2024 Team Previews: Denver Broncos

Denver Broncos 2024 Preview

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

Javonte Williams, RB (ADP: 91, RB33): Williams returned faster than anyone predicted last season, and while his recovery time was impressive, his play on the field was less so. After a rookie season had us thirsting for what could be, his third NFL season was a real wet blanket as he turned in just 774 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, salvaging some value with 228 receiving yards and two scores on 47 receptions. Sean Payton was brought to this team as an offensive guru, but there’s only so much a coach can do with subpar talent, and Williams was clearly not his old self, and received little help from Denver’s green receiving options and horrible QB play.

Hopefully now that he is further removed from injury he can flash more of his old self, but the weak supporting cast is still an issue, and the QB play could be downgraded from last season depending on which of the three shaky options the Broncos have wins in training camp. Williams should be a volume-based value at this ADP, but that’s if he commands the lion’s share of the work. I’d bet he does, but there are some hungry young backs that could torpedo his stock.

Courtland Sutton, WR (ADP: 113, WR47): Sutton had one of the most weirdly productive fantasy seasons I’ve ever seen in 2023, and it’s one I really would not bet on being repeated in 2024. Sutton led the team in targets (90), receptions (59), yards (772) and touchdowns (10), and only one of those numbers is good. The receptions and yardage made sense for him, as he is a downfield threat with an average depth of target (ADOT) of 11.8, which doesn’t lend itself to full-PPR stardom. He’s also always been a contested catch monster, so long plays and touchdowns are how he butters his bread. But even with that in mind, his 2023 campaign was extreme.

Sutton never had a 100-yard game, and in the 15 games in which he played significant snaps, he caught four or fewer passes in 10 of them, with 65 or fewer yards nine times. In five of the games in which he scored, he came in under 60 receiving yards too, so even though he was finding the end zone on a nearly weekly basis, he still wasn’t performing as a fantasy superstar. And all this was with Russell Wilson at QB, who, while playing a stripped down game for a coach who couldn’t wait to Jazzy Jeff him off the team, did allow him to chuck the ball down the field at Sutton a bunch. Rookie Bo Nix is expected to start, and while he’s no noodle arm, Payton is going to want to run a vastly different offense which probably means less chucking. The ADP for sure builds in the inherent problems with Sutton this year, so I don’t mind the ADP actually, but even here it’s just not a high-ceiling choice.

Fantasy Relevant (120-150 ADP)

Favorite Deep Sleeper

**Jaleel McLaughlin, RB (ADP: 164, RB50): McLaughlin is a teeny tiny back who has no chance of a three-down role in this league, but he could be one of the better fantasy-relevant efficiency kings like De’Von Achane in Miami or Keaton Mitchell in Baltimore if the coaches trust him enough. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry last season and scored three total touchdowns on just 112 opportunities and was easily Denver’s most electric skill player. McLaughlin graded out as Denver’s best RB by far in 2023, earning an 86.2 overall mark that would place him sixth in the league if ignoring snap minimums. That doesn’t mean McLaughlin needs to get 18 touches per game, because he’d break, but he never saw double-digit carries even once last season, and he topped 60 yards from scrimmage every time he was given 10+ opportunities.

McLaughlin should see more work than he did as a rookie, because Payton is no dummy and he’s a playmaker on a team that is desperate for them, so I can buy him as an upside play in a given week. At this ADP he can’t do any harm, and there’s a non-zero chance he’s used enough that he becomes playable on a weekly basis

Deep Cuts (150 & later)

Troy Franklin, WR (ADP: 208, WR72): Franklin has some buzz as a possible major contributor as a rookie, and while I’m not sure I buy it, the opportunity should be there for him to play a lot right away. Franklin’s numbers at Oregon were wild – 81 receptions, 1,383 yards, 14 TDs – and he put them up catching balls from Bo Nix, who will look to foster the chemistry even more as they stick together. The issue I see is that he was lined up at X receiver for the majority of the time for the Ducks, and that role is going to belong to Sutton, increasing Franklin’s learning curve at the pro level.

There’s reason to think he’ll stick as a flanker. He beat man at a 70.3% clip, but he truly shined vs. zone – 82.4% success, 72nd percentile – and that makes me want to see him in the slot and off the line because of how much he struggled to beat press. I like the opportunity for him in Denver, but the combination of learning a new role, a rookie QB, and a game with holes in it for an offense I expect to be pretty low scoring makes me want to look elsewhere for upside late.

Marvin Mims Jr., WR (ADP: 225, WR77): Mims was the hyped rookie last season expected to demand targets as a deep threat for Russell Wilson, and he was a big fat flop. After finishing 2ith just 22 catches, 377 yards and one score he’s now an afterthought, especially since they added Franklin to do a lot of Mims stuff. He was drafted to be a deep threat, and his 15.1 yard ADOT proved that’s really all they thought he could do. I am not sure why that changes in 2024, and, if anything, he could find himself just not on the field at all with Patrick back and Franklin healthy. The Broncos might be the most depressing team for fantasy in the NFL.

Bo Nix, QB (ADP: 173, QB26): I may not be a fan of Nix as a player, but Payton is, and he knows more about football than most. While Nix’s physical tools didn’t wow me, his production did. Nix threw for 4,508 yards and 45 touchdowns as a super senior, while only throwing a miniscule three INTs. To me, Nix can be a quality game manager out of the gate, which is good news for the Broncos’ skill guys in that he should be able to extend drives and create opportunity. The downside is that on his own, he’s not an option for fantasy managers outside of two-QB leagues and maybe SuperFlex.

Audric Estime, RB (ADP: 219, RB63): Estime, a bruiser out of Notre Dame, can certainly be a fantasy factor this season. Williams will get the first crack, but if he’s just washed, it’ll be Estime taking over the work and he’s built to handle a lot. He poured it on at Notre Dame, rushing for 1,341 yards and17 touchdowns. It is a crowded room, but I’d happily bet on Estime over veteran Samaje Perine, who we’ve seen enough of in the NFL to know isn’t anything more than real-life depth. Estime may end up not being a “guy,” but he still has the potential to turn into that.

Samaje Perine, RB (ADP: 255, RB70): Perine is okay at a lot of things, and he’s a good player for a team to have. Just not a fantasy team. Perine has not cracked 700 yards from scrimmage since his rookie campaign, and we’re now entering Year 8 of his career. He can fill in capably in a pinch, but he’s never been a player teams deemed fit to start, and because of that he’ll always be the least-used part of a committee. Not a fantasy option.

Josh Reynolds, WR (ADP: 308, WR101): Like Perine, Reynolds is a nice player who adds to a team in real life, but just doesn’t have the goods to be a legit fantasy option. He wasn’t when he was on great offenses in Los Angeles and Detroit, and he’s certainly not now with Nix or Jarrett Stidham throwing the passes.

Tim Patrick, WR (ADP: N/A): We haven’t seen Patrick since 2021 due to a torn ACL in 2022 and a torn Achilles in 2023, but he’s making a go of it again in a receiving room that’s there for the taking. At his best, Patrick was being pushed by yours truly as an underrated option who was on par with Sutton and then-Bronco Jerry Jeudy as a player, but going way after them in drafts. Now, he’s a free dart throw, and he’s once again in a receiver room without a clear alpha beyond Sutton, who is the full time X receiver.

Volume won’t be his friend, as this will be a run-heavy attack with a rookie at the helm, but if his body isn’t shot from the injuries I can see him being a helpful depth piece in very deep leagues.