Leap to Elite: Curtis Samuel Could Be The Rare Year 9 Breakout

The Buffalo Bills made a decision that shocked many when they traded their star WR, Stefon Diggs, within the conference this offseason. On paper, the loss is a tremendous one, but Buffalo addressed the position in the draft with a first round rookie receiver in Keon Coleman, as well as an under the radar free agent pickup, Curtis Samuel. Samuel has been around a while now, so he isn’t striking many as a critical addition, but he could quietly be a candidate for a massive leap in 2024.

Samuel is entering his eighth season, which is a really long time to not have broken out yet. The odds are against him being a fantasy star, but there are signs that point to that capability, and Samuel has never been given a chance as “the guy” anywhere he’s been. Samuel’s only topped 100 targets once, in 2019 when he finished with a career-best six touchdowns. In the last two seasons he’s put up nearly identical lines of around 60-65 receptions, 600-650 yards, and five total touchdowns. As a player who has never surpassed 1,000 receiving yards or even really sniffed it, it’s fair to assume this is who he is. But Samuel has always been behind another WR1 or stuffed into a box as a gadget player. He can do those things for sure – we’ll touch on that in a bit – but Samuel has a higher ceiling.

Is he “the guy” for Buffalo this year? Well he’s not going to demand a target share like Diggs did (160 targets in 2023), but it’s fair to project him as the Bills’ target leader. He’s had the most success of any pass-catcher on the Bills roster as of this writing, and walks into an offense that, between Diggs and Gabe Davis’ departures, has vacated 241 targets. If healthy, I’d expect Samuel to blow past his career-high 105 targets, and do so with an elite QB throwing him the football. Samuel’s versatility also makes him the focal point of what the Bills’ passing attack can do. Coleman looks the part of a hulking outside receiver and spent the vast majority of his college snaps out there, but Reception Perception has noted flaws in his game that could spell trouble out there at the NFL level. Maybe the Bills don’t share those concerns, and will leave Coleman out there while Samuel mans the slot or the flanker spot. Or, the Bills get creative and try to deploy Coleman as a big slot guy, pushing Samuel into the X spot that Davis has left open. If so, Samuel’s a proven threat out there, fileting man coverage at a 75.4% clip in 2023, good for the 82nd percentile in the league. Samuel was adequate to above-average on every route except for posts last year, and he was particularly lethal on curls, which made up nearly 20% of his routes run. Samuel looks the part of a first down machine, making him a strong value target in half and full-PPR formats.

Finally, he has the chops to be a Deebo Samuel-esque dual threat player. Washington didn’t activate that last year, but in 2022 he rushed 38 times for 187 yards and a touchdown. He’s going to a Bills offense that has, at times, lacked trust in James Cook as a leading man in the backfield and around the goal line, but Samuel’s Swiss Army knife nature could open up opportunities to bolster his production.

Samuel’s production has been pretty consistent in his career, but his reputation doesn’t quite match up with what he actually did on the field in 2023, and that’s a good thing for smarter managers such as ourselves. You may see just 91 targets last year with middling yardage and touchdown numbers, but I see a player who was second on the Commanders in targets only to Terry McLaurin, and a player who outplayed a standout 2022 rookie in Jahan Dotson, earning more looks and producing more per catch than him. Samuel is itching for a chance to be featured, and in Buffalo he will. We don’t have reliable ADP data yet, but it would be a surprise to me if Samuel did not outperform whatever his ADP ends up being.