Fantasy Football 2021 Team Previews: New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Saints Fantasy Preview 2021

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Alvin Kamara, RB (ADP: 4): Kamara was dominant last season, finishing 2020 with more than 1,600 yards from scrimmage and 21 total touchdowns. Those are video game numbers, but they’re mildly deceptive in that his production dipped for a spell with Taysom Hill at QB. The dip had little to do with Kamara; it’s simply that Hill is a vastly different QB than Drew Brees was, and it took some time for the pair to gel. Well, Brees is gone for good now, and we likely won’t know whether Hill or Jameis Winston will get the nod for the Saints moving forward. Either way, I wouldn’t be concerned about this ADP for Kamara. He graded as PFF’s No. 7 RB last season, and was the No. 2 RB in terms of receiving behind only Nyheim Hines. Either QB has the potential to help Kamara produce. Hill’s capability on the ground can open up running lanes, while Winston should make the overall offense more prolific, and lead to increased receiving numbers. Overall, picking Kamara at any spot makes sense, even No. 1 overall (although I wouldn’t have him quite up there). And no matter what, with New Orleans’ receiving options scraping the bottom of the barrel, Kamara is going to have all the touches his body can handle.

Michael Thomas, WR (ADP: 31): Thomas had a brutal season last year for fantasy owners who burned a first round pick on him, he’s lost a Hall of Fame QB and now he’s going to miss significant time at the start of the season due to ankle surgery. Thomas was hurt all year long, and despite that, he still graded out as PFF’s No. 22 receiver and caught almost six passes per game. The biggest reason for Thomas being a complete bust was him scoring zero touchdowns; touchdowns are a very fickle stat, and him scoring zero means there should massive positive regression coming in 2021 when he returns, even without Brees putting slant passes on the money.

Brees missed Weeks 10-14, and in that span Thomas went over 100 yards twice, caught eight or more passes three times, and saw at least six targets in every game. Taysom Hill isn’t even close to Brees as a passer, but that’s made up for by the pure volume Thomas will see. There aren’t any other reliable pass-catchers here besides Kamara out of the backfield. This ADP is going to plummet due to his injury news, so it’s TBD whether or not he’s worth a draft and stash. Based on his issues last year though, I’m not eager to re-live the experience. Healthy Thomas would be a massive value here, but I’m viewing him now as a total stay away.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Latavius Murray, RB (ADP: 130): Murray is being drafted like he’s more than a handcuff, and I really wouldn’t view him that way. Murray has morphed into a strong RB2 whenever Kamara’s missed time, but without Brees running the show things are bound to change for the Saints. At age 31, Murray is no spring chicken, and volume alone might not be enough to be a game-changer for fantasy owners anymore. Without that upside if he does get playing time, this ADP is too high for him considering he needs an injury to even have meaningful playing time in the first place. I don’t get this ADP, and while I’d want him if I drafted Kamara in Round 1, I don’t want to pay this price.

Taysom Hill, QB (ADP: 175): Hill vs. Jameis is the camp battle of the year. Hill has to have the early nod since, well, he played over Winston last year when Brees was hurt. While Hill’s passing left a lot to be desired – he graded 27th in the NFL per PFF – he was an asset for fantasy owners.  Hill rushed 87 times for 457 yards and eight touchdowns last season, and, like Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia, had some games where he popped on the passing front. He threw for 232 yards and two scores in Week 13 vs. Atlanta, and 292 yards and two touchdowns the following week vs. the Eagles. Those passing numbers are more than adequate if he is going to average 5.4 rushing attempts per game at 5.3 yard a clip. His passing limitations are enough for me to rule out a Josh Allen-esque leap, but as a full-time starter Hill absolutely can mimic Allen’s gaudy rushing production, and that would safely entrench him as a year-long QB1. But that’s assuming he is named the starter.

Jameis Winston, QB (ADP: 200): We haven’t seen Winston since 2019 in any significant way, so I’ll remind you what he did. Jameis threw for more than 5,100 yards and racked up 33 touchdowns…along with 30 interceptions. Yes, it was definitely ugly at times, and even though he finished easily as a QB1, he could’ve been better. Winston has always been careless with the ball, and despite his big talk this offseason you’d be foolish to think that’s changed. He’s also capable of ungodly positive contributions when he’s playing well, and the Saints may find they need that upside with a limited skill group (excluding Thomas and Kamara). Winston allows the Saints to run a more traditional offense than Hill does, and having Hill as a gadget player increases his real-life effectiveness. Should Winston get the gig, I’d rank him lower than Hill because he doesn’t possess Hill’s rushing upside. I also would view Winston as a worse option than his 2019 version, because he’s surrounded with fewer weapons, and Payton likely has a lower tolerance for his mistakes. I’d treat him like a streamer, whereas I’d treat Hill as a weekly starter.

Sleeper Class (200 & later)

Adam Trautman, TE (ADP: 226): Trautman has some light buzz this offseason because the Saints decided to clear out their whole TE room, but I’m hesitant to buy in with no track record, and no Brees. Last season he caught 15 passes for 171 yards and a touchdown. That’s fine I guess. There are a lot of TEs this season who could pop that have done a lot more on the field than Trautman has, so I’m willing to monitor him in the early going and pounce on waivers if he pops. His target share should rise with Thomas out, and no obvious WR1 to speak of on the roster. But no way am I drafting him and rolling him out there in my lineup in Week 1.

Tre’Quan Smith, WR (ADP: 223): Smith has burned us all too many times, and without Brees, the passing volume in this offense is bound to become less efficient. As a big play guy, you could maybe see Smith gaining value with Winston as QB, but that’s purely theoretical. And I’m not buying it. Emmanuel Sanders’ departure should also help Smith’s value, in theory, but I am fully and completely out.

Deonte Harris, WR (ADP: 340): Someone besides Kamara has to catch passes right? I mean, maybe not if Hill is the QB, but I digress. Smith has had so many chances to become a real WR2 in this offense, and if he couldn’t do it with Brees, it’s probably not happening. Harris isn’t proven at all, but he’s shown his dynamite playmaking as a return man, and he caught 20 passes last season for 186 yards and a touchdown. Harris is someone the Saints can target on short passes and let him do the rest, or he can burn DBs down the field while safeties are occupied with Thomas. With Thomas out for the beginning of the season someone will emerge as a primary target. I don’t think Harris will be that guy, but he may be New Orleans’ most explosive option.

Defense/Special Teams (ADP: 199)

This D/ST is going 11th, and that’s fine. They will not be exceptional, and they have to deal with some gnarly offenses within their own division. They are streamers, or if you really believe in them, save ‘em for your final pick or last $1 bid.