NFL 2017 AFC Preview: Over/Under Totals and Predictions
I’m a man who likes to kill two birds with one stone when possible. Everyone loves season previews, and a lot of people like betting over/unders. I’m going to mash them together, giving you the short and sweet breakdowns of each team, making accurate predictions of the standings, and letting you know whether to bet each team’s over or under.
And yes, I’ll let you know when I feel real strong about a team. Without further ado, I present you the AFC Preview. All over/unders are courtesy of Sportsbook.
AFC East
New England Patriots: (O/U: 12.5)
Last season: 14-2
As bad as this division is, it’s hard to imagine the Patriots failing to hit any number. Two teams are tanking, and the Dolphins tend to roll over for Bill Belichick. That said, the number is awfully high. Here are some things to consider: Tom Brady is 40 years old this season, and he lost his most targeted receiver, Julian Edelman, for all of 2017 in the preseason.
With that said, he mostly did without TE Rob Gronkowski last season, and this team went the first four games without Brady himself and they still totaled 14 wins. I don’t love betting totals this high, but they still seem pretty safe as long as Brady doesn’t get hurt. OVER.
Miami Dolphins (O/U:7.5)
Last season: 10-6
The oddsmakers are showing no love for Miami, and I think it’s a mistake. For starters, they get to play the Bills and Jets twice each just like New England does.
Yes, they lost Ryan Tannehill for the year to a torn ACL, but he wasn’t very good anyway. They will not lose much by rolling with Jay Cutler instead, and he will be helming an offense with a lot of talent! RB Jay Ajayi is a beast, and WRs DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills are excellent deep threats to complement Cutler’s legendary arm. And don’t forget, Jarvis Landry is still around as a reliable safety net with the quicks to turn short catches into long touchdowns. The defense is an issue, as Ndamukong Suh seems like one of the biggest wastes of money in recent memory, but it’s easy to imagine the ‘Fins getting to eight victories. OVER.
Buffalo Bills (O/U: 6.5)
Last season: 7-9
Yuuuckk! This roster is 100 percent butthole after the front office decided to pack it in and plan for a post-Brady world. They unloaded Sammy Watkins and replaced him with Jordan Matthews, who has barely even practiced with QB Tyrod Taylor. Speaking of Taylor, he is not exactly Tom Brady; Taylor is a running-dependent QB who has the ability to make big plays down the field, but now actually has no one capable of helping him make those plays. RB LeSean McCoy will be the entire offense, and his legs may fall off by Week 8. This team is so committed to sucking that they released a completely competent backup RB, Jonathan Williams, in order to ensure that McCoy is on IR down the stretch. This is an easy one…UNDER.
New York Jets (O/U: 3.5)
Last season: 5-11
Jesus Christ. Their over/under is 3.5 games. That’s about as bad a number as you’ll see a professional team saddled with, but I’ll be damned if they didn’t earn it. They stripped themselves of almost all semblance of talent, shedding WRs Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, LB David Harris, C Nick Mangold, and even trading DL Sheldon Richardson. This offense is going to ride on 38-year-old Josh McCown and RB Bilal Powell. As ridiculous as their number is, you’re a damn fool if you can come up with four wins for these guys. UNDER.
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers (O/U: 10.5)
Last season: 11-5
The Steelers were a pretty dominant team in 2016, and appear primed to repeat. Big Ben Roethlisberger still has WR Antonio Brown and RB Le’Veon Bell at his disposal, and this year he’ll be treated to the return of WR Martavis Bryant, one of the scariest downfield weapons in the whole league. The offense will be monstrous, and the defense has a lot of potential. The LB corps is scary, especially with rookie T.J. Watt joining the fray, and the addition of CB Joe Haden is overkill. OVER.
Cincinnati Bengals (O/U: 8.5)
Last season: 6-9
Last season was tough on Cincy, as Andy Dalton saw two of his top three WRs leave in the offseason, only for star wideout A.J. Green to get hurt after 10 games. He also got nothing from ever-injured TE Tyler Eifert, leaving the team to spin its wheels behind RB Jeremy Hill. Now, Green and Eifert are healthy, as is RB Gio Bernard. They also picked up rookie RB Joe Mixon in the draft, and he has fantasy experts at full mast and picking him in Round 3. The offense is poised to surprise.
Defensively, the Bengals might have some issues, especially with LB Vontaze Burfict suspended for three games (SHOCKER!). The defense may hurt their overall upside, but they’ll be battling for a postseason berth. OVER.
Baltimore Ravens (O/U: 8.5)
Last season: 8-8
The Ravens won eight games last year, and seemingly improved by adding WR Jeremy Maclin to the receiving corps, but I don’t see it. The running game has the potential to be booty, with Terrance West heading up the backfield and injury-prone Danny Woodhead projected to play a big role. There’s not a ton of talent on the offensive line, and this defense is heavily dependent on aging players like Terrell Suggs, Jimmy Smith, Eric Weddle and Brandon Carr. Perhaps Flacco can have a monster season with his receiver group of Maclin, Mike Wallace and Breshad Perriman, all of whom can go deep, but the Bengals’ gains will be Baltimore’s loss. UNDER.
Cleveland Browns (O/U: 4.5)
Last season: 1-15
Last season’s worst team likely won’t be 2017’s bottom-feeder. Cleveland actually has a solid offensive line, and with RB Isaiah Crowell behind it they could have a decent running game. Rookie QB DeShone Kizer might make some plays with his arm and legs, a la Tyrod Taylor, but overall he’s going to hurt them more than he helps.
Defensively, letting go of Haden reveals their true intentions, which are to be awful and draft high again. They’re going to win more than one game in 2017, but not five. UNDER.
AFC SOUTH
Tennessee Titans (O/U: 8.5)
Last season: 9-7
Vegas oddsmakers are pegging the Titans to stand pat, but I think they can soar. QB Marcus Mariota now has a full complement of pass-catchers after the Titans added Eric Decker in free agency and Corey Davis via the draft. RB DeMarco Murray is still here to be a beast on the ground and in the passing game, and so is Derrick Henry, who is just dying to get more work. The Tennessee offense has the potential to be one of the NFL’s very best as long as they unleash Mariota, and let him run a little more too.
On defense…we’ll see. That could be the Titans’ undoing at times, but they look like a very solid bet to reach the postseason. OVER.
Houston Texans (O/U: 8.5)
Last season: 9-7
The Texans are very boring, and very defense-oriented. J.J. Watt is back, and if he gets to play with a healthy Jadeveon Clowney on the other end of the D, these guys will be a nightmare to pass against. The secondary isn’t scaring anyone, but the front seven may not let anyone have time to throw.
On offense, their refusal to hand the reins to rookie Deshaun Watson at QB is mind-blowing and frustrating. It may even cost them a playoff berth. Wasting time with Tom Savage is foolish when WR DeAndre Hopkins is all they have on offense. Watson, unlike Savage, can make plays with his legs. This team will play low-scoring games, and often come out on the wrong end of them because there’s a dearth of talent at the skill position, Hopkins and RB Lamar Miller excluded. UNDER.
Indianapolis Colts (O/U: 7.5)
Last season: 8-8
The Colts are normally my pick to win this division because of QB Andrew Luck, but he’s out to start the year and it’s unclear when he’ll be back. Without him, this entire team goes in the trash, because their backup is Scott Tolzein. Who? Exactly. Frank Gore is way too old to carry an offense, and WRs T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief will be toothless without Luck.
On defense, it’s even uglier. They’ve never had a good defense, and now, with no offense until No. 12 gets back, they could be staring at a losing streak to open the year. If Luck returns by Week 2 I’ll change my tune a little, but for now you have to go UNDER.
Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U: 6.5)
Last season: 3-13
I’ll be honest, I don’t hate everything about the Jaguars. On defense I think they’ll finally start to improve. There are some seriously talented players on that defense, particularly CB Jalen Ramsey, DE Dante Fowler, LBs Myles Jack and Telvin Smith, and S Tashaun Gipson. They might give up a lot of yards, but they’ll also make game-changing plays on a weekly basis. It’s not the worst defense.
Offensively, I love RB Leonard Fournette, and I love WR Allen Robinson. But any offense can be undercut by truly terrible QB play, and Blake Bortles is one of the worst starters in football. Bortles may cut it in fantasy because of garbage time stats, but playing guys like him is how a franchise stays in the dumpster. UNDER.
AFC West
Oakland Raiders (O/U: 9.5)
Last season: 12-4
The Raiders may not win 12 games again, but they don’t have to in order to go over. The offense is stacked again, with QB Derek Carr coming off his best season, WR Amari Cooper ready to join the elite class of receivers, and hometown hero Marshawn Lynch playing the Latavius Murray role. I’m a bit skeptical of Lynch, but even if he looks old and ineffective, DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard are capable of holding it down.
The defense is going to improve as well. DL/LB Khalil Mack is one of the best players in football, hands down, and he and Bruce Irvin are going to terrorize QBs. The pass defense may be shaky at times, but the offense plus the pass rush will cover for it. Lastly, the addition of Cordarrelle Patterson gives Oakland additional explosiveness in the passing game, and a stud return man. OVER.
Los Angeles Chargers (O/U: 7.5)
Last season: 5-11
I’m surprised about this, but I like the Chargers! QB Philip Rivers is steady, and with Keenan Allen back at receiver this offense should score easily. Allen will be joined by breakout receiver Tyrell Williams, and rookie Mike Williams, who miraculously avoided the PUP to start the season. Mix in RB Melvin Gordon, and the skill positions are loaded. The offensive line is light on early-round talent, but they’ll patch it together.
Their typically laughable defense is going to surprise people. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingam are going to harass every passer they see, while two 300+-lb. DTs will stifle running backs. CBs Casey Heyward and Jason Verrett could be among the NFL’s best tandems. Look out for the Bolts. OVER.
Kansas City Chiefs (O/U: 9)
Last season: 12-4
This would be one of the steepest drops in the NFL if they dipped under nine wins after winning 12 in 2016, but I have concerns about this club. QB Alex Smith is just not that good; yes, he limits turnovers but he’s a product of Andy Reid’s scheme. He simply does not have the ability to transcend the offense and carry it, and his talent is worse than ever. Aside from WR Tyreek Hill, and TE Travis Kelce (who doesn’t score TDs by the way), where are the points coming from? Smith may not even be the starter all year, as rookie Pat Mahomes is going to be breathing down his neck.
Defensively DBs Marcus Peters and Eric Berry are outstanding, but some of the perennial studs are getting dangerously old. Justin Houston is 28 with knees made of sand. Tamba Hali is 33 and on the PUP list. LB Derrick Johnson is going to turn 35 this year. It’s going to be shaky for KC. UNDER.
Denver Broncos (O/U: 8.5)
Last season: 9-7
Denver has a very good defense once again, led by LB Von Miller, but Vegas smells what I smell. The offense could very well be trash, despite talented skill players. WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders can only do so much if Trevor Siemian is the man delivering the pigskin. It’s funny that the Broncos brought Brock Osweiler back, as he was probably the worst starting QB in the entire league last year, but won’t bring Colin Kaepernick to camp. Kaepernick could be competent enough to make the offense playoff caliber. As it stands now, the defense may stage a mutiny against the offense before the season ends. UNDER.
PREDICTIONS
1. Patriots
2. Raiders
3. Steelers
4. Titans
5. Chargers
6. Bengals
SUPER BOWL REPRESENTATIVE
Patriots.
MY FAVORITE OVERS
1. Steelers over 10.5
2. Raiders over 9.5
3. Chargers over 7.5
MY FAVORITE UNDERS
1. Bills under 6.5
2. Jets under 3.5
3. Browns under 4.5.