NFC Super Bowl Pick, Over/Under Bets, and Division Winners
In lieu of traditional analysis of each team with predictions – who has time for that? – here are brief overviews of each squad in the NFC, and my recommendation for their over/under. All over/unders are courtesy of SportsBook.
NFC East
1. New York Giants (O/U :8): The Giants are flawed as hell, just look at their linebacker corps. But the additions they made on defense (Olivier Vernon, Janoris Jenkins), while overpriced, will help. Offensively they’ll have a high end passing game with Ben McAdoo continuing to run the show, arguably the best WR in football in the fold (Odell Beckham Jr.), and QB Eli Manning still kicking. OVER
2. Washington Redskins (O/U: 7.5): Like the Giants, there are major flaws to this roster. Adding CB Josh Norman was huge, but the run defense will still be horrible, rookie WR Josh Doctson isn’t healthy, and the jury is still out on QB Kirk Cousins. All that said, this division is trash so they’re still probably the second-best team. UNDER
3. Dallas Coboys (O/U: 8): This would be a nice bet for the over if, oh, they weren’t completely ravaged by injuries and suspensions before the first game. Here are Dallas’ suspended players: DeMarcus Lawrence, Randy Gregory, Rolando McClain. All on defense. Here are the wounded: Tony Romo, Darren McFadden, Jaylon Smith, James Hanna. They signed Mark Sanchez to compete with rookie Dak Prescott at QB. UNDER
4. Philadelphia Eagles (O/U: 6.): This is the rare team with neither depth nor top-end talent. They seemed to acknowledge that when they traded Sam Bradford, who admittedly isn’t very good, but still gave them their best chance at winning. Philly’s defense could be surprisingly good, but beyond that it’s a clear bottom-feeder building for the future. UNDER
NFC NORTH
1. Minnesota Vikings (O/U: 8.5): The Vikings took a huge hit losing QB Teddy Bridgewater, but the rest of the team is good enough to win games once Sam Bradford is up to speed on their offense. Adrian Peterson is still the best RB in the game, and this receiving corps isn’t flashy—it’s just deep. The defense has the potential to be among the best in football. OVER
2. Green Bay Packers (O/U: 11): Jordy Nelson is back so this offense should return to being one of the best in the NFL, but the defense remains questionable. They’ll certainly compete to be atop this division, and possibly the NFC, but 11 wins is a tall order. Your best bet is to go…UNDER
3. Detroit Lions (O/U: 7): This team has dark horse potential. Losing Calvin Johnson stings like a mother, but their receiving corps remains very deep, especially with the addition of old faithful Anquan Boldin. And look out for this defense. It’s going to put lots of pressure on QBs and force turnovers. They might be a force in the NFC East, but in this division they will probably struggle. Or, they’ll shock us all. OVER
4. Chicago Bears (O/U: 7.5): Chicago won’t be good. They have a nice secondary, but outside of WR Alshon Jeffery the offense is bereft of real weapons, and the defense is going to have a tough time stopping people. In arguably the NFL’s toughest division, the Bears are in for a rough season.
NFC SOUTH
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U: 7.5): The Bucs offense is loaded, and QB Jameis Winston is only getting better. I was not a believer as a rookie, but he won me over (on the field!). The Bucs have surrounded him with plenty of weapons, most notably WR Mike Evans who is about to become one of the truly elite pass-catchers, and an offensive line that will improve. Defensively there are big holes, but this offense can carry the team to contention. OVER
2. Carolina Panthers (O/U: 10.5): Cam Newton will be in contention for the MVP award again, and he’s got his best WR, Kelvin Benjamin, back in the fold. That said, this offense isn’t deep, and the Panthers’ defense suffered a big loss when they let CB Josh Norman walk away. It may work out long-term, but for 2016 he leaves a giant hole. Everything went their way last season; they’ll be good again, but the division will be much more of a dogfight. UNDER
3. New Orleans Saints (O/U: 7.5): Drew Brees has his deepest receiving corps in quite a while, even if there’s no true stud (sorry Brandin Cooks). Mark Ingram returns as the team’s two-way workhorse out of the backfield, and overall this should be an excellent offense. Defensively, they remain extremely weak though, and that sets them up for another frustrating .500 or so campaign. OVER
4. Atlanta Falcons (O/U: 7.5): The Falcons will be fun when Matt Ryan bombs it to Julio Jones, and Devonta Freeman will bust a few big plays, but overall this is a shallow roster devoid of defense. There are no studs on the defensive side of the ball, and if Freeman’s second half was real, then the Falcons become very one-dimensional. UNDER
NFC WEST
1. Arizona Cardinals (O/U: 9.5): This O/U is fishy AF, but to my eyes, this team has depth at each position and high end talent atop most of the spots. This secondary has elite playmakers, and as long as QB Carson Palmer doesn’t fall off a cliff, this will be one of the best passing games in the NFL. RB David Johnson has a chance to be the top rusher in football this year as a cherry on top. So why the hell isn’t their number higher? I don’t know. OVER
2. Seattle Seahawks (O/U: 10.5): Seattle has the number that Arizona should’ve received. QB Russell Wilson is one of the best in football, and this is still a ferocious defense, but they’ve lost RB Marshawn Lynch, and don’t stack up offensively with the Cards. Seattle’s defense is every bit as tough as the Cardinals’ but the Seahawks’ roster as a whole is an A- compared to Arizona’s A. UNDER
3. Los Angeles Rams (O/U: 7.5): They’re a tempting sleeper pick because of a defense that figures to wreak havoc on opposing QBs, but their own QB situation is just horrendous. Jared Goff won’t even be active for Week 1, and their receiving corps is far from good enough to carry Case Keenum. Tavon Austin is an explosive player, but not a centerpiece just yet. Todd Gurley can only do so much. They’ll be a bit of a roller coaster, winning games they should lose and vice versa. But at the end of the day…UNDER
4. San Francisco 49ers (O/U: 5.5): National Anthem kneeling aside, Colin Kaepernick would really be the ideal QB for Chip Kelly to pair with RB Carlos Hyde for an up-tempo attack. Buttttttt….they’re using Blaine Gabbert instead, and they’ve given him exactly zero threats to utilize in the passing game. Add to that a middling defensive mix, and this is looking like one of the worst teams in football. 5.5 is a low number, but UNDER.
PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
1. Arizona Cardinals
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. New York Giants
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Carolina Panthers
SUPER BOWL PICK
Arizona Cardinals