Fantasy Football 2021 Team Previews: New England Patriots

New England Patriots Fantasy Preview 2021

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

**Damien Harris, RB (ADP 77): Harris is an excellent breakout candidate, as I covered here, and but he’s certainly not without risk. As far as ability goes, few in the NFL are better pure rushers. In fact, per PFF only one RB was better overall and it was Derrick Henry. Despite his fantastic grades and metric goodness, Harris finished 2020 with 691 yards and two touchdowns, hardly fantasy dominance. Unfortunately, we don’t get points for being better than everyone else unless that excellence is borne out via yards, touchdowns and receptions. There’s reason for optimism. New England is constantly forcing its RBs to share, but Rex Burkhead is gone, and Sony Michel really took a backseat to Harris as 2020 pressed on. Bill Belichick may want to keep his guys fresh by using a rotation, but even he has to adjust when one guy, in this case Harris, is blowing away the rest of the options.

 QB Cam Newton is a bigger hurdle than anything else. Typically, gifted rushers at the QB position are a positive for the RBs, and between the 10s that will be the case if Newton is New England’s starter. The problem is that Newton served as the Patriots’ primary rusher near the goal line, scoring 12 touchdowns to Harris’ two. If Newton keeps his hold on the job, that usage is probably going to continue, lowering Harris’ ceiling significantly. Harris was also used sparsely as a receiver out of the backfield, even though he earned a 67.6 grade as a pass-catcher. For most, this will look like a fine ADP for Harris, who has plenty of upside, but could be capped by his QB. For some, like me, there’s a Nick Chubb-esque talent here waiting to erupt, and it could be unleashed by simply the Patriots’ 2021 first round pick, Mac Jones, supplanting one of the NFL’s worst passers in 2020.

Hunter Henry, TE (ADP: 111): Henry is the highest-drafted pass-catcher on the team right now, an indictment of a receiving group that is shockingly much improved from a year ago. Henry has struggled with injuries, and he’s got major competition at his own position for target share. Also, while he looks the part of a classic red zone weapon, he hasn’t scored more than five touchdowns in any season since his rookie year, way back in 2016. I’m expecting Henry to be a fantasy-relevant TE, but in this offense, and with an unclear picture at QB, I don’t think I could pull the trigger on him as a TE1 in a 12-team league, which his current ADP suggests he’s valued as. This is a stay away.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Jonnu Smith, TE (ADP: 134): Smith was New England’s other big-ticket purchase at TE this offseason, giving Belichick his best TE tandem since Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez (granted, these two are far beyond Henry and Smith). Of the two new Pats TEs, I’d much rather have Smith. He is a better athlete with superior big play potential, and he proved in Tennessee he can be used in a wider variety of ways. Smith was a key component of Tennessee’s hyper efficient passing game, and he scored nine total touchdowns on just 65 targets. He averaged just 6.9 yards per target in 2020, so his elite athleticism was counted on to make defenders miss. If Newton was a better QB, I’d be all over Smith to break out even further as part of the Patriots’ offense, but as is I think he will be more of a TD-or-bust type because of the low passing volume I expect. I wouldn’t draft him expecting an every-week TE, but I would pass on Henry at No. 111 if I wanted a Pats’ TE, which isn’t a terrible idea considering their still-weak WR corps.

James White, RB (ADP: 169): White is among the most boring picks possible this year. He’s a receiving back only, so his relevance is limited to half-PPR and full-PPR leagues, and even there his impact waned significantly last year. Maybe it was because of Newton, but White saw his targets drop to 62 last year from 95 the prior season, and he caught 49 of them for 375 yards and one touchdown. Simply, he was not useful, and he likely will be similarly used since Newton projects as the starter once again. Given Harris’ ability to catch the ball, I’d expect White’s presence to be scaled back some, eliminating him from consideration for me without a Harris injury. This ADP isn’t high at all, but it’s still being driven by his name value. This isn’t the Brady heyday, and you should leave White for waivers.

Nelson Agholor, WR (ADP: 182): Agholor had his breakout last season, emerging as the top target (among receivers) for the Raiders and finishing with 896 yards and eight touchdowns, impressively averaging 18.9 yards per reception. It was by far the most productive Agholor, a former first rounder, has ever been. And while I expect him to be featured since the Pats made a beeline for him in free agency, I don’t think he will reach the same highs as long as Newton is his QB. Newton last season really tested the cliché of “somebody’s gotta catch the ball” last year, because there really weren’t any relevant Patriots receivers or tight ends. It was a horrendous offense, and Agholor’s deep ball ability requires a QB who can drive the ball downfield. Derek Carr absolutely can do that, and Newton proved last year he can’t. One would think that Agholor should produce based on how many targets he’ll see as the best receiver, but Henry and Smith are the primary pass-catchers to me. There’s no downside to him at this ADP, but I don’t think he has much chance of turning out WR2 or even every-week FLEX value.

Sleeper Class (200 & later)

**Cam Newton, QB (ADP: 204): I’ve been crapping on Cam this whole preview, but that’s in regard to his ability to support fantasy-relevant skill players. As I wrote here, I do think there’s a path for Cam to be a low-end QB1. I’ve referenced how bad he was as a passer last year, but to be specific, he threw eight touchdowns in 15 games against 10 interceptions. He averaged 177.1 yards per game, so when I say there may be no relevant receiving options here, I mean it. But, Newton was second in the NFL at the position in rushing volume (9.1 attempts per game), third in rushing yards (592) and tops in rushing TDs (12). And while the passing output was putrid, some of the blame has to go toward an utter lack of any talent surrounding him. Henry, Smith and Agholor are all upgrades, and while they’re still near the bottom of the league, they will boost Newton a bit. If he can start all season, that rushing baseline makes him a startable player, but Mac Jones’ presence should keep his ADP super low all summer.

Sony Michel, RB (ADP: 236): Michel lowkey rushed for 5.7 yards per carry last season, but he only saw 79 attempts. He flashed a bit, but it’s too little too late. Harris outshone him, and Harris is the man. I wouldn’t be surprised if Michel was latching on with another team by the time Week 1 rolls around.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB (ADP: 319): Stevenson, a fourth rounder, has some buzz as a possible threat to Harris. I don’t see it. He was impressive at Oklahoma, averaging 7.2 yards per carry in two seasons, but he’s not going to see significant snaps as long as Harris is healthy. I’d be interested in the event of a Harris injury, but even then Michel is in his way (for now), and they could just use White more and deploy short passes to White as a de facto running game.

Mac Jones, QB (ADP: 323): Jones, a first round pick, could absolutely dethrone Newton ahead of the season opener. His final season at Alabama was jaw dropping, as he threw for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns against just four picks in the SEC. Really great stuff. I’m not very interested fantasy wise, however, even if he is the starter right away because I am not in love with his receivers, and he offers zero as a rusher. Jones’ relevance in 2021 is that he’d elevate the ceilings of all the Pats’ skill players.

Jakobi Myers, WR (ADP: 337): Myers had some flash games last season, and he could potentially lead the team in receptions, as he’s much more of a possession receiver than Agholor. That role doesn’t have much value with Newton though, and it’s unlikely Jones would be a prolific passer out of the gate. He’s not a terrible flier in full-PPR leagues, but his ceiling is low even there.

Kendrick Bourne, WR (ADP: 362): Bourne wasn’t able to break out in four years in San Francisco, and this isn’t exactly an environment for non-superstars to thrive. He has the look of roster depth, and with these QBs that’s just not going to cut it for fantasy. Safe to ignore.

N’Keal Harry, WR (ADP: 381): Harry looks the part, but he’s been a big ol’ bust since going in Round 1 in 2019, and he’s requested a trade. It’s doubtful he’ll even be on the team by Week 1, but if he is, you can confidently assume he won’t be relevant.

Defense/Special Teams (ADP: 168)

The Pats D/ST is going 10th, and that’s a value. They dropped off big time from 2019, but they had a slew of players missing thanks to COVID-19 or injury. Star LB Don’t’a Hightower is back, Matt Judon is in the house, and they still have CB Stephon Gilmore. I’d spend $2.