2024 Team Previews: Philadelphia Eagles

Updated 8/26/24

Philadelphia Eagles 2024 Preview

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

**A.J. Brown, WR (ADP: 9, WR6): Brown is a monster, and the fact that he’s outside the Top 5 among fantasy WRs speaks to the insane talent at the top of the position. The only possible knock on Brown is that the Eagles’ offense got stuck in the mud in the back half of 2023, and their QB, Jalen Hurts, isn’t a traditional passer who can reliably support a bunch of weapons without the running game serving as a base for his success.

In September and October, Brown had 60 catches for 939 yards and five touchdowns. From November through January he caught 46 passes for 517 yards and two scores. The Philly offense got figured out, and that took a big toll on Brown’s production, as well as everyone else’s. Part of that is for all of Hurts’ gifts, he is simply not a prolific dropback passer, and that always carries the potential of a chilling effect on his receivers when the offense is not clicking. But hey, Brown finished with 106 receptions, 1,456 yards and seven touchdowns, and had a six-game stretch in which he eclipsed 120 receiving yards in every game. Let’s not get hung up on the distribution of the production.

Brown is elite in all facets of the position, humiliating defenses in man coverage at a 78.9% rate, beating press at an 82.4% rate, and succeeding vs. zone a healthy 81.5% of the time. He also saw his route tree tweaked in a way that wasn’t beneficial; 22.5% of his routes were nines, and while he’s excellent on them, it’s a lower success rate pattern because it’s so far down the field, and Hurts is not an accurate passer. He also saw much less slot usage than he had under Shane Steichen, making his routes more predictable. Again, if this is what Brown does when conditions aren’t optimal, God help the league if Kellen Moore fixes these bugs. This ADP is a gift for folks with back of the first found draft slots.

**Saquon Barkley, RB (ADP: 11, RB5): Barkley at this ADP is another gift, as fantasy managers penalize the Eagles for their putrid end of season run. He’s a new addition to an offense that was already stuffed with superstar talent, and that surrounding talent seems to be somewhat cooling the excitement about his arrival. For years, Barkley was a Top 5 fantasy pick, and now that he’s left one of the NFL’s lowest-wattage offenses (Giants) for one of the most explosive, his ADP is slightly down?

Barkley wasn’t efficient at all last year, failing to reach 1,000 yards on the ground and averaging just 3.9 yards per carry, but he was running in the most difficult offensive environment possible. Every defense was completely keyed in on him as he had to operate with exactly zero WRs who could threaten a defense, beyond dreadful QB play and the third-worst run blocking line in the league. That’s all changing now, and without stacked boxes, Barkley’s big play potential is going to be back in a big way. Yes, Jalen Hurts poses a massive threat to his ability to score double-digit TDs on the ground, but he will still get his fair share, and the Tush Push may be a less frequently used play in 2024 without C Jason Kelce to lead the way. Barkley is a superstar, dual-threat RB talent who just joined what projects to be one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league with very little credible competition for snap share. And he’s available at the end of Round 1? Wow.

Jalen Hurts, QB (ADP: 32, QB3): Running QBs are a fantasy cheat code, and Hurts is not only one of the most prolific running QBs doing it, he has a literal cheat code of a play built into their offense to get him rushing TDs. Hurts led the NFL in rushing TDs last year (15), and it was his third consecutive season with double-digit rushing scores. His efficiency and total yardage on the ground dipped, likely due to a knee injury he suffered fairly early into the season sapping his explosiveness, but he was still plenty valuable as a rusher. It’s fair to wonder if losing Jason Kelce and adding Saquon Barkley will ding that TD total, but he should still be at or near 10 as a floor because on the goal line he’s still an elite option.

Still, while Hurts was an elite fantasy QB last season, he did have some duds mixed in down the stretch, and many of his games were big sweats for Hurts managers that he saved with those rushing scores. If he had 10 scores on the ground rather than 15 in 2023, we likely would be more sour with him. Hurts’ 3,858 passing yards were a career-high, but despite throwing to one of the best pass-catching groups in the NFL his TD pass total went up by just one, from 22 to 23, despite 78 more pass attempts.

He was pretty inaccurate in the 1-10 yard range to the middle and right side of the field, as well as the 10-20 yard range to the right. On the whole, he was just not excellent from 1-10 yards in 2023, and that stalled lots of drives and put the Eagles in third and long situations that forced early punts, and less time of possession. Between that, and the Eagles generally being more of a run-first outfit, and you can see a world in which Hurts remains a high-level fantasy QB, but one who maybe drops off to the point where this ADP is not justified. I have no issues with taking him here, but with RBs like Rachaad White and WRs like Mike Evans going around this area, Hurts cannot have any drop off and still be considered a good value.

DeVonta Smith, WR (ADP: 46, WR23): Smith has become a very consistent player, putting up back-to-back seasons of over 1,000 yards with seven touchdowns. He caught 81 passes this season, down from 95 in 2022, but gained a bit of efficiency (13.2 yards per catch vs. 12.6), and his volume drop can be pinned to the Eagles’ offense overall hitting a pothole. Smith is an elite player vs. man (73.1%, 75th percentile), and even more destructive vs. press (77.1%, 82nd percentile). The Eagles trotted him out in the slot more than ever before in Year 3 (25% of snaps) and he proved an adept zone beater too (80.6% success, 67th percentile).

He's just an all-around excellent WR, whose ceiling is probably capped as a high-end WR2 with the Eagles because he is not the primary target here, and that leads to some real dud games, like his one-catch, six-yard effort in Week 5 vs. the Rams. That isn’t a Smith problem, it’s that he’s never the focal point of the offense because he’s teammates with Brown. If you can live with the occasional letdown, Smith is a rock solid high-end WR2, and he can even be a low-end WR1 for rosters that are super loaded at RB and a onesie position.

Dallas Goedert, TE (ADP: 108, TE12): Goedert is a damn good player, but it’s time I let go of the dream of him becoming a breakout Top 5 TE. It’s not going to happen in Philadelphia because there really are too many mouths to feed. This doesn’t mean he’s not a season-long TE, nor does it mean that he can’t explode in a season where injuries attack this pass-catching corps. It’s a simple acknowledgement that in six NFL seasons he’s never broken the five-touchdown ceiling, he’s never put up more than 830 yards, and he’s never had a 60-reception campaign. His talent implies he could be one thing, and his entire track record suggests he’s not that thing. At this ADP, he’s probably a value, but he’s mostly indistinguishable from several players in this range, and those players aren’t in offenses with three or four options in front of them in the pecking order.

Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)

Favorite Deep Sleeper

Jahan Dotson, WR (ADP: 159, WR62): Dotson stunk last season for fantasy managers, who thought they were drafting a WR2, and at worst a weekly FLEX, and instead got a waiver wire-caliber player. He finished with 49 receptions, 518 yards and four touchdowns. The catches and yards were minor upticks considering he played in five more games than he did as a rookie, and the drop in touchdowns took those small gains from bad to disastrous.

It is not easy to decide if being traded to the Eagles is good news or bad. Dotson was still a good player on the field last season – 63rd percentile vs. man, 56th vs. zone – even if the production doesn’t make that clear. He’s going to upgrade massively at QB from a season ago, and he’s in a far better offense, but he was lined up to be Washington’s WR2 with a very promising rookie QB taking over. In Philly, he barely rates with Brown and Smith monopolizing targets, Barkley demanding a ton of touches, and Hurts himself as a serious threat for TDs. And he’s also got to contend with Dallas Goedert as well. I don’t really believe in “too many mouths to feed” when the offense is elite, but this is definitely too many! Dotson should see a lot of run because the rookie options Philly drafted clearly were not cutting it, but I expect his slice of the target pie to be too small to pop without an injury in front of him.

Deep Cuts (150 & later)

Will Shipley, RB (ADP: 238, RB68): Shipley’s best season in college was back in 2022, when he amassed 1,424 yards from scrimmage and scored 15 touchdowns. He’s not going to matter whatsoever without an injury to Barkley, and he has to contend with Gainwell, who was put on this Earth to be frustratingly competent as a real-life RB and take work away from more exciting players that fantasy managers care about, but if you want an Eagles handcuff I prefer the ceiling of an unknown to Gainwell.

Kenneth Gainwell, RB (ADP: 235, RB67): My thoughts on Gainwell were made clear in the Shipley section. Gainwell is a good real-life depth RB, but he’s irrelevant for fantasy. Even when he gets big work, which isn’t often, he’s just unexceptional.

Johnny Wilson, WR (ADP: 308, WR98): Wilson didn’t have big stats at FSU, but he’s a big, big man who can definitely be a nuclear red zone threat. His freakish size led some to view him as a possible TE convert, but Reception Perception astutely points out that in college he was a straight up X receiver, and a good one at that. As a junior he averaged over 20 yards per reception, who was over 70% success against man and press coverage. There are two problems though that are likely culprits for his ADP being in the toilet. First, he doesn’t have good hands, as Reception Perception highlights a 50% contested catch rate and a 12% drop rate. Big YIKES! Second, he’s not going to see the field with Brown and Smith mostly on the outside, especially if fellow rookie Ainias Smith is earning playing time in the slot, pushing Smith and Brown to the X and flanker spots.

Ainias Smith, WR (N/A): Smith doesn’t have elite production in college to point to, which I usually want to see before I get excited about a player. So that means I’m not super excited about this rookie. But there’s a clear path to playing time in three-WR sets for the Eagles, and Smith has a skill-set suited for the slot that can allow both Brown and Smith to wipe dudes out on the outside. He beat zone at a 77.8% rate in college while taking more than 80% of his snaps out of the slot. Smith also toggled between WR and RB at times in his five NCAA seasons, making him an option for the Eagles’ coaches to get creative with at times. I don’t expect him to be in lineups every week, but he’s a free dart throw and if Philly tries to manufacture a handful of touches for him per game he might be a high-risk, high-reward streaming option.