Situational Superstars: James Conner Primed to Be An Underrated Workhorse
Opportunity is king. It’s something every fantasy manager is guided by on draft day, and during the season. When we lose sight of that fact, we get into trouble. Talent tantalizes, but more often than not, we win by choosing opportunity, even if the players we’re evaluating don’t make us excited when we watch them. “Situational superstars” are players who are either non-elite talents, or players who have yet to post elite production who have a chance to elevate their production based on being the only show in town on their teams. Our first situational superstar is Cardinals RB James Conner.
We have seen Conner be an elite fantasy producer before, first in 2018 during Le’Veon Bell’s ill-fated holdout in Pittsburgh, and then in 2021 when he scored 18 total touchdowns for Arizona. Last season he likely burned managers because he cost elevated draft capital, and really took his time finding his stride. He finished with underwhelming total numbers – 782 rushing yards, 1,082 yards from scrimmage, eight touchdowns – but he was mired in a broken offense. While the touchdown total dropped by 10, Conner averaged more yards per carry (4.3 vs. 3.7), more rushing yards per game (60.2 vs. 50.1), caught 11 more passes and drew 19 more targets despite playing in fewer games. Conner was arguably better in 2022 than he was in 2021, and ironically played his best football with star QB Kyler Murray off the field.
Murray was a disaster in 2022, falling out of favor with fans, coaches and teammates while getting injured, and eventually suffering a season-ending knee injury. And when Murray was out, James Conner became the focal point of the offense and regained his fantasy juice. We saw Conner’s season-long numbers, but check out Weeks 10-17 for him, during which time Murray played just one full game. In those seven games, Conner averaged more than 100 yards from scrimmage per game, averaged 25.4 yards through the air, and scored seven of his eight touchdowns on the year.
Conner has never been a hyper-efficient back, even when he broke out with the Steelers, but he’s always produced when given volume. He is about to see a ton of volume this season for a going-nowhere Cardinals team that will likely start the season without Murray, and just released superstar receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Marquise Brown is a capable WR1, and Zach Ertz is still in place, but without Murray at the outset this is going to be a run-first team, and the depth chart beyond Conner is absolutely gross: Keaontay Ingram, Corey Clement, Ty’Son Williams. That backfield is going to belong to Conner for all three downs, all game long, unless he legitimately just needs a breather. He will monopolize almost all the rushing opportunities, even when Murray does return, as he’s likely to throttle back on the running as he returns from a serious knee injury.
Everything is in place for Conner in his age-28 season to be one of the highest-volume players in football. So while he may not offer jaw-dropping highlights or long TDs, he’s going to put up RB1-adjacent numbers, get a ton of scoring opportunities, and, most importantly, be consistent on a weekly basis. Do not undervalue him come Draft Day.