NFL 2017 NFC Preview: Over/Under Totals and Predictions
I’m a man who likes to kill two birds with one stone when possible. Everyone loves season previews, and a lot of people like betting over/unders. I’m going to mash them together, giving you the short and sweet breakdowns of each team, making accurate predictions of the standings, and letting you know whether to bet each team’s over or under.
And yes, I’ll let you know when I feel real strong about a team. Without further ado, I present you the NFC Preview. All over/unders are courtesy of Sportsbook.
NFC East
New York Giants (O/U: 8.5)
Last season: 11-5
It’s hard to figure why the Giants’ number is this low following an 11-win season. The offensive line is a weak point, and that can often wreck a team, but Big Blue has a lot going for it otherwise. This team has arguably the best trio of receivers, collectively, in the NFL and a QB in Eli Manning who probably has a year or two of high level play left in him. Running the ball will be a chore, but with Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall and Sterling Shepard running routes who needs to run?
Defensively, this team could be the best in football. The pass rush is handled by Jason Pierre-Paul. The run stuffing is handled by Damon “Snacks” Harrison. There are three top-flight cornerbacks in this secondary, and S Landon Collins is becoming one of the more impactful players in all of football. This number seems far too low; the Giants should win a minimum of 10 games. OVER.
Dallas Cowboys (O/U: 9.5)
Last season: 13-3
Obviously, the Cowboys are due for some regression. Dak Prescott is going to throw more than four interceptions, and RB Ezekiel Elliott is likely to miss several games even if he gets his six-game ban reduced somehow. The weapons in the passing game beyond WR Dez Bryant are low-powered. The entire team is based off its phenomenal offensive line, which did experience some departures even though its still a great unit.
Defensively, the ‘Boys are a mixed bag. LB Sean Lee is the key to the unit, but he’s never healthy. LB Jaylon Smith may be an impact player, but we haven’t seen him on an NFL field yet. There are too many question marks to expect a 13-win season, but a three-game drop also feels big. That said, I peg America’s Team as a nine-win group, so UNDER.
Philadelphia Eagles (O/U: 8.5)
Last season: 7-9
I want to like the Eagles, but offensively they’re just lacking. Beyond WR Alshon Jeffery, I’m not sure how they expect QB Carson Wentz to make the leap. Nelson Agholor has been a huge bust as a first round pick, and Torrey Smith is a provlity en one-trick pony. On the ground, they’ll have to rely on either Wendell Smallwood, who is as nondescript as it gets, or LeGarrette Blount, who has never been good for any team but the Patriots. I just flat out do not like this offense.
The defense is interesting. The defensive line can be ferocious, especially if Fletcher Cox lives up to his contract. The linebacker corps is very solid as well, and the addition of CB Ronald Darby from the Bills this offseason gives them a chance of containing top flight receivers like Beckham and Dez Bryant. This defense is what makes them hard to peg, and really could be good enough to carry them to an NFC East crown. I just have big doubts about their ability to score, so I have to go UNDER.
Washington Redskins (O/U: 7.5)
Last season: 8-7
The Redskins are a team I do not like this year. If you’ve read my fantasy football content, you know I’m down on their offense, which is supposed to be the team’s strength. I don’t like them losing QB Kirk Cousins’ top two most-targeted receivers; when that happened to Andy Dalton, a similarly talented passer, the offense cratered. Yes, that was also because A.J. Green and oft-injured TE Tyler Eifert got hurt, but in D.C. Terrelle Pryor ain’t no A.J. Green, and Jordan Reed is equally as injury prone! I haven’t even mentioned yet how the team refuses to sign Cousins long-term, which at best creates a distraction, and at worst means they don’t trust him.
The defense is ragged. CB Josh Norman is obviously a stud, but it’s unclear if he has a net negative effect on the entire team. Also, he can’t cover Beckham. The strength of the D is the LB corps, but it’s not good enough to keep them from hemorrhaging yards and points. UNDER.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers (O/U: 10.5)
Last season: 10-6
The Packers are clearly the best team in this division and it’s not that close. Aaron Rodgers is the top QB in football, the receivers are loaded, and they added TE Martellus Bennett as if Rodgers needed more weaponry. Ty Montgomery has tremendous upside now that he’s a full-time RB, and overall the passing options available to Rodgers are insane.
The defense doesn’t look so hot, which will be a problem against elite opponents and during the playoffs, but until then Green Bay is a safe bet for 10 wins. I am a little queasy on putting hard-earned dollars on them to win 11 games, however, so I’ll say UNDER.
Detroit Lions (O/U: 7.5)
Last season: 9-7
It’s hard to put your faith in the Lions, but they’re being disrespected. Sure the defense will probably be awful, but the offense is going to score! Matthew Stafford just puts up points, it’s that simple. Once again he has a loaded receiving corps led by Golden Tate, which boasts three deep threats. RBs Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick both offer big play potential out of the backfield. I think the Lions’ offense is going to be very difficult to contain, negating the weakness of their defense.
This doesn’t necessarily make them a playoff team, but this division is weaker than most realize. Detroit is sneaky. OVER.
Minnesota Vikings (O/U: 8.5)
Last season: 8-8
The Vikings are the anti-Lions. They have a very good defense, and they even have talented skill players – WR Stefon Diggs, RB Dalvin Cook, TE Kyle Rudolph – but QB Sam Bradford is possibly allergic to big numbers. His highly touted completion percentage record is B.S.; he never throws the ball deep, wasting a player like Diggs, and blunting the upside of WR Laquon Treadwell.
Minnesota’s strong defense will need to carry the day for the Purple People Eaters, and on some days they will. The D can’t do it enough to drag them to nine wins, however. Here’s to praying Teddy Bridgewater can eventually work his way back and give Minnesota a chance at being entertaining.
Chicago Bears (O/U: 5.5)
Last season: 3-13
RB Jordan Howard is freaking awesome. He runs like a Mack truck and should be able to chew up yardage and score touchdowns no matter how many defenders stack the box against him. The receiving corps is barren without Cam Meredith, with Kevin White being the lone ray of potential stardom. Maybe rookie Mitch Trubisky is actually good and can save NFL fans from Mike Glennon, but for now its going to be Howard running into a brick wall 25 times a game and doing better than you thought he would.
Defensively, they’re not good. The big addition this offseason was CB Prince Amukamara, who is most famous for being bullied and thrown in an ice bath. UNDER.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons (O/U: 9.5)
Last season: 11-5
Can the Falcons have another magical offensive season like they did in 2016? Why not? They’re bringing back basically the same team that went to the Super Bowl, and even though Kyle Shanahan won’t be around to guide them anymore, this is a unit chock full of veteran players. As long as they have Matt Ryan throwing to Julio Jones, and Devonta Freeman toting the rock behind a great offensive line, the points will pour in. They are hoping that adding DT Dontari Poe will aid them in doing a better job against the run, and it should. This team is bound to compete for the division title once again, and they should win 10+ games. OVER.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U: 8.5)
Last season: 9-7
There are definitely questions about QB Jameis Winston as the future of the franchise, but to the organization’s credit they are certainly putting enough talent around him that they’ll know for sure if he’s the answer. In addition to WR Mike Evans, one of the best receivers on the planet, the Bucs added DeSean Jackson in free agency, and drafted TE O.J. Howard in the first round. If Winston fails to dominate with those kinds of players available to him, then he just stinks. Turnovers are Winston’s bug-a-boo, and that’s why getting RB Doug Martin back after three games is vital. If they can lean on Martin more, it may take the volume away from Winston and help him be more efficient.
On defense the Bucs might continue to struggle. They have very strong linebackers, and Gerald McCoy is, of course, a beast; the rest of these guys sans young CB Vernon Hargreaves all have question marks. The defense could be the Bucs’ undoing, because the NFC South will be competitive, and it features some badass offenses. OVER.
Carolina Panthers (O/U: 9)
Last season: 6-10
Cam Newton is a stud, and the addition of RB Christian McCaffery was a creative way to address a lack of playmakers on offense, as was the sneaky addition of fourth-round receiver/running back hybrid Curtis Samuel. It’s not enough though, in a tough division. WR Kelvin Benjamin is the only reliable receiver on the team, and TE Greg Olsen is what he is at this point in his career; he’s certainly a quality TE, but he ain’t bringing you to the promised land.
Defensively, the LB looks stacked until you recall that Luke Kuechly’s repeated concussions left him literally crying on the field last year and Thomas Davis has had eleventy-billion knee surgeries. They still don’t have much of a secondary. Carolina is solid, but that won’t cut it this year. UNDER.
New Orleans Saints (O/U: 8.5)
Last season: 7-9
I love the offense yet again, even with WR Willie Snead missing three games. Drew Brees is ageless and will flirt with 5,000 yards until he retires. WR Brandon Coleman has sick upside and might break out with the opportunity Snead’s suspension affords him. New Orleans will have zero problems scoring, and I even think Adrian Peterson could score double-digit TDs.
Once again, however, the defense will likely do them in. The secondary is still porous, and reliant on a rookie CB (Marshon Lattimore) to drag it to competence. That’s never good. The big addition to the front seven is LB Manti Te’o, who isn’t very good. They’re going to be in shootouts yet again, and that formula hasn’t worked for them in some time. It’s a bad idea to have a weak defense when the division includes two former MVP QBs, and three No. 1 overall picks. UNDER.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks (O/U: 10.5)
Last season: 10-5-1
The Seahawks are almost as much of a lock to win the NFC West as the Patriots are in the AFC East. Not only is the division rotten at the bottom, the Seahawks are going to have the best defense in the NFL. Adding Sheldon Richardson to their D-line is no small deal; he is an elite pass rusher, and when surrounded by other top pass rushers, in a culture that is more equipped to handle his B.S. he’s going to thrive. It’s going to be extremely difficult to score on this team.
I have some questions about the offense. QB Russell Wilson is very good, but the running game is full of question marks, and the offensive line hasn’t been upgraded much, leading me to fear that Wilson will be running for his life again. That’s a problem to worry about in the postseason though. OVER.
Arizona Cardinals (O/U: 8.5)
Last season: 7-8-1
Arizona is the only team with a prayer of challenging Seattle, but it doesn’t look good. RB David Johnson is unbelievable, and WR Larry Fitzgerald is a marvel, but the offensive line is shaky, and Carson Palmer ain’t getting younger. If Johnson were to go down, I wonder if the Cardinals’ offense would simply go right in the gutter.
The defense could be spectacular, but I don’t love Deonne Bucannon being hurt already, and DB Tyrann Mathieu making you hold your breath every time he hits someone that he won’t be carted off the field. They can be good, but there’s a whole lot that can go wrong as well. UNDER.
Los Angeles Rams (O/U: 5.5)
Last season: 4-12
The Rams have improved their talent significantly around QB Jared Goff, adding WRs Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp. They did some work on the offensive line as well, adding C John Sullivan and LT Andrew Whitworth. They’re trying to help Goff along, and ridding the offense of head coach Jeff Fisher can also only help.
The defense has impact pass rushers all over the place, but they NEED to sort out their contract issues with DL Aaron Donald, or the defense will be irreparably harmed. They’re getting better, but still UNDER.
San Francisco 49ers (O/U: 4.5)
Last season: 2-14
The Niners have some buzz about being an improving squad, but I don’t see it. QB Brian Hoyer is fine for managing a talented team, but do you see talent here? RB Carlos Hyde is good but can never stay healthy. WR Pierre Garcon is cool, but do you want him heading up a receiving corps without an elite QB throwing it? Ehh. They traded TE Vance McDonald, who was at least interesting. Having Kyle Shanahan engineering the offense will help, but he is not a magician.
The defense has some upside, but the offense is going to be so mediocre I think they’ll wind up on the field too much, and gassing out as games wear on. UNDER.
PREDICTIONS
1. Seahawks
2. Packers
3. Falcons
4. Giants
5. Cowboys
6. Buccaneers
SUPER BOWL REPRESENTATIVE
Seahawks.
MY FAVORITE OVERS
1. Seahawks over 10.5
2. Giants over 8.5
3. Lions over 7.5
MY FAVORITE UNDERS
1. Redskins under 7.5
2. 49ers under 4.5
3. Eagles under 8.5