Fantasy Football 2024 Rookie Rankings: Nos. 5-1

 Today, we’ll rank the Top 5 rookies for the 2024 fantasy football season. You can check out Nos. 10-6 here, and the Honorable Mentions here. Remember, these are ranked for this upcoming season, not for dynasty. Without further ado…

No. 5 Rome Odunze, WR, Bears (Round 1, Pick No. 9)

Odunze is actually my favorite receiver in this entire draft class, which is a particularly loaded group. The numbers he posted at Washington last year en route to a National Championship game appearance are unassailable – 92 receptions, 1,640 yards, 13 TDs – and when those with better eyes than me break down his game he’s essentially a flawless prospect. His route success tree on Reception Perception is completely green, and his success rates vs. man (76.2%) and zone (83.5%) were among the highest in the country. This man is a machine in terms of getting open, but in the rare instances when he is covered, he won contested catch opportunities at an absurd 88.9% rate.

So why is he only No. 5? Well, it’s because he will be catching passes from a rookie QB – an incredible rookie for whom I have high expectations, but still a rookie – and he has some real elite competition for targets in D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen, as well as an ascending TE in Cole Kmet. Of course, this could also mean Odunze gets to work one-on-one consistently and shred defenders and be the No. 1 rookie of 2024. I wouldn’t rule it out, but with that level of veteran talent surrounding him, it’s simply a matter of me betting that he gets a smaller slice of the offensive pie than the peers on this list ahead of him.

No. 4 Jonathon Brooks, RB, Panthers (Round 2, Pick No. 46)

Brooks was the first RB off the board, and while he hasn’t landed in an offense that excited anyone in 2023, he’s certainly arrived at a destination where volume will not be an issue. Brooks finally got to be the leader of the backfield last season and turned 187 carries into 1,139 yards and 10 TDs. He also flashed some receiving ability, catching 25 passes for 286 yards and a score. Brooks is not on the level of Bijan Robinson last season, or Breece Hall and Jahmyr Gibbs the year before, but volume is king, and he will lead the Panthers in touches by a large margin in 2024. Rookie RBs are major contributors every season, and this year’s crop isn’t elite, so volume becomes even more important.

It’s worth noting that Brooks is coming off a torn ACL, so his rise to bell cow could be a bit slow out of the gate. But for as competent as Chuba Hubbard was in 2023, this isn’t going to be his show once Brooks is a full go, and Brooks will be a difference maker in fantasy down the stretch.

No. 3 Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jaguars (Round 1, Pick No. 23)

Thomas Jr. has hung around the fringes of the elite 2024 WR class discussion while the Holy Trinity of Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze were adored, and after landing in Jacksonville it’s conceivable that he has the most production of the group. Thomas doesn’t have as much versatility as the other three, which does factor into how I’m projecting him forward this season, but he’s a spectacular prospect in a situation that’s just right.

He didn’t handle the level of volume that Nabers, his teammate, did at LSU but he crushed it on efficiency. Thomas Jr. racked up 1,177 yards on just 68 catches and scored 17 touchdowns. Thomas Jr. will be an outside receiver and likely not move around much, but knowing what he’s going to do doesn’t matter much when you can’t stop it. 17.2% of his routes were nines in 2023, and he posted an insane 72% success rate on them. With a 4.33 40-yard dash time, that checks out. His speed also makes him automatic on curl routes, which he succeeded on nearly 90% of the time.

He isn’t on the level of the elite three as a route runner, and he does not have the diversity they showed in their route trees, but he’s going to be a favorite of Trevor Lawrence this season in an offense where Calvin Ridley just vacated 136 targets. Christian Kirk may lead the Jags in targets, but Thomas Jr. is going to be the primary option right away, and because of that I believe he’ll outpace Odunze in Year 1.

No. 2 Malik Nabers, WR, Giants (Round 1, Pick No. 6)

Nabers played a ton of slot at LSU, and could well do that for the Giants as he’s very versatile, but I’m excited for Nabers because of what I think he can do on the outside. He actually averaged 17.9 yards per catch, slightly more than Thomas Jr. who was an outside, downfield specialist, and caught 89 passes on the year for almost 1,600 yards and 14 TDs. The Giants offense has been dying for a legitimate WR1 for years now, and in Nabers they finally have it. Nabers might not be quite as crisp a route runner as Odunze, or even guys like Ricky Pearsall or Ladd McConkey, but he’s plenty good. And while he lined up in the slot half the time in 2023, Nabers obliterated man coverage at a 74.1% rate and defeated press coverage 72.1% of the time.

With Big Blue, he’s entering an offensive ecosystem led by Brian Daboll, who can get the most out of the pieces he has. Wan’Dale Robinson is a small receiver on whom high draft capital was spent, and he really can’t be deployed effectively outside the slot, leaving Nabers to be either the flanker or the X. He can, and will, do both for the G-Men, but when he’s out at flanker he’ll be able to torture defenses at all levels of the field, because he’s so freaking fast. He’s incredibly dominant on slants and digs, but then also posted a 65% win rate on nines. Nabers is just a devastating player who is going to give defensive coordinators nightmares.

No. 1 Marvin Harrison Jr., Cardinals (Round 1, Pick No. 4)

A very popular take that permeated pre draft season was that Harrison was the most “NFL ready” receiver and Nabers had the “highest ceiling.” Maybe, but Harrison Jr.’s ceiling is extremely damn high. Harrison put up a 67-catch, 1,211-yard, 14 TD season for Ohio State and he did so with far lesser QB play than Nabers had. Harrison is everything you want in a WR1. He’s massive (6’3, 209 lbs), fast, has the eye-popping collegiate numbers you want to see, and he’s going to an offense that’ll feed him from Day 1.

Harrison’s going to lead the team in targets by a mile this year, catching passes from Kyler Murray, a pretty prolific thrower of the football, who is now more than a full year removed from blowing out his knee. Murray being fully mobile again will increase the big chunk plays Harrison can make when his QB is scooting around and buying time. Harrison’s size enables him to compete with any physical outside corner and win contested catch situations, but he’s also a premier zone beater, which allows him to operate like a colossus out of the slot vs. smaller nickelbacks. Barring injury, it’s almost inconceivable that Harrison won’t be a dominant receiver right away, and that’s why he is my No. 1 rookie of 2024.