even more impressively, if you just go off PFF’s Rushing grade alone, Johnson’s 90.6 mark puts him…you may want to sit down…first in the NFL. Johnson’s total numbers aren’t going to impress anyone, because he was well behind Chubb in the pecking order, and barely saw the field at all when Kareem Hunt was also healthy. But he made the most of his time on the field in 2021, turning 100 carries into 534 yards and three touchdowns and racking up 671 scrimmage yards. In limited opportunity Johnson has never finished a season below five yards per carry, and his success in 2021 was proof of concept from an even more limited 2020.

In 2020, Johnson flashed for 166 yards on just 33 carries. Last season, when given volume, he dominated. He saw more than 15 carries just three times, and this is how those games went:

Week 7 vs. Denver: 22 carries, 146 yards, one touchdown

Week 10 at New England: 19 carries, 99 yards, seven receptions, 58 yards

Week 17 vs. Cincinnati: 25 carries, 123 yards, one touchdown

This comes after he had one real volume opportunity in 2020, and ripped off 95 yards on 13 carries vs. the Cowboys in Week 4. It is always difficult to say exactly what a RB will become until we truly see him with a real RB1 workload, but it’s not just PFF that’s in love with Johnson’s work. His RB DVOA on Football Outsiders was 27.7%, once again, the best in football, and he was inside the Top 10 in Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR). He’s been an absolute monster when he plays, and with this kind of statistical momentum behind him, it’s only a matter of time until he sees his role increase. The question looming is how much more time will he see?

Cleveland placed a “right of first refusal” tender on Johnson, meaning that they can match any free agent offer he receives, but will not receive any draft pick compensation if they choose to let him walk. Possibly because Johnson has never logged more than 100 carries, and doesn’t have long-term elite production to point to, didn’t get an offer from anyone, leaving him only able to negotiate with the Browns in 2022. That could be a gift and a curse. The Browns ran the ball 485 times last season, ninth-most in football. But that run-heavy approach is going to heavily favor Chubb, the clear-cut RB1 and deservedly so. As good as Johnson was in his limited bursts, Chubb is also that good across entire games and seasons. Should Johnson remain in Cleveland, the best we can hope for is Cleveland moves on from Kareem Hunt, and Johnson slides in as the change of pace/passing downs back. That role made Hunt a legitimate RB2, and Johnson’s clearly shown he can thrive in much the same way.

Ideally, a RB-needy team aware of what a diamond in the rough he is would’ve made an offer too rich for the Browns’ blood. The Atlanta Falcons or Miami Dolphins come to mind, but they have chosen other, likely less fruitful paths. Dynasty league managers should absolutely be trying to buy low on D’Ernest Johnson now, and reaping the benefits down the road. As for those in redraft or keeper leagues, just keep him in mind in those later rounds. Anyone who drafts Nick Chubb should also make it a priority to grab up D’Ernest if that’s where he winds up. While he’ll need two injuries to slide into the lead role, it only tales one injury to Chubb or Hunt for him to become a fairly high-volume receiving back, especially since Cleveland’s pass-catching corps is underwhelming.