MLB 2017 Preview: American League Predictions, Over/Under Bets
In lieu of traditional analysis of each team with predictions – who has time for that? – here are brief overviews of each team, and my recommendation for their over/under. The teams are ranked in the order I believe they will finish.
All over/unders are courtesy of SportsBook.
American League East
Boston Red Sox (O/U: 93): This lineup figures to be the best in the AL, and possibly baseball, despite losing DH David Ortiz to retirement. Mookie Betts became one of the elite players in the sport last year, and the only weak spot in the lineup is catcher. They added an ace in Chris Sale this offseason, so even if David Price’s elbow forces him to play a limited season, they’ll be fine. The bullpen was shored up too with the addition of Tyler Thornburg. OVER
Toronto Blue Jays (O/U: 85.5): The Blue Jays lost 1B Edwin Encarnacion this offseason, which is a major loss for any lineup to absorb. Luckily, they still have MVP candidate Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista to provide thump. If 2B Devon Travis remains healthy this lineup will be different, but still vicious. The rotation is underrated; despite a lack of star power, Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman have outside chances of being aces. Closer Roberto Osuna is a stud, while the rest of the bullpen is a little sus. They’re my biggest concern about this team reaching 86 wins. That said, OVER.
New York Yankees (O/U: 83): I like the Yankees’ lineup a lot with a full season of Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird and Aaron Judge. That’s a lot of youth and power. I like the aging OF tandem of Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury less. I do not love relying on CC Sabathia as a No. 2 starter, and SPs Luis Severino and Chad Green are huge question marks. The bullpen is tremendous, but there’s high variance to the 2017 Yanks. They could contend for a wildcard, or they could finish last. OVER.
Tampa Bay Rays (O/U: 78): This team is weird. The strength figures to be their rotation, but it’s pretty young and volatile. Chris Archer could be a mega ace, or he could walk three batters per nine again and disappoint. Blake Snell is even more extreme, and Alex Cobb once looked like a stone cold ace, but it remains to be seen if he’s fully recovered from Tommy John. The lineup lacks power, and will rely on 3B Evan Longoria to repeat last year’s 36-homer campaign to provide teeth. After hitting a combined 33 homers the previous two seasons, I’m skeptical. UNDER.
Baltimore Orioles (O/U: 81): The Orioles lineup is unquestionably devastating. Manny Machado is an elite overall player, Chris Davis is a fearsome home run hitter, and Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Seth Smith and Jonathan Schoop all have pop. Closer Zach Britton is arguably the best in baseball. But beyond that, their pitching flat out sucks. In a division with loaded lineups, their cache of arms won’t cut it. UNDER.
American League Central
Cleveland Indians (O/U: 93.5): The Indians won 94 games last season and dramatically improved their lineup, adding 1B Edwin Encarnacion in free agency and having outfielder Michael Brantley presumably ready for Opening Day. They also boast a monster back end of the bullpen with Andrew Miller and Cody Allen slamming the door when they have a lead. Still, this team isn’t quite a juggernaut, and hitting 94 wins is probably their ceiling. The Indians are clearly good enough to win the AL Central, but it likely won’t take 94 victories. UNDER.
Detroit Tigers (O/U: 83.5): The Tigers won 86 games in 2016, and didn’t get any worse. The lineup remains solid as a rock, built around J.D. Martinez, Miguel Cabrera and Justin Upton, big time run producers. Perhaps this total is building in regression from 2B Ian Kinsler, ace Justin Verlander, and a shaky bullpen. This may be, but the hitters alone make Detroit stronger than a barely-.500 club. OVER.
Kansas City Royals (O/U: 77): I want to like KC more than I do. Their offseason moves included adding two SPs, Jason Hammel and Travis Wood, and OF Jorge Soler, whom they are hoping breaks out as a power hitter with regular playing time. Soler is the key to the Royals’ season, because outside of him this lineup is mostly bereft of power. SP Danny Duffy broke out last year, but they’re relying heavily on him to be their ace and his 179.2 innings last year was a career-high. It was also 43 innings above his previous career high. The bullpen lost Wade Davis, but new closer Kelvin Herrera is underrated. This O/U is low but it’s tough to judge because they will be right around it. OVER.
Minnesota Twins (O/U: 74.5): The Twins’ seasons was fugly last year, and even though I predicted a last place finish, I did not predict fewer than 60 wins. They won’t be good this year by any stretch of the imagination, but they’ll improve a lot just by virtue of young guys like Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario having more experience. 2B Brian Dozier became elite in 2016, and overall this offense has a chance to be decent. Their pitching is 100% rat ass though, and that is going to keep them from 75 wins. UNDER.
Chicago White Sox (O/U: 69.5): The White Sox underwent their tear down this offseason, shipping off OF Adam Eaton and ace Chris Sale for numerous prospects. This year, closer David Robertson, 3B Todd Frazier, and SP Jose Quintana are all candidates to be moved for prospects. As currently constituted there’s enough to notch 70 wins, but once they start tanking further they’ll lose a ton of games. UNDER.
American League West
Houston Astros (O/U: 90.5): The Astros were somewhat of a disappointment in 2016, but that can happen with a young team that has sky-high expectations. This year many of those youthful studs are a year older, and they’ve been supplemented by veteran power hitters – C Brian McCann, OF Carlos Beltran – in trade and free agency. This team might be the deepest in MLB; Evan Gattis, a 30-HR hitter, can’t even find a spot in the lineup right now. The top of the order features three elite power/speed guys in George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, and the rest of the lineup is good enough that they don’t require a breakout from 3B Alex Bregman. The rotation isn’t amazing, but it’s fine. Ditto for the bullpen. Houston will challenge to be the highest-scoring offense in baseball. OVER.
Texas Rangers (O/U: 85.5): Texas is built like Houston, only with more older, high-variance hitters. 2B Rougned Odor, C Jonathan Lucroy, 3B Adrian Beltre, and SS Elvis Andrus are rock solid. What will give Texas the division title is if OF Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Gomez resemble their peak forms, or continue to be injured shells of themselves. The Rangers’ starting pitching is arguably better than Houston’s, although I’m thinking Cole Hamels is due for a down year. I do not like the Rangers’ bullpen at all, but I’m thinking the O/U includes too much regression. OVER.
Seattle Mariners (O/U: 85.5): Vegas has the Mariners in a dead heat with the Rangers, and it’s easy to see why. The AL West is possibly MLB’s deepest division. Seattle is powered by Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager. They added speed in the offseason, acquiring OF Jarrod Dyson and SS Jean Segura off the best season of his career. After Seager the lineup tails off a tad, however, so that knocks them down a peg. Their rotation is interesting. James Paxton is primed to break out and could be an ace. Hisashi Iwakuma should be productive if he can stay healthy, and Drew Smyly could be great or he could have a 5.00+ ERA. Felix Hernandez’s career is about to crash, and Yovani Gallardo has become just a guy. Edwin Diaz is a nice closer, but the bullpen has holes beyond him. This team is Texas-lite. UNDER.
Los Angeles Angels (O/U: 79.5): The Angels are a tough team for me to nail down, because there’s stuff I like here. Like Mike Trout, who is probably the best player I’ll ever see. Like SS Andrelton Simmons playing the best defense in the sport, and whom I think can still have a breakout offensive campaign. I also like their rotation, which doesn’t feature anyone I consider a strong No. 1, but has decent arms from 1 through 5. When it comes down to it, the pitching isn’t good enough to overcome a lineup with some gaping holes, and as good as Trout is one player can’t influence a season like a great basketball player is capable of. So the wise bet is UNDER.
Oakland Athletics (O/U: 73.5): Something tells me the A’s aren’t as bad as they look. I believe Khris Davis’ breakout was mostly real, and I remain a fan of SS Marcus Semien’s game. But the real thing to focus on here is their rotation, which features no one older than 28. There are zero name players populating it, but this is as A’s as a rotation gets. I don’t think it’s amazing, but I can see them scratching out 74 wins. OVER.