On The Move: Breaking Down Brandin Cooks on the Cowboys
Brandin Cooks has joined the Dallas Cowboys, but after an age 29 season in which his reliable 1,000+ yards and sixish touchdowns didn’t show up, is he worth an investment as he turns 30 and joins his fifth team?
Prior to 2022, Cooks had been one of the most bankable assets at the WR position in fantasy, putting up 1,000+ yards in six of eight seasons. Cooks has benefitted a great deal from playing with elite QBs like Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson, but he’s also put up big numbers with Jared Goff and a combo of Davis Mills and Tyrod Taylor in 2021. His production dropped significantly last season, and while his age might be a factor, Cooks had a lot working against him. Mills took a step back from a solid rookie season, grading as PFF’s No. 32 QB on the season. Cooks caught passes from Mills, Kyle Allen and Jeff Driskel last year, and those three QBs combined to helm the NFL’s second-worst offense per Football Outsiders’ Weighted DVOA metric (-30.2%) and the second worst pass DVOA (-21.3%). Cooks’ season sure was disappointing, but it cannot be separated from the abysmal QB play and utter lack of options in the passing game surrounding him.
Yes, Cooks will turn 30 this season, but that is not necessarily a magic number for WRs. Cooks isn’t a particularly injury-prone player, so him entering a better offensive environment should refresh his fantasy outlook. Dak Prescott was somewhat disappointing last season, but he still represents a massive upgrade on Houston’s disastrous QB room, and he also possesses Top 5 ceiling on a purely statistical level. He’s also joining a WR room that’s headed up by CeeDee Lamb, a bona fide WR1 that relieves pressure on Cooks to lead the way and frees him up to be more of a downfield threat, where he’s excelled the most.
On top of the QB improvement, and the more suitable role as a high-end WR2 behind Lamb, Dallas has a plethora of targets for Cooks to soak up. Dalton Schultz left this offseason, ironically for the Texans, but he was Dallas’ second-most targeted pass catcher in each of the past two seasons. Schultz was second on the team with 89 targets last year, and tied Amari Cooper in 2021 with 104. Noah Brown, Dallas’ third-most targeted pass-catcher in 2022 with 79 targets also bolted for Houston, so that’s 163 targets vacated between Schultz and Brown that are available for Cooks. So we have a large target share available, a big upgrade at QB, and what should be a more pass-heavy approach as well. They had a Top 10 Rushing DVOA in 2022, and were just 19th in the NFL in pass attempts, but they did let Ezekiel Elliott go this offseason, and have Tony Pollard coming off a big injury. This is a team that should throw more than they did last season, considering they were sixth in pass attempts in 2021.
To sum it up, Cooks is a largely consistent contributor who at age 30 should have plenty left in the tank. He’s defied the conventional wisdom that it’s generally bad for WRs to switch teams, as he’s put up high-quality fantasy seasons for five teams and even more quarterbacks. He’s coming off a down year, and he’s no longer a young, exciting bet, so Cooks should be a very nice value in drafts this season. Don’t forget about him, because he could deliver rock solid WR2 production at a WR3 cost.