On The Move: Breaking Down David Montgomery To The Lions
The Detroit Lions signed David Montgomery this offseason, much to the chagrin of D’Andre Swift backers and dynasty league managers everywhere. After watching Jamaal Williams score an NFL-best 17 rushing touchdowns last season, his departure should’ve been a red carpet to Swift’s ascendance. Montgomery will certainly cap Swift’s ceiling again, but is he still a rock-solid RB2 like he’s been in Chicago?
Montgomery’s been a polarizing guy for a hot minute in fantasy football because, well, people don’t seem to think he is all that good. The phrase “volume is king” exists for a reason, and Montgomery epitomizes it. In four NFL seasons Montgomery has maxed out at 4.3 yards per carry, and only hit 1,000 yards in a season once. The other three years he was below the 900-yard mark, and he’s been under four yards per carry twice. And yet, he remained relevant because until last year he averaged at least 15 rushing attempts per game. Montgomery has never had a season with fewer than six total touchdowns, and he’s never failed to top 1,000 yards from scrimmage. Montgomery has been the centerpiece of the Bears offense for his entire career, and while that’s led to largely unsuccessful offenses, it’s also allowed him to be fantasy relevant for his whole career, whether we like it or not.
Montgomery is now taking this repertoire to Detroit, which was the fifth-best offense in football last year per Football Outsiders’ Weighted DVOA metric. He’s presumably stepping into a role that netted Williams 17 touchdowns. But here’s the hitch – he’s not as good as Williams was last year. Williams was a Top 30 back per PFF last year, and his grade was dragged down by a very poor receiving grade (39.7). Montgomery checked in as PFF’s 44th-best back, and he will be competing with D’Andre Swift, who was inside PFF’s Top 20. Swift battled injuries last season that limited his availability and created more opportunities than expected for Williams, who capitalized. Swift has been injured consistently throughout his career, but if he can stay healthier, the 303 opportunities (carries + targets) will shrink since Swift is a far superior playmaker. The Lions clearly don’t believe Swift can handle a full three-down workload, but they will still likely rely on him for 12-15 touches per game. That significantly eats into the volume Montgomery needs to be consistently effective for fantasy managers, and transforms him into a TD-dependent option. And while Montgomery has shown he’s adept at punching it into the end zone, Swift has been able to score seven or more touchdowns in each of his first three seasons on fewer opportunities and while missing time due to injury.
The Lions’ offense is much better than Chicago’s but that’s a double-edged sword for Montgomery, who will have much stiffer competition for touches, and be playing in a much more pass-heavy scheme. He’s inefficient, and with less volume, he will be reliant on touchdowns while competing with an overall better player who is also even better at that specific skill. Montgomery could very well be a bye week/emergency play option, but his ADP won’t reflect that with lots of managers just projecting Jamaal Williams’ performance onto him. Montgomery is someone I’m likely to avoid on draft day unless Swift is injured during the preseason.