Veteran Values: Hollywood Brown's Price is Dropping Just as His Value Is Going Up

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown was, once upon a time, viewed as a true WR1 for the Ravens and then Cardinals, and was believed to be a possible fantasy WR1 by many a manager. Based on his current ADP of No. 66 overall (WR36), that’s not how he’s viewed anymore. Now he’s on the fringe of every-week WR3 territory, and while I’ve believed him to be overdrafted in the past, he now presents interesting value.

Brown is entering Year 6 of his career, so I’m also in the camp of believing he’s never going to be a fantasy WR1. If you think the ceiling’s that high, we are not the same. But situation matters, and this is by far the best passing offense he’s been a part of. And his skillset is an ideal addition to this Chiefs offense, which was starving for playmakers at the WR position.

Brown is going to walk right into this offense and toggle between the slot and flanker; ideally, he’d be in the slot, both because of his skills and how this offense uses the slot receiver. Since Tyreek Hill was traded, they’ve pieced together WR production in the aggregate, spreading the ball around and making it hard to identify a real fantasy asset beyond TE Travis Kelce. But in 2022, we saw Juju Smith-Schuster briefly revive his fantasy relevance by leading KC receivers in targets (101) and receptions (78), trailing only Kelce in both categories. That trend continued in 2023, with breakout rookie Rashee Rice leading all receivers in targets (102) and receptions (79) while operating mainly from the slot. The Chiefs could decide to keep Rice in the slot, as he showed limitations beyond that role, but he’s also facing a possible suspension to begin the year, leaving the door open for Brown to man the role in Rice’s absence and prove that he should stay in it even when Rice returns.

Brown’s a different player than Rice, but he’s very effective. Brown has posted an 80%+ success rate vs. zone coverage in every year but 2023, a season in which Reception Perception notes he only took 16.4% of his snaps from the slot. And even last year, it was a 78.8% mark. Brown also dominates on posts, digs, curls and outs, and struggles some on nines, corners and slants. Naturally, his most-run routes were slants (23.8%) and nines (19.7%). Brown’s joining a team with some of the best offensive coaching in the NFL, and he’ll be catching passes from Patrick Mahomes, who is on track to become maybe the best QB in NFL history. KC drafted rookie Xavier Worthy to take the top off defenses; even though Brown has the raw speed to do it in theory, he’s much more of a technician than deep threat.

Brown is bringing even more of a complete package than Smith-Schuster did, when he was an integral part of a Super Bowl offense. Brown adds refinement to a receiving corps that’s heavy on raw physical talent with Worthy and Rice. Barring injury, it’d be a shock if he doesn’t lead receivers in targets and catches, and he could even flirt with leading the team if Kelce begins to show his age. Don’t forget, he’s going to be 35 when Week 1 rolls around, the same age as Rob Gronkowski, who has retired twice and last played in 2021. At worst, Brown’s ADP should serve as a floor, while his ceiling could be a high-end WR2. 100-110 targets is a given for him in this offense, with the upside for more, and he’s got more half and full-PPR upside than ever before with other burners around him that keep him from being shoehorned into low-success rate routes. Brown’s crossed into the “unexciting veteran” realm of WRs, something I’ve taken to calling the “Brandin Cooks zone.” But for a long time Cooks was a gem in that role, annual value due to poor perception. That’s where Brown now resides, and I’ll snap him up if I can.