Elijah Moore Fantasy Autopsy: What Killed His Season, and Where Should We Draft Him in 2023?

Elijah Moore was a popular breakout WR pick entering the 2022 season. Most of us – myself included – predicted a WR2 season at worst, with the potential for more if QB Zach Wilson made a leap. Well, Wilson didn’t, and Moore was much worse than a WR2. Where did it go wrong? Let’s examine. 

In 2021, Moore caught 43 passes for 538 yards and five touchdowns in 11 games while playing on one of the NFL’s lowest-scoring, least explosive offenses with one of the worst QB situations in the league. Entering 2022, Moore supporters were banking on a step forward from Zach Wilson at QB, and improved playmaking around him with rookies Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall joining the team. Instead, Moore took a step backward; he played in five more games this past season than in 2021, and yet caught six fewer passes for 92 fewer yards and four fewer touchdowns. Is Moore to blame? Well he certainly is not blameless. He barely cracked PFFs Top 100 receivers, checking in at No. 99 with a terrible 58.1 receiving grade. He posted a -16% WR DVOA per Football Outsiders, and made himself a distraction at a point when the Jets were winning games by requesting a trade and getting benched for a game.

But…we cannot ignore the Jets’ unusual and unfortunate QB situation. The book is not yet complete on former No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson, but his first two seasons have been nuclear disasters. Wilson has not only been one of the NFL’s worst QBs when he’s played, he has dragged down the production of the pass-catchers around him. Wilson rated as PFF’s No. 39 QB (46.5 grade), and Mike White, while beloved by Jets fans for not being Wilson, wasn’t a great player by any means (61.3). However, even though White, and other passers Moore has played with, aren’t anything close to elite his production with them vs. Wilson is drastically different.

In 2021 Moore produced 25 receptions, 269 yards and one TD in 7 games with Wilson vs. 24 receptions, 336 yards 1 touchdown in four games without him. The numbers look similar until you account for him having played three fewer games without Wilson. Last season, it was no better with the guy who is supposed to be Gang Green’s franchise quarterback. Moore logged eight receptions, 145 yards, one TD in seven games with Wilson and turned in 27 receptions, 299 yards, one TD in just one extra game without him. Of course the numbers without Wilson still are not the breakout stats you want to see from someone who gave inklings of a potential fantasy fixture on winning rosters, but they’re at least suggesting Moore is a playable WR. When Zach Wilson is under center, he essentially murdered Moore’s ability to produce, and in turn makes it impossible for us to divorce Moore’s relatively underwhelming stats through his first two years from Wilson’s presence.

So what we have here is a player who is clearly talented and suffering from some of the worst QB play in football. It seems clear that Wilson will not enter 2023 as the Jets’ starter, but the Jets have not yet figured out who will be at the helm. Aaron Rodgers has said it’s his intention to play for the Jets next season, but that requires a trade, a depletion of draft assets that could help fill out the team, and Green Bay’s cooperation. Bringing Rodgers on board certainly would make Moore a much more appealing lottery pick later in drafts, but anything more than that, regardless of who is the starting QB, is too much risk. As talented as Moore is, we have never seen him deliver even a WR2 campaign, and he's at best the No. 2 option moving forward behind Garrett Wilson. Part of Rodgers’ wish list includes bringing in pass-catchers, and the Jets have already signed Allen Lazard. Moore has talent, and could thrive with Rodgers, but paying any significant draft capital for him is not advisable.

Raimundo Ortiz