The All Value Team: Creating A Roster Based On The Best ADP Values At Each Position

Today, I will construct a roster of players that solely consists of the best ADP values currently available at each position. All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

All Value Team:

QB: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (ADP: 124): Lawrence is currently not being drafted as a QB1, and based on the draft capital it cost to get him – the No. 1 overall pick!!! – and the talent he’s been surrounded by, it is hard to imagine him not putting up gangbusters production. Sure, he’s a rookie, and there are learning curves. The learning curves aren’t made equal though, and I’d expect the best prospect since Andrew Luck to pick things up pretty quick.

It’s all set up for him. The Jaguars have as talented a crew of WRs as anyone in football, with DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, and free agent acquisition Marvin Jones, a guy who has scored nine touchdowns in three of his last four seasons. The running game is sound with breakout RB James Robinson coming off a 1,070-yard rookie campaign, and a first-round pick in Travis Etienne, who was Lawrence’s teammate at Clemson. Etienne is a dominant two-way threat who has complete familiarity with Lawrence, and will be surrounded by enough talent that he can’t be keyed on. And we haven’t even talked about Lawrence’s virtues. He was prolific at Clemson, passing for more than 3,000 yards in all three of his seasons, tossing 90 total touchdown passes against only 17 picks, and scoring 17 rushing touchdowns in his sophomore and junior seasons. Lawrence is a real two-way threat himself,  logging more than 100 rushing attempts in 2019, and was on a similar pace last year. The offensive line leaves much to be desired, but overall this is a situation built for him to thrive, and Jacksonville’s porous defense will lend to very favorable game scripts. Volume, rushing volume, superior skill talent and positive game scripts are all colliding in Jacksonville, and for some reason we aren’t head over heels for the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. It’s weird, but I’ll just thank the fantasy gods.

RB: James Conner, Cardinals (ADP: 98): Conner is being drafted as a clear second banana to Chase Edmonds in the Cardinals’ backfield, and that’s created massive value for him. Conner has been underwhelming since breaking out in 2018, and he’s certainly dealt with injuries, but he is a similar player to Kenyan Drake, who just left via free agency, and it’s unclear why the Cardinals aren’t viewing him as a cheaper replacement for the same role. While Conner absolutely lacks Edmonds’ big play potential, and Edmonds will handle the vast majority of passing down work, Conner could finish as a strong RB2.

Last season Drake only caught 25 passes and averaged a flat four yards per carry, and still he finished with nearly 1,000 rushing years, and had scored 10 touchdowns. He finished as a fantasy RB2 despite ranking as PFF’s 60th-best RB in 2020. This was because Drake saw all the rushing volume, despite Edmonds averaging 4.6 yards per carry, because Edmonds’ skill set is clear. He is an elite pass-catcher out of the backfield who earned a meager 62.6 rushing grade from PFF, even lower than Drake’s underwhelming 65.3 mark. Edmonds has never rushed even 100 times in a season and is rarely trusted near the goal line. Meanwhile, ranked ahead of both Drake and Edmonds per PFF, averaged 4.3 yards per carry and scored six rushing touchdowns in 13 games behind the NFL’s worst run blocking line per Football Outsiders. Nothing has significantly changed about Arizona’s offense, nor Edmonds’ skill set. The absence of Drake would be more meaningful if they hadn’t replaced him with a proven veteran who possesses similar skills. Those drafting Edmonds 24 picks ahead of Conner may find themselves pretty disappointed this year because the chunk plays may not be accompanied by touchdowns, leaving him as a merely good RB when fantasy owners were hoping for great at a discount.  

RB: Gus Edwards, Ravens (ADP: 110): Edwards is in a similar boat to Conner in that fantasy owners are drafting his backfield mate J.K. Dobbins far, far ahead of him when the reality is their workloads might be similar. Baltimore will have one of the NFL’s most rushing-heavy offenses, and both Dobbins and Edwards will cede production on the ground to QB Lamar Jackson, just as Conner and Edmonds will lose production to Kyler Murray.

In Baltimore, however, Dobbins measures off the charts in a lot of metrics. Dobbins earned an 82 rushing grade from PFF, led all RBs in RB DVOA (26.1%), was sixth in Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR), and Top 20 in Effective Yards. As a rusher whom Baltimore spent an early round pick on, he’s a very exciting prospect entering his second season with veteran Mark Ingram having been cut loose this offseason. The thing is, Edwards was his equal, and sometimes superior, in many of these categories. Edwards was the No. 5 overall RB per PFF in 2020, earning a sparkling 86.1 rushing grade, finishing 7th in RB DVOA, 10th in DYAR, and 14th in Effective Yards, ahead of Dobbins. Edwards will not be a factor in the passing game, but it is possible Dobbins isn’t either. Edwards finished second on the team in rushing attempts last year (144), behind Lamar Jackson, and ahead of Dobbins (134). By no means am I pushing Edwards as the pick over Dobbins, but the 85-pick disparity seems ridiculous when considering how effective Edwards actually is.

WR: Curtis Samuel, Football Team (ADP: 115): Samuel has never caught 80 passes, reached 900 yards or eclipsed six touchdown receptions in his four NFL seasons, and yet I’m still excited about him in 2021. Last year was a breakout of sorts; he set career highs in receptions (77) and yards (851), while also growing into a much more dynamic overall weapon. Samuel rushed 41 times for 200 yards and two touchdowns, and in total was a very useful fantasy receiver despite being the WR3 on an offense with Teddy Bridgewater as the primary QB. Washington isn’t exactly WR nirvana, and Terry McLaurin is the unquestioned WR1 for the Football Team, but Samuel is now a clear-cut WR2 and he should see a sizable bump in targets.

Samuel was drafted in Carolina by Ron Rivera, who currently coaches the Football Team, so he knows what kind of explosive playmaking Samuel brings to the table. Samuel might also be fully unlocked with a QB like Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing the ball, because although Samuel has primarily been used for short targets in which he has to make defenders miss, he’s capable of doing damage down the field as well. Whereas Samuel has always had to rely on efficiency – and been moderately successful and fantasy relevant doing so – Washington should offer him greater volume, which could translate to major value should he remain efficient.

WR: Sterling Shepard, Giants (ADP: 202): Shepard is pretty far down the board, and his track record since a promising rookie season will leave anybody cold. But it’s been a while since Shepard has been both healthy for a full season  and benefitting from a genuine WR1 on his team. Shepard shined the most in 2016, with Odell Beckham drawing every defensive eyeball, and Victor Cruz also commanding attention. Since then, he’s either dealt with his own injuries, or injuries to Beckham forcing him into a leading role he’s poorly suited for. Now, with Kenny Golladay in tow, Shepard is back to being a No. 2, and he’ll also be mixing in with big play threats Darius Slayton and rookie Kadarius Toney, as well as TE Evan Engram. Shepard is not going to become a stalwart WR2 for you, but for players in deeper formats he could be a consistent WR3, or he can be a very serviceable FLEX at any point in this role. Without drawing opponents’ top DBs, Shepard proved difficult to keep out of the end zone as a rookie. In each of the last two seasons, he scored three receiving touchdowns, despite being limited to 10 and 12 games, respectively. Shepard is very likely to be second on the Giants in targets behind Golladay, and while they’re not exactly restaurant quality targets from Daniel Jones, he’s going to offer much more consistency than you will typically find after pick No. 200.

TE: Jonnu Smith, Patriots (ADP: 158) At TE, finding value is incredibly difficult. It is a position where you either invest in the elite guys – Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Darren Waller – or you take your chances with a TE who more than likely lives or dies by their unpredictable TD total. Jonnu Smith absolutely falls into the latter category, except his athletic profile makes him a strong bet to continue to score touchdowns in the right setting. Last season Smith scored nine total touchdowns despite seeing just 65 targets, and catching only 41 passes. He was hyper efficient, spreading out the nine touchdowns across seven games and even earning two rushing attempts, scoring on one from the one-yard line.

While Hunter Henry’s presence certainly could encroach on Smith’s target share, we have noted his efficiency, and his athleticism makes him a solid bet for the Pats’ offensive coaches to get creative. On top of that, while Henry is stiff competition among TEs, the Patriots’ WR corps is not very threatening. New presumed No. 1 Nelson Agholor is primarily a deep threat, and Smith is probably a superior option to the likes of Jakobi Meyers, N’Keal Harry, etc. So yes, while last season Smith had no competition at his position, he did deal with a bona fide WR1 in A.J. Brown. Ultimately, Smith could end up being a boom-or-bust, TD-dependent option with shaky target share. In that case, he’s not to different from Noah Fant, who is going 79 picks ahead of him.