Jonathan Taylor Fantasy Autopsy: What Killed His Season, and Where Should We Draft Him in 2023?

Jonathan Taylor was the preseason No. 1 pick, but those who felt very lucky to have the chance to draft him spent the 2022 season underwhelmed at best, and potentially on the outside of the playoffs looking in by year’s end. Injuries limited him in 2022, which typically keeps a player from needing a fantasy autopsy, but Taylor was enough of a miss in the games he played to warrant further investigation. Was 2022 a warning sign that 2021 was a peak, or should we continue to view Taylor as an elite RB option?

When a star RB’s production goes down and age isn’t a clear factor – which it is not for the 24-year-old Taylor – we must first look to the offensive line. Indianapolis’ line was not the worst in the NFL, but while PFF graded them as the NFL’s 13th-best run blocking line, Football Outsiders were much harsher on the unit. Per Football Outsiders, they ranked only 22nd in Adjusted Line Yards (4.25), and were the fifth-worst unit in Power Success (58%), defined as “Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer.” This is a critical part of Taylor’s disappointing campaign, as he dropped from 20 touchdowns in 2022 to four last year. Of course, playing in six fewer games is going to produce a pretty meaningful difference in total TD numbers, but when Taylor was playing, he was not finding the end zone with nearly as much frequency as he did last year, or as a rookie.

When on the field, Taylor was much less efficient and effective than he was a year ago. His yards per carry dropped from 5.5 to 4.5, and his rushing yards per game plummeted from 106.5 to 78.3. These are stunning drops in productivity from a guy who, yes, had high usage the previous season, but is also a young player who has been a high-usage back since college. This seems to be a clear product of an underperforming offensive line, and the lack of power success matters a great deal. Taylor had five multi-touchdown games in 2021, and 12 games with at least one score. Of his 20 touchdowns in 2021, 12 of them were rushing touchdowns from five yards or closer. Therefore, it’s no surprise that a struggling line in that aspect contributed to Taylor having a hard time punching it in.

Taylor also suffered from an offense that, overall, just absolutely sucked. As was touched on here when Michael Pittman’s tough season was examined. The trio of Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles was arguably the worst group of QBs in the NFL last season, and they spearheaded the NFL’s worst passing offense by far per Football Outsiders’ Pass DVOA. This of course allows defenses to focus all their attention on stuffing Taylor, and they did. Taylor only topped 100 rushing yards in a game twice, after topping that number 10 times the previous season. That lack of big yardage games was brutal for two reasons: first, without the touchdowns saving the day, you basically spent the first overall pick on a volume-based RB2. Second, the volume was there. He only played in 11 games, but Taylor posted the fifth-most rushing attempts per game (17.6), behind Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb.

The last bit of alarming data about Taylor’s season was his dip in receiving output. As a true three-down back, Taylor thrived not only as an efficient and explosive rusher, he was contributing as a pass-catcher. Taylor went from nine yards per catch in 2021 to 5.1 last season, and lost about 4.5 yards per target. The Colts traded away Nyheim Hines in season, so 2023 should see Taylor’s volume go up, even though his efficiency was not great, and PFF gave him a subpar 57.7 receiving grade.

So should Taylor be the No. 1 overall pick in 2023 drafts? Probably not. But this season probably represents a floor for Taylor, which means if he can remain healthy, he’s still a pretty safe first round pick. We have to be mindful of the Colts’ QB situation; how they address the position will be a major factor for Taylor, Pittman and all the Colts’ skill players. But removing Jeff Saturday from the sideline is a massive plus, and bringing in the architect of Philadelphia’s NFC Championship winning offense, Shane Steichen, to freshen up their attack should be a boon. Taylor clearly suffered from below-average offensive line play, but he is still a young guy who is capable of breaking off big plays. He retained a huge share of the workload, is proven to be capable of handling a lion’s share of carries, and is one of the few sure bets to receive almost all of his team’s goal line opportunity. Don’t worry about Jonathan Taylor.