Leap to Elite: AJ Dillon Is Ready To Smash Into The Elite Tier
Who doesn’t love snagging a breakout RB at a good value in the draft? If that’s your thing, considering reaching slightly for Packers RB AJ Dillon, whose ADP will not reflect his ceiling because of the stiff competition for work in Green Bay’s backfield.
Aaron Jones is an awesome RB, and absolutely could cap Dillon’s upside if he’s healthy for all or most of the season, but heed the wise words of Macho Man Randy Savage – cream rises to the top. Dillon might have only been given limited opportunity to show it, but he’s an elite RB. He earned an 86.2 grade from PFF, the third best mark in the NFL, the sixth-best RB DVOA mark in football (36.5%) per Football Outsiders, and ranked in the Top 10 in Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (110). At six feet, nearly 250 lbs. Dillon is also an effective hammer near the goal line, and being a reliable source of touchdowns is the holy grail of fantasy value. Dillon scored five rushing touchdowns in 2021, and four of them came from the five yard line or closer. That lone straggler? He punched it in from the seven-yard line.
Dillon’s not just a goal line banger though. While Jones outsnapped him on the season, Dillon was on the field for a healthy 43% of the Packers’ offensive plays and he led the team in carries with 187 totes to Jones’ 171. That’s likely to increase based on Dillon’s age (24), the draft capital spent on him (2nd round pick) and the departure of superstar WR Davante Adams without an obvious replacement. Losing him will result in greater rushing volume from Green Bay, and they already only threw the 15th-most passes in football last season.
The most exciting thing about Dillon’s game, however, is his receiving ability. Dillon’s built like a pure power back, but he was entrusted as a pass-catcher last season and rewarded the Packers with a 91.9% catch rate and 18.4 yards per game. He also saw a meager 0.4-yard Average Depth of Target (ADOT), which means he was putting in work once the ball was in his hands. Dillon’s no burner, but he’s more elusive than you’d think, and he’s a load to tackle. Dillon averaged 9.2 yards per reception, and 9.1 yards after the catch per reception. His receiving numbers are all him, so if he manages to wrest greater control of the snap share, he’s going to contribute across the board and not limit the Packers’ offense at all.
It's fair to wonder how often Dillon will get the chance to flash those receiving chops. Despite positive marks as a receiver and pass blocker from PFF, Jones graded out significantly better in both facets. Jones has caught 47 or more passes in three straight seasons, and in the playoffs vs. the 49ers was one of essentially two players Aaron Rodgers trusted to target. The other was Adams, who is gone now, so Jones could be one of the most heavily targeted RBs in football this year. And while Jones has a reputation as an injury risk, it’s no more than a narrative at this point because he has started 14+ games in each of the last three seasons. Jones is a playmaker but efficiency is his game, so there’s room for him to thrive and still allow Dillon to be a factor.
Dillon is currently going No. 61 overall, and 26th at the position per Fantasy Pros. That ADP captures the risk of inconsistent volume, but it doesn’t come close to accounting for his upside in the event of injury or simply stellar play. There’s tremendous value in Dillon, and at this ADP, muted risk.