Situational Superstars: Treylon Burks Can Be A WR2 Without Getting Much Better

Treylon Burks was drafted last season as a clear attempt at replacing A.J. Brown, whom the Titans shipped off to the Eagles rather than give big money to. While his rookie year production did not resemble anything A.J. Brown gave this team, there are reasons to remain optimistic about Burks’ future. One of the reasons is that he’s the clear No. 1 option for this passing offense, and should see a lot of volume, making him a situational superstar.

Let’s get the ugly out of the way. Burks played in just 11 games last season, amassing 33 receptions, 444 yards and a single touchdown while dealing with injuries, and preseason worries that he was not in shape. Throughout the season he only had one game with more than four receptions, in Week 11 when he caught seven passes for 111 yards vs. the Packers. He barely cracked Football Outsiders’ Top 60 WR DVOA with his mark of -6.7%, and he was just 65th in Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) with only 25. Simply put, he was overmatched in trying to replace Brown, and just because he resembled Brown physically, we had too high of expectations.

The folks at Reception Perception helpfully explained a big reason why he was so overmatched. To put it simply, coming out of college he was best suited for a big man slot receiver role where he could overpower smaller corners with his size and utilize his yards after contact skills. Instead,  he was deployed as an outside receiver, and he struggled badly to beat man and press coverage on the outside due to an unrefined route tree. His most frequent route was the nine, but he was only successful at a 52.5% clip, whereas he was winning slant routes at an 86.5% rate. While he did struggle, that experience running No. 1 man routes should be invaluable, because he’s the only show in town.

Tennessee threw the third-fewest passes in the NFL last season, so Burks at first might not seem to be a good volume play. But he’s the obvious top target entering 2023, and Tennessee’s top two most targeted players, WR Robert Woods and TE Austin Hooper, are both gone vacating 151 targets. A lot of those are going to go Burks’ way, and now he has experience doing what is needed. Another important aspect of these departures, particularly Woods, is that Burks will now have to run more short and intermediate routes; we can expect the 22.3% allocation of routes that were nines to drop, because he’s going to be called upon to keep the chains moving. This is good news, as it should give him a chance to use his physicality more rather than trying to gain separation. Burks succeeded on 75% of his contested catch situations, so Ryan Tannehill and Will Levis should feel comfortable trusting him in close quarters, as well as around the end zone where his TD numbers should positively regress.

Burks ranked inside PFF’s Top 30 last year, so there were definitely parts of his game to like. He was thrust into a big time role before he was ready, and learned on the job while dealing with injury and negative coverage. Now, Burks is more seasoned, and he’s about to be heavily relied upon. Even if he’s not ready to be as refined or prolific as other teams’ No. 1 receivers, his competition for target share is non-existent. Burks can very easily be a WR2 for fantasy teams without any massive leap in his own level of play, purely off his situation. While Tennessee doesn’t have a big passing pie, Burks is about to have a massive slice.