NFL Week 5 Survivor Pick and Best Bets
So I'll keep this short and sweet. Each week, I'll bring you the three best bets against the spread, as well as a pick for you Survivor pool players. I will, of course, not reuse any of my Survivor picks. All lines are courtesy of SportsBook.
2017 Record: 7-5
Used Survivor Picks: Steelers, Raiders, Broncos, Packers.
**Home Teams are in caps.
Green Bay Packers (+2) over DALLAS COWBOYS
Last week I loved the Rams because Dallas was getting 6.5 points, based on the fact that the public loves betting the Cowboys, and not based on how the teams had been playing. Although the Packers are also a major public team, I’m going to go right ahead and pick against America’s Team for a second straight week.
This is based almost entirely on the Cowboys’ defense, which is weak, having to deal with the best QB in football in Aaron Rodgers. The Packers’ passing game is absolutely lethal, and it’s looking like RB Ty Montgomery might actually be able to go this week despite breaking his ribs on Thursday night. Dallas has a potent offense as well, and Green Bay’s defense isn’t exactly the stuff of legend, but I’m going to go with Aaron Rodgers vs. a weak D every time if he’s the one getting points.
HOUSTON TEXANS (-1) over Kansas City Chiefs
The Texans are +1 on Pregame.com, so do a little research if you want to bet this game, but whatever the final number is it represents disrespect to an impressive Texans team at home. These guys are one play away from being 3-1, with one of their losses coming on a last-gasp TD pass in New England. Rookie QB Deshaun Watson is taking the league by storm, accounting for seven total touchdowns in his last two games and looking like he’s still at Clemson running over ACC opponents. And for as impressive as the Chiefs have been to start 2017, their dirty little secret is a run defense that ranks 25th against the run.
Expect the Texans to ram Lamar Miller and D’Onta Foreman down their throat, while keeping them honest with Watson’s own rushing skills. Kansas City has also been sneaky bad vs. No. 1 wide receivers (24th) per FootballOutsiders.com. Meanwhile, Houston ranks inside the Top 10 against the run and the pass. This one will feel good when the Texans hand the Chiefs their first defeat.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (Pk) over New York Jets
The Jets are a pick ‘em on the road??????? Are we serious? I recognize that the Browns are a bad football team, but we need to keep it real here. The Jets suck too, and their 2-2 record is a mirage. They legitimately blasted the Dolphins in Week 3, but they tried hard to give away their most recent win vs. the Jaguars. They also scored those two wins on the road. Let’s not forget Week 1, when the Browns hung in there at home vs. a presumptive Super Bowl contender (Steelers) in the Dawg Pound. Hold your nose and pick the Browns; they’re going to win this game.
SURVIVOR PICK: New England Patriots over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS