Fantasy Football 2021 Team Previews: Green Bay Packers

Green Bay Packers Fantasy Preview 2021

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Aaron Jones, RB (ADP: 9): Jones’ ADP creeped up past Adams with the Aaron Rodgers rumors running rampant, but that should flip as draft day nears. Jones, to me, is not quite as sure a thing as Adams. He can be counted on to be a strong RB1, but his usage is going to change now that Jamaal Williams is out of the picture. This season, don’t be surprised if Jones dips below the 200-carry mark that he’s surpassed in back-to-back seasons, and cedes some of that work to second-year RB A.J. Dillon, while he assumes more receiving work. This may turn out to be an excellent development; receptions are worth more than carries, but we might see a dip in Jones’ TD output which has at times carried him in games where his usage was subpar. These are nitpicks; Jones has been near or above 1,500 yards from scrimmage in back-to-back seasons, but if his touchdowns fall he may be more like a strong second round pick than a first.

**Davante Adams, WR (ADP: 10): Adams’ ADP is likely to rise now that Rodgers has confirmed he’s back with the Packers, and this ADP is obviously fine/great. Adams is a superstar in the NFL, with proven chemistry with arguably the best QB in the NFL. Adams is an elite source of receptions and touchdowns and will be among the league leaders in targets. Just a complete beast.

Aaron Rodgers, QB (ADP: 62): Rodgers is back, so this ADP might rise as you get closer to draft day. Obviously, he’s an elite QB and one who will be as efficient as any option at the position. With that said, he shouldn’t be drafted expecting a repeat of last season, because he posted a 9.1% TD rate, a career-high. He has only been near that mark once, in 2011, and for his career he’s posted a 6.3% TD rate. If he drops down to his career average, he will still be a great, consistent fantasy option, but he will not provide as much of a clear weekly advantage as he did in 2020. Because of that, I’m more inclined to keep firing on RBs or WRs at this point of the draft and find my QB later. Preferably one who runs more.

AJ Dillon, RB (ADP: 95): There’s excitement for Dillon, and that’s understandable, but this ADP is a bit much. There’s a universe where Dillon becomes a primary goal line back, but I don’t expect it to be this one without an injury. While Dillon will infringe upon Jones’ workload to a degree, Jones is still the overwhelming favorite to lead this team in carries, and his ability in the receiving game (and high-level pass blocking) means Dillon isn’t sniffing the field in those situations. There are quality receivers (Jerry Jeudy, Will Fuller) and other committee RBs (Zack Moss) going in this range that I just expect to be used more in their offenses.

Robert Tonyan, TE (ADP: 107): Tonyan was a breakout nobody saw coming, scoring 11 touchdowns on 52 receptions. He’s a living, breathing embodiment of what’s possible when a QB posts a 9.1% TD rate. Tonyan actually graded as PFF’s No. 27 TE, which was much lower than I’d expected, but it had more to do with the aspects of his game that weren’t receiving. I do believe Tonyan is a quality receiving TE, but Jones and Adams are going to absolutely dominate target share, leaving Tonyan owners to pray he can repeat that TD output. The odds are against it, and Tonyan’s non-TD games are pretty frightening. At this ADP you can take a shot, but I’d be wary of relying on him as an every-week option, and I’d rather a TE who figures to be more integral to his team’s attack.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Randall Cobb, WR (ADP: 190): We have been searching for a fantasy-relevant WR2 on Green Bay since Cobb left, and the Packers have traded for him specifically to please Rodgers. He’s well past his prime – and honestly, his prime is slightly overrated – but he has a chance to be relevant again in this offense. Cobb won’t be dominant by any means, but as recently as 2019 he averaged 15.1 yards per reception in Dallas. His chemistry with Rodgers was undeniable, and he was a healthy source of touchdowns during his time at Lambeau. If Tonyan’s TD numbers drop, Cobb will be a likely reason why. Where Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and others have failed in recent years, Cobb should succeed, because he has Rodgers’ trust.

Sleeper Class (200 & later)

Allen Lazard, WR (ADP: 231): Lazard has failed to top 35 receptions in back-to-back seasons despite being a de facto No. 2 for Rodgers. With Cobb back, and a promising rookie WR in the mix, I can’t say I am very interested in drafting Lazard. The ship’s sailed on his relevance.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR (ADP: 304): Valdes-Scantling is a big play guy we hoped might become more consistent with a clear path to a No. 2 role, but it never happened. He was playable as an emergency pickup at times, but this receiving corps is suddenly crowded. Like Lazard, he’s had his opportunities and failed to capitalize. Now I’m not interested.

Devin Funchess, WR (ADP: 320): Funchess was signed because the Packers didn’t have faith in Lazard or Valdes-Scantling, then he opted out due to COVID. Now he’s back, but who is interested? Funchess, at his best, was fairly touchdown dependent, and his best season came back in 2017. It’s been a long time since he mattered, and in this very defined offense he’s unlikely to be useful.

Amari Rodgers, WR (ADP: 323): Rodgers has some buzz this summer, especially with Aaron Rodgers back. He had his best season as a senior in 2020 at Clemson, topping 1,000 yards and finishing with seven touchdowns. He has a chance to earn playing time with the crew of subpar options in front of him, but at the same time he may not be able to distinguish himself immediately with so many veterans in front of him. I see why he is generating interest, but I’m not going to draft him. Wait and see.

Jordan Love, QB (ADP: 358): Rodgers is back, so no reason to even think about Love.

Defense/Special Teams (ADP: 283)

The Packers D/ST is fine, but it’s only fine. Use them as a streaming option.