2017 March Madness Cinderella Teams: Best Bets To To Pull Off Major Upsets

You’re looking for your bracket buster. Your favorite sleeper to reach the Sweet 16 or further. I’m not arrogant, so I won’t presume to tell you which team will do it. Which No. 12 seed will knock off a No. 5, which is an annual tradition.

I can tell you, however, which teams seem likely to do it. Without further ado, here are the double-digit seeds I think have a nice chance to bring the madness this March.

No. 12 Middle Tennessee State (30-4, 17-1)

We’ll start with a 12-seed, since historically your best chance of a major upset lies with picking these games. Middle Tennessee’s opening matchup is against the No. 5 Minnesota Golden Gophers, a team which was 24-9 this year, but a semi-weak 11-7 in the Big Ten.

Middle Tennessee doesn’t have a deep roster, nor do they have any truly shocking wins this year. What they do have is an identity, and that revolves around three main scorers – Jacorey Williams, Giddy Potts and Reggie Upshaw – all upperclassmen who shot 49 percent or better from the field this season.

This team finished 12th in the nation in field goal percentage and 31st in the nation in turnovers, which tells me they know their strengths and force teams to slow down. And while they’ve been able to play a lot of subpar competition, they have knocked off Vanderbilt and Ole Miss (on the road), dabbling with big conference opposition. I feel pretty confident the Blue Raiders will last more than one game.

No. 10 Marquette (19-12, 10-8)

The Golden Eagles were wobbly all year, going just 10-8 in an underwhelming Big East conference, but a few things stand out. First, they were the best… I repeat, BEST 3-point shooting team in the nation. Marquette drained 43 percent of their treys, and averaged 82.5 points per game, a top 20 mark. They have five players who average double-figure scoring, making it difficult for defenses to key in on one player. Four players average more than four attempts from deep, and all four shoot better than 38 percent from beyond the arc. They are never out of a game.

Marquette is tested. They have faced big-name teams from multiple conferences, and are a Tourney regular, unlike their opponents, the No. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks. South Carolina has a devastating player in Sindarius Thornwell, a senior averaging 21 points per game, but if Marquette can slow him down they’ll cruise.

No. 11 USC (24-9, 10-8)

There are problems here, the first being that USC has to deal with a play-in game vs. Providence. The second is a defense that struggled to rank in the top 200 in a variety of categories. Most of the Trojans can’t guard a chair. That said, this is a dynamic offensive team that averaged 78.7 points per game, a mark that almost cracked the Top 50 in the country.

USC also has proven they can hang with not just good squads, but elite ones. Some of their big wins include SMU, BYU, UCLA, and a win at Washington, a team featuring the likely No. 1 overall pick in the draft Markelle Fultz.

Bennie Boatwright is the player to watch; he averaged 14 points and seven boards as a 6’10 forward, who untraditionally launched 6.6 3-pointers per game, sinking them at a 44 percent clip. USC has a mix of scoring guards and scoring bigs, which makes them an uncomfortable matchup for any squad in the field.

No. 14 New Mexico State (28-5, 11-3)

This is one of my favorite upset picks. It’s become increasingly common to see at least one or two of these really low seeds rise up and shock a big name squad. Last year, it happened to Baylor, when they were clipped by Yale. This year Baylor seems even more vulnerable, and this frisky 14th seed looks scary.

The Aggies are balanced, ranking 52nd in the nation in points per game (78.9) and 60th in opponent points per game (67.2). Even better, they were fourth-best in the nation in opponent 3-point percentage, holding their foes to 29.1 percent from deep. That’s a hell of a thing to be able to do in a single elimination tournament.

Of their top eight players in terms of minutes, not one shoots below 38 percent from the field. Their leading scorer, Ian Baker, averaged 16.6 points per game, but he does seem capable of shooting them out of a game; he made only 30 percent of his 3s despite launching six a game. If he’s on, however, don’t be shocked to see this group fill it up.

No. 15 North Dakota (22-9, 14-4)

We’re getting deep folks. A No. 15 seed pulling off a Tourney upset is highly unlikely, but it does happen. I swear. And North Dakota is the kind of team that can pull it off, especially when matched up against a high seed that’s reliant on young players.

North Dakota is the 35th-best team in the nation in 3-point percentage (38.7 percent), and their 80.5 points per game is Top 30.

Even better, North Dakota is led by a playmaking senior who can do it all, which low-seeded teams really need when duking it out with a traditional power. These small schools need players who are on the level of their opponents, and senior Quinton Hooker qualifies.

He averaged 19 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.8 steals per game this year. Those numbers include going 43.6 percent from deep on just shy of six attempts. If you are really trying to have fun, grow a set and roll with the Fighting Hawks.