Players I Can't Quit: Odell Beckham Jr. Can Be An Efficiency King In Miami

We discussed here about how difficult it is for me to quit on George Kittle, because of how talented and explosive he can be, and how certain metrics tell a story of the greater potential he possesses than what his stats sometimes show. Odell Beckham Jr. has many of these qualities as well, although his overall numbers for a long time have depressed his ADP to a point where he’s often going undrafted.

Of course, Beckham’s days as a superstar are long gone. He hasn’t played a full season since 2019, he’s suffered two torn ACLs since 2020, and he hasn’t surpassed 45 receptions since 2019 either. It’s been a long, long time since he was a truly impactful fantasy asset. But his peak seasons and highlights are intoxicating, and there are real signs that he still has the ability to be a meaningful fantasy option for winning rosters.

The last time we had charting data for him from Reception Perception was for his 2021 season, in which he was traded during the year to the Rams after plodding through six games with the Browns. He joined a pretty loaded offense and contributed in a big way, catching 25 passes, for 305 yards and five touchdowns across eight games (seven starts). That season he was still beating man at a 72.3% clip (71st percentile), zone at an 81.5% clip (76th percentile) and he was in the 81st percentile of beating press coverage (76.4%). These marks were, of course, down from his peak when he was the top receiver in the sport, but still very much made him a threat.

He missed all of 2022 after his second torn ACL, and latched on with Baltimore last season. With a new offensive coordinator in the mix, the Ravens were expected to rely more heavily on Lamar Jackson’s passing, and Beckham figured to be a consistent cog in those efforts, especially since Jackson had recruited him personally. Beckham’s final stats were underwhelming – 35 receptions, 565 yards, three touchdowns – but they also gave hope of what he can be in 2024.

Beckham set some career highs in 2024: his 16.1 yards per catch were the highest every, his average depth of target (ADOT) was 13.9 yards, and his 4.4 yards after the catch per reception matched a career-high set in 2018 (the first season this data is available). He was ranked as PFF’s No. 32 receiver. While he is no longer a consistent No. 1 target, what he morphed into in Baltimore could become lethal in Miami.

In 2023, the Dolphins scored the second-most points in the league, gained the most total yards in the NFL, were second in yards per play (6.5), and second in net yards per pass attempt (7.6). They did all this while attempting only the 20th-most pass attempts, which may seem surprising until you look at their weaponry. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and RB De’Von Achane are all efficiency merchants, and both Hill and Waddle were actually less efficient than Beckham was in Baltimore. You simply cannot be as efficient as Beckham was if you’re washed, and he’s joining an offense in which he’s, at best, the fourth option if not the fifth (depends on how you feel about RB Raheem Mostert). He won’t be peppered with targets, but he’s also going to be drawing a secondary’s No. 3 corner, and likely won’t be getting double-teamed ever. In the red zone, he will become an absolute nightmare matchup, and we could see him rack up TDs against overmatched DBs regularly. That became his role in Los Angeles when he notched his five scores in eight games, and two TDs during their Super Bowl run. Beckham caught five passes just twice in 2023, but found ways to be relevant without the volume. He caught one pass in Week 10 vs. Cleveland, but it was a 40-yard touchdown. He caught four passes vs. the Bengals in Week 11, but racked up 116 yards, and had another four-catch performance in Week 14 vs. the Rams in which he posted 97 yards and a TD.

There will be weeks in Miami when the big dogs are doing most of the work, but Beckham will always be a big play threat for this offense when he’s out there running a route. For a player going at pick No. 240, there’s more upside than most.