2024 Team Previews: Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals 2024 Preview
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR (ADP: 15, WR9): Harrison Jr.’s ADP alarms me, I’ll just be frank about it. As a prospect, he’s basically unimpeachable. He has ideal size, eye-popping college production – 67 receptions, 1,211 yards, 15 touchdowns – and a complete skill set that should translate on Day 1. Harrison’s success rates are those of a player who can be used anywhere in the formation at any time. He beat man coverage at a 74% rate (83rd percentile), and beat zone at an 83.2% rate (80th percentile). He absolutely slaughtered defenders who tried to press him (78.7% success, 87th percentile), and he was pressed on a quarter of his routes. So what’s the problem?
Well…he’s a rookie. This level of prospect has shown in the past that they can deliver big time results in the NFL very quickly, but he’s still never done it before in the pros. And while we’ve seen crazy rookie seasons – think Odell Beckham Jr., Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson – none of those players were drafted as high as Harrison is right now. Harrison is the highest-drafted rookie WR ever in fantasy, and so while he has the upside of those esteemed players, Harrison has to deliver at that historic level to justify this ADP. That’s just asking a lot of a young player, and it’s also heavily tied to Kyler Murray, who is healthy now but hasn’t played in 16 games since 2020. Love the player, but I won’t be getting him at this elevated price.
Trey McBride, TE (ADP: 49, TE3): McBride, however, is a player I can get behind at ADP. He exploded last season for 81 receptions and 825 yards, with a touchdown total of three that is just begging for positive regression. He earned PFF’s No. 5 receiving grade for the position, ahead of Mark Andrews and behind names that you would expect at the top of the position like Travis Kelce and George Kittle. McBride will also benefit from a full season (we hope) of Murray at QB, and without Zach Ertz soaking up TE targets.
There are still a lot of RBs and WRs available in this range that make it hard to pull the trigger on a TE who will be valuable relative to his peers, but not on an actual scoring basis, so the value isn’t screaming at me. But he’s going a good deal after Kelce and Sam LaPorta, so I’m far likelier to wind up with McBride than either of them.
**James Conner, RB (ADP: 55, RB19): Conner had his best season ever in 2023, his seventh NFL season. That’s crazy to think about, but 2023 was Conner’s first ever 1,000-yard season, and his first ever season at five yards per carry. He was a model of efficiency, as he hit that 1,000-yard milestone in just 13 games, and he continued to contribute in the passing game too.
You absolutely must build in the fact that he will miss games, because he has in every season of his career. But when he plays Conner is on the field all game long, offering dual threat production, and most importantly, his success is not tied to Murray’s health. Conner was the centerpiece of the Cardinals’ attack while Murray recovered from knee surgery, and while the team wasn’t great, Conner was super productive. Even with the specter of missed time, Conner feels very safe, and very much like a rock-solid RB2 being drafted like a fringy one.
**Kyler Murray, QB (ADP: 65, QB8): Murray feels like one of the biggest values in fantasy football. Like Conner, Murray carries significant injury risk, and like Conner, Murray produces like crazy when he’s on the field. He doesn’t always look beautiful putting up his points, but at his peak we saw Murray flirt with 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns, numbers that put pocket passers in play as QB1s, in addition to being one of the most prolific rushers at the position.
Murray being at this ADP isn’t about his numbers or the data, it’s about vibes. He’s small, so when he’s running around we’re afraid he’s going to be squashed like a bug. He has a bad rap because people joke that he cares more about Call of Duty than football. He also has an 819-yard, 11-TD season on his resume on the ground. Even last year, fresh off a torn ACL he averaged 5.5 rushing attempts and 30.5 yards per game. We all acknowledge the importance of running the football for fantasy QB value and have exploded the ADP of Anthony Richardson, who ran like gangbusters for four games before getting hurt. We’ve seen Murray run like this before, while also delivering the goods with his arm and last longer than four games. This isn’t a knock on Richardson, whom I’m high on. It’s a flashing neon sign that we’re not high enough on Murray, and we can scoop him up later and have the Richardson experience with a better RB or WR in Richardson’s round.
Trey Benson, RB (ADP: 111, RB39): Benson had some big numbers at Florida State, and should be in line for at least a few starts in 2024 based on Conner’s injury history. That is, if he’s the clear-cut handcuff. When he was drafted, we assumed that job belonged to Benson, but there’s been talk throughout the summer that competition is fierce between Benson, Emari Demercado and Michael Carter. Is my money on Benson to be the primary backup? It is. Does that mean much? Not really. When Conner’s healthy, he’ll dominate snaps and touches, and when Conner’s out, we still need to wait and see the workload split between the backups. Without certainty that Conner’s touches would go right to Benson, I don’t see a way to justify drafting him at all, let alone as anything more than a dart throw.
Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)
Favorite Deep Sleeper
**Michael Wilson, WR (ADP: 195, WR68): Wilson’s season-ending numbers aren’t anything to go crazy over. At 38 receptions, 565 yards and three touchdowns he looks like a run of the mill NFL WR who isn’t worth much further investigation. What his Reception Perception profile shows was a surprisingly effective X receiver with the potential to go to the moon in the right environment a la Nico Collins.
Wilson struggled mightily vs. zones, which is fairly typical of X receivers in general, even high-end ones. He was sturdy vs. man though, defeating it at a 70.4% clip (63rd percentile) and he was just as effective vs. press (70.8% success, 65th percentile). These are really strong marks for a rookie, and now he will begin the year with a Pro Bowl caliber QB throwing the football. Wilson was also toggled a good amount between the X and flanker spots in the offense last season when Marquise Brown went down, proving he can remain useful if the Cardinals decide that Harrison Jr. will be the steady X man in 2024. I’m definitely not calling my shot here and saying Wilson is the next Nico Collins, but Wilson is a good player whose stats were hurt by shaky QB play and learning multiple roles as a rookie. He’s a third banana here, but they should throw a bunch, and he'll benefit from the attention paid to Harrison Jr. and McBride. Wilson becoming a weekly FLEX play wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Deep Cuts (150 & later)
Greg Dortch, WR (ADP: 262, WR80): Dortch is a pure slot receiver, and a very small one at that. I don’t see him ever being a big time fantasy option, but I could see a world where he holds emergency FLEX value in full-PPR formats. He did catch 52 passes for 467 yards and two scores in 2022, while only making four starts.