2024 Team Previews: Seattle Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks 2024 Preview

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

**D.K. Metcalf, WR (ADP: 40, WR18): Seattle disappointed offensively in 2023, and in some respects, that includes Metcalf, but he was mostly his stellar self. His reception total dropped to 66, the lowest he’s posted since his rookie season, but he traded in volume for efficiency. Despite the second-lowest catch total of his career, his 1,114 yards were the second-most of his career, and he found the end zone eight times even as QB Geno Smith regressed from a banner year in 2022.

We’ve seen Metcalf be a blue chip WR1 in the past, and while he hasn’t recaptured the highs of his 1,300+-yard explosion in 2020, Metcalf is a safe bet for 1,000+ yards and 7-8 touchdowns as a floor, with a touchdown total well into the double-digits as a ceiling. He hasn’t put forth quite the metronomic consistency of Mike Evans, but from a size, speed and utilization aspect he’s very similar. He’s also similar in that he’s been around for a while, so his sheen has worn off a bit and he’s not as exciting anymore as other players. This keeps his ADP manageable, like it is right now, and makes him a pretty nice value. Ideally, he’s your WR2 but he can be a WR1 on teams that are stacked at RB and with a monster QB or TE.

**Kenneth Walker III, RB (ADP: 44, RB16): There was a strange rush to downplay Walker last season when the Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet, as if we haven’t seen this franchise, in the past, ignore the draft capital spent on this position in favor of the best player. And as a rookie, Walker was phenomenal. His sophomore season was a bit choppier, but he played in 15 games and churned out 1,164 yards from scrimmage and scored nine touchdowns. Walker was effective near the goal line, but also offered lots of explosiveness, racking up 10 plays of 20 yards or longer, with two of them going for touchdowns.

Charbonnet is a good complement to Walker, and with an entirely new staff running the show it could change up the RB usage here, but Walker was PFF’s No. 6 RB in 2023. That’s not an end-all, be-all, but it does show that the stats line up with the actual performance, and the big chunk plays that can win weeks are there. The same backup who failed to significantly dent Walker’s playing time last season is in place, so there’s no real reason to fear a greater incursion on his playing time. Walker should be getting more love, and the fact that he’s not is creating value for us.

**Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR (ADP: 102, WR43): Smith-Njigba is a super interesting player for 2024, and I touched on his upside here. JSN didn’t quite go off like other rookie WRs in the 2023 class, and he was touted and drafted as the cream of the crop, so he felt disappointing. But he dealt with a training camp injury that slowed his acclimation into the offense out of the gate, and when he was on the field, the Pete Carroll offense had a big role in limiting the damage he was able to do.

Breaking down his rookie season, JSN was actually impressive, ranking in the 70th percentile vs. man coverage (72% success) and in the 76th percentile (81.5% success) vs. zone. These are really good marks, especially for a rookie, and those rates don’t exactly match up with his pedestrian final season line of 63 receptions, 628 yards and four touchdowns. Part of the problem was he took the majority of his reps from the slot, and while that’s a good use for him based on his skill set, the Seahawks often ran two-WR sets with Smith-Njigba on the sideline. JSN absolutely can be a flanker wide receiver, and while Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are fine options in those formations, it may behoove Seattle to ditch them in favor of more three-WR sets to truly maximize their potential star.

JSN does not possess game-breaking speed, and it shows on his nine route and corner route success rates, both below 50%. He’s a true technician, thriving on curls, digs and outs, while also coming just shy of 90% success on routes to the flat. His 6.1-yard average depth of target (ADOT) needs to rise in 2024. The Seahawks have long been a pound the rock type of team, but they have the personnel to air it out more. I expect the new coaches to recognize this, and make it a point to involve JSN much more, and have him moving around the formation giving defenses more to think about.

Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)

Tyler Lockett, WR (ADP: 135, WR52): Lockett is one of the reasons for JSN’s muted rookie campaign, as he was on the field more and occupied a role that I’d like to see JSN in more often. Lockett has long been one of the NFL’s more underappreciated players, but at age 31, signs of decline are becoming visible. 2023 was the first time since 2018 that Lockett put up under 1,000 yards, and he played in every game. He caught fewer than 85 passes for the third straight season, and his trademark efficiency vanished, as his yards per reception dropped from 2022 by a full yard, and fell by almost five yards from 2021.

Lockett’s still fast and versatile, and should be an explosive weapon in a new, hopefully more pass-heavy offense, but Smith-Njigba is ascendant. With all respect to Lockett, if I’m investing in Seattle pass-catchers, I’ll gamble on being a year too early on Lockett being done as a top fantasy option before I get stuck holding the bag with him being a total dud.

Zach Charbonnet, RB (ADP: 1405, RB45): Charbonnet had a bunch of hype as a big threat to Walker’s snap count and goal line opportunity, and…proved to be a capable enough backup and not much more. He finished the season with 671 yards from scrimmage and one lone touchdown, with the lone bright spot being his 33 receptions serving as proof of concept that he does have a three-down back skill set.

The major issue with Charbonnet’s case for unseating Walker, or significantly eating into his snap share is that Charbonnet is just not an explosive player. He runs hard, he can catch, and he is a load once he gets going but he requires one of two things to be a fantasy factor; first, he needs a lot of volume, or second, he’ll need a lot of goal line opportunity. With Walker present, both paths are blocked, and won’t open up without a Walker injury. And even then, he will still need a ton of carries to put up big yardage because he’s not going to rip off chunk plays like Walker will. This ADP is late enough that he won’t hurt you with a repeat of 2023, but I would not draft him with grand designs of him being a sneaky RB2 by season’s end. The only path to that is an injury to Walker.

Geno Smith, QB (ADP: 184, QB27): I’ll admit, I kind of fell for the Geno Smith trap last season. I thought he’d be a lowkey solid option for those who love to wait until the end of the draft to find their value QB, and he turned into a bit of a pumpkin. The fall off was steep; his yards dropped by 658, and he threw 10 fewer touchdowns with only two fewer interceptions. It’s worth noting he did miss two games, but he wasn’t the same guy, and this was not a very good offense in 2023. I’m not very interested in Geno as a fantasy option unless the format is SuperFlex or two-QB, but he could prove himself to be a valuable streamer, especially with the quietly loaded skill position group supplementing him.

Favorite Deep Sleeper

Noah Fant, TE (ADP: 201, TE26): Fant is a talented Iowa TE, which means we can’t ever fully close the book on him being a fantasy-relevant player. The Seahawks seem to follow the general NFC West theme of the fantasy production being heavily concentrated among a few clear options, but Fant has always been an intriguing player with very obvious talent who has never been featured.

His second and third seasons in Denver were promising, with Fant putting up around 670 yards and 3-4 touchdowns before falling off as soon as he got to Seattle. Even if the offense does decide to pass more, he’s got a lot of good options in front of him, so my hopes aren’t high. But he’s physically gifted, and although he’s never scored more than four touchdowns in a season, it’s possible for him to spike in that regard with less attention being paid to him than the big three WRs. It’s a stretch, but I do think in a new offense he could become a high-end streaming option.

Deep Cuts (150 & later)

Sam Howell, QB (ADP: N/A): I don’t think Howell is very good, but he proved last season that he could put up numbers. And really, that’s all we care about right? He was Top 12 in the NFL last year in total passing yards (3,946), and he actually rushed for 263 yards and five rushing TDs. Of course, his 21 TD passes were a bit underwhelming for the yardage he amassed, and he threw 21 interceptions along with his 21 scores. That’s not good! I don’t picture him unseating Geno Smith, but if he did, he becomes a desirable spot start guy vs. weak pass defenses.