2024 Team Previews: Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers 2024 Preview

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Ladd McConkey, WR (ADP: 93, WR44): McConkey, a rookie receiver out of Georgia, is the highest-drafted Charger in 2024. That’s wild, especially considering that he never topped 60 receptions in any of his three seasons as a Bulldog. Now, this ADP isn’t especially prohibitive, but it is still basically a huge bet on our ability to project his role in this offense, because he does not have exceptional size, speed or college production.

Don’t take this to mean I am down on his talent. Per Reception Perception he was elite vs. both man (74.6% success, 85th percentile) and zone (83.3% success, 81st percentile) and he ran a very diverse route tree with above-average success rates on just about every route besides the dig. This is a very good player, but one who is untested against NFL-caliber DBs, and a player who was really terrible vs. press coverage (8th percentile), which could relegate him to a slot-only role in Year 1. Ideally though, McConkey is the Chargers’ flanker from Week 1 which will allow him to spread his wings and use his technical prowess to get open all day long and be a half and full-PPR weapon. I do like McConkey, and there’s a strong chance he winds up leading the Chargers in targets, but I wouldn’t bank on many touchdowns, nor do I expect major things from any Chargers pass catcher. I think he’s a bit overdrafted at this ADP.

Gus Edwards, RB (ADP: 115, RB35): Edwards is being drafted as the top guy in a murky backfield that should produce a lot of fantasy value if the work can be concentrated among one or two players. Edwards signed early in the offseason, and he very much looks like a prototypical workhorse back, which new coach Jim Harbaugh wants. Harbaugh’s offenses are always in the Top 10 of rushing attempts, and they took a blowtorch to their receiver room this offseason. And yet, as I noted here when he signed on to the Bolts, Edwards has long been an efficient rusher, but one-dimensional and rarely trusted as a top guy.

Edwards has never logged 200 carries in a season (198 last year), and he set a career-high in 2023 for yardage with just 810. His fantasy finish was propped up by 13 touchdowns last year, but prior to that explosion his highest total was six in 2020, and outside of that he’d never scored more than three. Lastly, Edwards is a non-factor as a receiver, and shockingly has scored zero receiving touchdowns in five NFL seasons. It would be easy to dismiss all this because, at this ADP, he could still return value as an early-down banger with all the goal line work, but I’m not convinced that’s just all for Edwards. This RB room is crowded, and his backfield mate, J.K. Dobbins, has a long history of stifling Edwards’ playing time. At this ADP he could be a strong pick, but it’s much riskier than you might think at first glance.

**Justin Herbert, QB (ADP: 120, QB16): Herbert has looked like a big value all offseason to me, and now that he’s dealing with a foot injury that could drive his price down even further, he might go from a good value to a great one. The narrative is that Harbaugh’s arrival spells doom for Herbert’s patented passing volume, and that the stripping down of the WR corps is further evidence that this is about to be a ground and pound QB stat killing attack. I’m throwing the challenge flag.

Yes, Harbaugh is known to pound the rock, but he’s also done so with QBs like Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick, hardly dazzling passing talents who simply demand you change your philosophy. Herbert is that kind of talent, and Harbaugh’s not a dummy. He is not going to stand on the sideline with the equivalent of Stark technology at QB and rely on Revolutionary war era bayonets like Gus Edwards. It’s a recipe to lose games, and Harbaugh wasn’t brought here to lose.

2023 was a legitimate down year for Herbert, but that doesn’t erase his historic rookie season, and the follow-up campaign in which he threw for over 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns. The stats and play were straight up bad at times, but he is still young and physically almost unmatched. Oh, and he was battling hand injuries during the year, playing behind a middling offensive line, and throwing to a pass catching crew that had one good player in it (Keenan Allen, who is now gone). Herbert has cleared the necessary hurdles for pass-first QBs to be weekly studs multiple times already in his career, and actually runs more than your average pocket passer. He has scored 3+ rushing touchdowns in three of his four seasons, and averages about 15 yards on the ground per game. For managers who still like to wait on QB, it doesn’t get better than this.

**J.K. Dobbins, RB (ADP: 121, RB41): I’ve been on the “don’t sleep on Dobbins” train all offseason, and now that train is picking up speed. He’s participating in everything in camp, backing up bold talk from him about how his recovery from a torn Achilles, which he suffered after going through multiple torn knee ligaments the previous year, wasn’t that tough. We really need to see that to believe it, but if Dobbins really is all systems go for Week 1, as I wrote here, he has long been a thorn in the side of Gus Edwards playing time.

Dobbins has never not been a teammate of Edwards, and when they both played for the run-heavy Ravens, Dobbins always ran ahead of Edwards and outproduced him. We’ve seen precious little of Dobbins – 9 games in the last two seasons, injured in Week 1 of 2023 – but he’s been efficient (5.8 yards per carry) and he had no problem scoring touchdowns as a rookie in 2020 with nine scores. There is a lot more upside with Dobbins than Edwards, and you can now get him for cheaper.

Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)

Joshua Palmer, WR (ADP: 134, WR55): Palmer is getting some buzz because he could be Herbert’s main target in 2024, but I don’t buy it. While I am optimistic that Herbert will far outperform his ADP, I believe he’ll do so by involving a lot of pass catchers without necessarily elevating anyone to stardom. WRs are different from RBs; often, when injury strikes, or established players depart, the next man up in the RB room can be assigned the vacated work and reasonable expectations can be made for how that next guy will do. Pass catching roles are more fickle, and the work of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams can’t just be passed on to Palmer. Unlike a RB who is being handed the ball, Palmer’s still got to get open, and he hasn’t shown he’s elite at that.

Throughout his three years, Palmer has had chances to establish himself as a real guy, and all he’s been able to do is pop here and there without consistency. He has topped out at 72 catches and 769 yards in the NFL, with four touchdowns his rookie year as a career-high. His numbers in 2024 should be career-highs across the board due to the vacated targets in this offense, but not to the extent that he becomes a must-play WR2 or even FLEX. He’s more of a FLEX option with additional value on heavy bye weeks. There may be value here, but I’m unenthused

Favorite Deep Sleeper

Kimani Vidal, RB (ADP: 153, RB60): Vidal looms as a threat to both of these former Ravens RBs, as he possesses elusiveness, which both Edwards and Dobbins lack, a ton of college production – 1,661 yards, 14 rushing touchdowns as a senior at Troy – and a much cleaner and shorter history of injuries. I would expect the veterans to get their chance to establish themselves before Vidal gets significant work, but he’s a better receiver already than either Edwards or Dobbins, so he could work his way onto the field early in that capacity and impress. If my life was on the line, I’d pick Dobbins to be the most valuable Chargers RB for fantasy, but Vidal could have a lot of value as the season wears on.

Deep Cuts (150 & later).

Quentin Johnston, WR (ADP: 179, WR71): Johnston was a major bust last season, and while some will make the argument that the departures of Allen and Williams and Austin Ekeler free up too many targets for him not to improve, I’m completely out. Johnston ranked in the 1st – that’s right, 1st! – percentile against both man and zone and was in the 2nd percentile against press despite his prototype X receiver size. Johnston entered the league as a raw prospect, but when forced to sink or swim he sank like he weighed thousands of pounds. An insane 27% of his routes were nines, likely because he simply couldn’t effectively run many others and get open, and he was only successful on 44% of those nine routes. He also ran a lot of slants (18.8%) and barely cracked a 70% success rate. He finished 2023 with 38 receptions, 431 yards and two scores despite an 80+% snap rate for the final 10 games of the year. Simply put, if you draft him as a lottery ticket, you’re basing that solely on his draft capital.

D.J. Chark Jr., WR (ADP: 268, WR89): Chark is a strikingly similar player to Johnston, just with a bit of NFL level success to his name. I wouldn’t draft either player because their main value is streaking down the field and making difficult catches, not a recipe for fantasy success, but if you’re intent on scooping up Herbert’s deep threat then I’d draft Chark ahead of Johnston.

Brenden Rice, WR (ADP: 292, WR102): Rice, the son of arguably the greatest football player ever, Jerry Rice, was picked up in the 7th round by the Chargers but may actually find his way on the field. Reception Perception noted some concerns about his ability to contribute a bunch right away because of how he was used at USC, but with players like Johnston and Chark in the receiver room, they may need Rice to grow up fast.

He certainly wasn’t a PPR darling for the Trojans, never cracking 50 receptions in any of his four NCAA campaigns with USC or Colorado before that, but he was a monster down the field. He averaged 17.6 yards per reception as a senior, and scored 12 touchdowns on just 45 catches, a 26% TD rate. Obviously that’s not a sustainable number in the NFL, particularly for a seventh-round pick, but he was solid on slants and curl routes, and showed some zone-beating chops that might allow him to man the slot right away, free up McConkey to be at the flanker, and push Palmer into that X role. It’s a long shot, but it’s not impossible considering how beatable Chark and Johnston are for playing time.

Will Dissly, TE (ADP: 323, TE43): Dissly has been around a while, and never done much. I’m not excited about him, but he figures to be on the field a bunch and with a totally unclear pecking order for targets from one of the NFL’s finest passers, he should be mentioned.

Donald Parham Jr.. TE (ADP: N/A): Parham’s got incredible size at the TE position, and has shown he can score touchdowns even with limited work. He’s never proven to be a full-field threat, but he warrants a look as a potential TD maven in this offense now that the WR corps is in shambles. There’s Juwan Johnson-esque potential here as a streaming option who is TD or bust.