AFC Super Bowl Pick, Over/Under Bets, Division Winners
In lieu of traditional analysis of each team with predictions – who has time for that? – here are brief overviews of each squad, and my recommendation for their over/under. All over/unders courtesy of SportsBook.
AFC East
1. New England Patriots (O/U: 10.5): Look the Patriots win this division just about every year, so betting against them is a fool’s errand. But…they are without Tom Brady for the first four weeks, and they’ve got injury/suspension problems approaching Dallas-level bad. RB Dion Lewis, LB Rob Ninkovich, and T Sebastian Vollmer are all out for one reason or another. And the AFC East has quality squads. There’s enough here to scrape out Ws even with Brady missing, but for an 11-win season to happen they can’t have any more hiccups. UNDER
2. New York Jets (O/U: 7.5): The Jets are being buried because of their brutal-looking schedule, but I’m not one to make much of preseason schedules. We can’t predict injuries, and we’re often treated to surprisingly good and bad teams, so I’m just going mostly off rosters. And the Jets are lowkey loaded. This is a Top 5 defense, a Top 5 receiving duo (Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker), and the offensive line is solid. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is a big question mark, but he tossed 30+ TDs last year. This is a good team. OVER
3. Miami Dolphins (O/U: 7): The ‘Fins are flying under the radar now after being a trendy 2015 sleeper. But they improved. They have a scary D-line with Ndamukong Suh and Mario Williams up front. People will laugh, but Eagles rejects Kiko Alonso and Byron Maxwell are solid players. And Adam Gase, a QB-whisperer, should be able to coax production from Ryan Tannehill, especially with an offensive line featuring four first-round picks. Also…Jarvis Landry is a breakout candidate. OVER
4. Buffalo Bills (O/U: 8): Can you think of a more disastrous offseason in recent memory? Rex Ryan’s defense is ravaged by suspensions, and his offense is reliant on RB LeSean McCoy’s health, and QB Tyrod Taylor repeating his highly unlikely success from last year. Mix in Rex being on the hottest seat in the NFL (leads to rash decisions) and this team lacking depth at just about every position, and this has dumpster fire written all over it. I LOVE this UNDER
AFC NORTH
1. Cincinnati Bengals (O/U: 9.5): I’m uneasy about the Bengals after they lost Andy Dalton’s No. 2 and No. 3 receivers, but this team has proven over recent seasons they are always solid under Marvin Lewis. As long as rookie receiver Tyler Boyd isn’t a total bomb, the defense will be good enough to support this relatively pedestrian offense. Then again, this defense does rely on 33-year-old CB Adam “Pacman” Jones, so while I’m offering recommendations on every team, you may not want to put any real sheckles on this. OVER
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (O/U: 10.5): I don’t know why the over/under is 10.5 when this team LOST receiver Martavis Bryant for the whole season, and Le’Veon Bell for the first three games. The offensive line is awesome and with Ben Roethlisberger running the show the offense will put up tons of points, but not quite as much as last year. Defensively, the secondary gives me pause. This is a good team, but probably not elite. UNDER
3. Baltimore Ravens (O/U: 8.5): The Ravens will be in the mix this season, and you shouldn’t underestimate their talent. With QB Joe Flacco back, WR Steve Smith will produce, and this running game has a lot of backs that can contribute. Defensively, the players look impressive; LBs Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil are both into their 30s though and may be on the precipice of decline. Ditto for safeties Eric Weddle and Lardarius Webb. This team could win the division, or it could get old quick and win six games. UNDER
4. Cleveland Browns (O/U: 4.5): The Browns are going to be real bad. I’m actually excited about the situation for RGIII, and I think he’ll be a surprising value in fantasy football, but IRL this team’s going to struggle. This team will run the ball effectively, but do just about everything else terribly. UNDER
AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts (O/U: 9): This is a fair number, but QB Andrew Luck is back, and he has a full complement of explosive receiving options. Frank Gore isn’t dead yet, and really, if the offense needs to chuck it 45-50 times a week with Luck, then that’s probably good enough to win this piss-poor division. Luck can single-handedly drag this team to a 10-win season, provided his weak offensive line doesn’t get him killed. OVER
2. Houston Texans (O/U: 8.5): It’s tough not to love this defense; J.J. Watt is legendarily incredible, but the rest of the D is deep too. The offense, however, is incredibly young and unproven, save for WR DeAndre Hopkins. Lamar Miller is very talented, but can he be a featured back and stay healthy? Is QB Brock Osweiler actually good? Can any receiver besides Hopkins legally drink? This is a team that will be better next year. UNDER
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U: 7.5): This team is trendy AF. They are LOADED at the skill positions after swiping RB Chris Ivory from the Jets, but there are holes and questions. QB Blake Bortles has to prove he wasn’t a garbage-time fueled fluke, and the defense, while upgraded from a talent standpoint, remains raw and injury-prone. Like Houston, these guys will be better down the road, but mildly disappointing in 2016. UNDER
4. Tennessee Titans (O/U: 5.5): As a strong believer in QB Marcus Mariota, it hurts to be so down on the Titans. Hate the coach, hate the lack of creativity he adheres to. With one of the most dynamic running threats in the NFL at QB, they’re determined to be a ground-and-pound bore with DeMarco Murray. Derrick Henry is more exciting, and paired with Mariota they could be devastating. Overall though, the talent isn’t there and the defense may be abysmal. UNDER
AFC WEST
1. Denver Broncos (O/U: 9.5): Denver won a Super Bowl with poor QB play from Week 1 all the way through. That doesn’t mean it’s wise to try to run that back with a potentially even worse QB. Trevor Siemian doesn’t inspire any confidence, and this offense has the potential to be really bad. But they have Von Miller and Aqib Talib and DeMarcus Ware, so at the end of the day they’re going to be extremely difficult to beat each week. OVER
2. Oakland Raiders (O/U: 8.5): The Raiders are everyone’s darling this year, and while I tend to avoid these trendy teams, Oakland jumps out. Derek Carr has a ton of promise at QB, and the receiving corps could be elite if WR Amari Cooper makes a leap in Year 2. Khalil Mack will lead an exciting defense that added two Seahawks (Bruce Irvin, Malcolm Smith) and a top-flight CB (Sean Smith). They can challenge Denver for the division crown, but they might be a wee bit too young to pull it off in 2016. OVER
3. Kansas City Chiefs (O/U: 9.5): Jamaal Charles not being fully ready for Week 1 hurts, and it is worrisome for an offense that’s utterly reliant on him. The talent around him is middling, and the defense will be badly hurt by missing DE Justin Houston for a minimum six weeks. Andy Reid pulls off miracles sometimes, but this year, in a tough division, he’ll need to be Lord Voldemort. UNDER
4. San Diego Chargers (O/U: 7.5): The Chargers have a good offense, but outside of their secondary, the defense is a wreck. Plus, TE Antonio Gates is getting pretty old, and he remains an integral part of the passing game. UNDER
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. New England Patriots
4. Denver Broncos
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
6. Oakland Raiders
SUPER BOWL PICK
New England Patriots