2022 Team Previews: New England Patriots

New England Patriots Fantasy Preview 2022

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

**Damien Harris, RB (ADP: 56): Harris is an excellent running back whose ADP is being dragged down by two factors: his backfield is a minefield of talent, and he doesn’t catch passes. Harris hasn’t gotten to 20 receptions in three NFL seasons, and New England currently has multiple options for passing downs. But as a rusher, he’s shown he’s among the cream of the crop, so his ceiling is Nick Chubb-esque. Don’t believe it? He rushed for 4.6 yards per carry in 2021, scored 15 touchdowns on the ground, and graded as PFF’s No. 2 RB behind only Jonathan Taylor. New England is going to have a different offense this year with Josh McDaniels gone, but ultimately Harris’ production speaks for itself. If given the opportunity – he saw 202 carries last year, a career high – he’s going to be a strong RB2 option at worst. Getting him outside the Top 25 (he’s RB26) is a steal.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB (ADP: 97): Stevenson has buzz this year, and many fantasy managers are convinced he will assume control of the Patriots’ backfield. There’s a world where that happens, because Stevenson is extremely talented himself. He averaged 4.6 yards per carry just like Harris last year, and showed receiving chops, catching 14 of his 18 targets. The biggest issue for Stevenson has nothing to do with Stevenson. It’s that Harris is such an elite rusher, it would be nonsensical to reduce his role significantly just to shoehorn Stevenson onto the field. Because of that, they’re likely to share the role, with both players reducing each other’s fantasy ceilings. Harris will lead the backfield in snaps and carries though, and it won’t be a 50/50 split so this ADP is right for Stevenson. He’s a possible league winner if he finds a big workload thanks to injury, but you must build in the risk he never gets that snap %. This ADP does that.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

DeVante Parker, WR (ADP: 138): Parker’s dynamite 2019 season seems more and more like an outlier the further we get away from it, but he still is the WR in this group who has had the best single season and he’s paired with an ascendant QB in Mac Jones. At his best, Parker is winning contested catches and making big plays down the field, stuff that wasn’t meshing well with the Dolphins’ usage of QB Tua Tagovailoa. Jones isn’t a cannon-armed gunslinger either, but it’s been reported in camp that he’s bulkier and gained arm strength. Parker will probably be no better than fine here, but his peak is higher than his other teammates.

Hunter Henry, TE (ADP: 165): Henry is the 18th TE off the board, and that’s a value. He’s never going to be a Top 5 option because he doesn’t pile up enough yardage or get enough targets, but he can be counted on for 600+ receiving yards, and his nine touchdowns in 2021 is repeatable, or close to it. He scored eight touchdowns as a rookie, and in this offense he’s one of the best pass-catchers.

Mac Jones, QB (ADP: 161): Jones is a very good real-life QB, and that was obvious from the get-go when Bill Belichick discarded Cam Newton to give him the keys to the offense. We can expect improvement in Year 2 from his 222.3 yards per game and we know he won’t kill his production with interceptions, but the fantasy ceiling isn’t present yet to rely on him as a weekly QB1. Jones doesn’t have elite receiving options, he won’t have elite passing volume, and he will not run the ball at all. He’s a good passer, but you need to be exceptional to be a fantasy star at QB while barely running at all and Mac Jones isn’t there yet.

Jakobi Meyers, WR (ADP: 181): Ugh, the Patriots’ receiving corps. Meyers has two career touchdowns in three seasons and will probably lead the team in targets. This is why Tom Brady wanted to GTFO. Meyers is a solid player with value to fantasy rosters, especially in full-PPR, but he struggles to find the end zone and plays in an offense that’s going to focus heavily on the running game. He’s the 66th WR off the board, so there’s little risk, but I’d still prefer to aim for higher upside.

Sleeper Class (200 & later)

James White, RB (ADP: 245): White is here to play on passing downs and make us groan that Harris or Stevenson isn’t on the field. White fell flat in 2020, and 2021 robbed him of the opportunity to make a difference because he was limited to three games due to injury. Reports are that he’s still limping around, so it is possible Harris and Stevenson naturally fade him out of this offense, especially with McDaniels moving on. If he does play a role, it won’t be a fantasy relevant one. He’ll just chip away at the value of the guys we want to see.

Kendrick Bourne, WR (ADP: 279): Bourne may be the actual best receiver on this team. He was second on the team in targets, put up the most receiving yards of any WR (800) and scored the second-most receiving TDs (5) behind Henry. He also came in just outside PFF’s Top 20 WRs, slotting in right behind Michael Pittman. It sure seems like Parker was brought in to do Bourne’s job but with more upside, but new receivers often come to New England and struggle. We cannot count him out.

Jonnu Smith, TE (ADP: 319): I simply do not understand how Smith came to this team and was seldom used and only scored one touchdown. I refuse to believe a player this athletic can’t be a key piece of this team’s attack. His eight-TD season in 2020 lives rent free in my head, but the truth is that he’s probably just a bust signing and he won’t matter for fantasy teams in 2022.

Nelson Agholor, WR (ADP: 352): Agholor was a big old bust last season, failing to hit 500 receiving yards and scoring just three touchdowns, but he’s also probably their best bet to be a deep threat this season. I wouldn’t bet on him amounting to anything beyond a few splashy plays though.