NFL Week 4 Survivor Pool Pick And Best Bets
So I'll keep this short and sweet. Each week, I'll bring you the three best bets against the spread, as well as a pick for you Survivor pool players. I will, of course, not reuse any of my Survivor picks. All lines are courtesy of SportsBook.
2017 Record: 5-4
Used Survivor Picks: Steelers, Raiders, Broncos.
**Home Teams are in caps.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (+3) over Pittsburgh Steelers
Nothing wakes a team up like an absolute mollywhopping, and the Ravens straight up got their asses slumped by the Jaguars in London this week. The Ravens are not anywhere near as bad as they looked losing 44-6 to the Jags, and they’re going to show that this week. First, Ravens-Steelers games are always close slugfests. It’s like Duke-UNC college basketball games; throw out the records, their prior performances that year, and the rosters because these games follow a script.
Second, the Ravens are a better home team, while the Steelers struggle badly on the road. They proved that last week, losing 23-17 on the road to the Bears in a sloppy affair. Baltimore should rebound from the shellacking they took, and you’ll be happy to have points on your side should you choose to plunk down a few dollars on Sunday.
Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) over DALLAS COWBOYS
Underdogs are doing well this year, and I think the Rams are better than any of us expected. Therefore, this line is a mixture of continuing to underestimate the Rams, and preying upon THE public team.
Through the first three weeks, Dallas’ defense is smack in the middle of the league per FootballOutsiders.com. They’ve been worse against the run (21st) than the pass (16th) and that plays directly into the Rams’ hands. Todd Gurley has four touchdowns in three games, and he rushed for 113 yards his last time out; related, it was on Thursday, making Gurley fresh as a daisy for this week’s game. Additionally, QB Jared Goff looks like a real NFL QB this year. He’s thrown for 200+ yards in three consecutive games, and now has Sammy Watkins at his disposal, easily the best receiver he’s played with. Dallas is a good team, but so are the Rams. When two good teams clash, take the one getting almost a full touchdown.
Carolina Panthers (+9) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
This is a bit of a risk, but hear me out. Yes, Tom Brady is averaging 412 yards for the last two games, and he’s chucked eight touchdowns against zero picks, but Carolina’s pass defense is in the Top 10 through three games. The Panthers’ LB corps is among the best in the NFL, and that will help them stuff New England’s running game, forcing them to be one-dimensional. Yeah, Brady is an insanely great dimension, but that’s not a recipe for winning by 10 points.
New England may also be the right team to help Cam Newton get back on track. The Patriots are next-to-last through three games against the pass, which could be the perfect antidote for Newton’s rough time through the air. He should be able to carve up New England, especially if he focuses on getting the ball to his star rookie Christian McCaffery. I full expect the Patriots to win this week, but I do think the Panthers will be able to keep this pretty close.
SURVIVOR PICK: GREEN BAY PACKERS over Chicago Bears
SORRY FOR LAST WEEK :-/