2022 Team Previews: New Orleans Saints

New Orleans Saints Fantasy Preview 2022

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

***Alvin Kamara, RB (ADP: 20): Kamara is among the best of the best in fantasy, and this ADP reflects that. His availability is uncertain as the NFL investigates a felony assault allegation from an incident that occurred Pro Bowl weekend, and even with a potential six-game ban looming he’s still inside the Top 20. Kamara is the Saints offense. He doesn’t quite see the volume other players of his stature see, but that’s a good thing. He’s incredibly efficient – 4.6 career yards per carry – and one of the elite pass catchers in the NFL at the RB position. If his legal issues are cleared up by the time you draft, and he’s not missing time, he can be taken as high as No. 3 overall. If he’s missing four or fewer games, I don’t think I’d be upset with taking him at this ADP.

**Michael Thomas, WR (ADP: 69): Thomas is one of the riskiest players in fantasy this year…or is he? He’s played five games since the end of 2019, and hasn’t scored a touchdown in an NFL game since the 2019 season. He also doesn’t have Drew Brees getting him the ball anymore. Father Time is undefeated, and cruel, so Thomas, who will turn 30 this season, has a lot to prove. With that said, at least he has a QB who figures to capably throw the football with some volume. Jameis Winston isn’t Brees by a long shot, but we have seen him support multiple fantasy-relevant receivers, and Thomas is arguably the best WR Winston’s ever thrown to. As for Thomas himself, while it’s been a while since we saw him at his peak, he’s never been healthy and not a top receiver.

Prior to 2020, Thomas had never posted fewer than 1,137 yards nor had he ever caught fewer than 92 passes. He also posted nine touchdowns in three of his first five NFL seasons, despite not being known as a “touchdowns guy.” When healthy, this man delivers. I expect him to do so in 2022, returning tremendous value on his current status as the WR31 off the board.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

Chris Olave, WR (ADP: 116): Olave is going to be interesting, because he figures to see a lot of work from Jameis Winston, especially in the early going if Kamara is suspended. He’s walking into the NFL as a master route runner, and also posted an 82.4% success rate on contested catches per Reception Perception, clarifying his double-digit touchdown totals as a sophomore and a senior in loaded Ohio State receiving groups. The biggest question for Olave is a rookie is how much opportunity he’ll see. Before getting hurt, Winston was succeeding on efficiency rather than volume. If New Orleans really leans on the ground game, and Thomas is back monopolizing targets, it could cap Olave’s ceiling. Or, Kamara could miss time, Winston could maintain his efficiency even with increased volume, and Olave could really pop. It’s impossible to know for sure, but this ADP prices in the risk of a lowered ceiling.

Jarvis Landry, WR (ADP: 130): Landry looked like a high-quality addition to this team, which has been incredibly weak at WR besides Thomas for several seasons, and was downright atrocious with Thomas out. I still believe that he was an excellent real life signing, but I am not convinced that he will be as useful to fantasy teams as he will be to the Saints live offense. Landry’s shown he is a declining player, performing poorly on slants and routes to the flat, which he ran the most in 2021. His success rate against zone dropped severely in 2021, which was his primary function; he’s a known excellent route runner, so that means injuries have, over time, sapped his athletic ability and made him more pedestrian. He already struggled against man and press coverage, so if he struggles to get open vs. zone now as well he’s not going to see the necessary volume to succeed. Winston can conceivably support two fantasy-relevant receivers, but three is pushing it. Thomas is going to be there, and if the choice is Olave or Landry, that’s an easy one for me. Landry’s long been a favorite of mine, but his days as a weekly option are through.

Mark Ingram, RB (ADP: 150): Ingram could potentially see high volume in the early going due to a Kamara suspension, but even if he does, he maxes out as a low-end RB2. He rushed for 3.5 yards per carry last season and 4.2 the year before with the Ravens, who make life as easy as any offense in the NFL on RBs. Ingram is the kind of player that you’d hope to only need as an emergency FLEX, and even with the full three-down workload is not exciting. At this late ADP he's fine, but fantasy managers shouldn’t draft him with any expectation that he could become a sneaky big-time contributor. Those days are done.

Jameis Winston, QB (ADP: 170): Besides Thomas, Winston is easily the most interesting player on this squad. He’s coming off a torn ACL, so Winston’s sneaky plus rushing ability can’t be counted on in 2022. What we can reasonably hope for, and this is the reason he’s interesting, is his newfound efficiency. Winston only averaged 167.1 yards per game last year through the air, but managed 14 touchdowns vs. only three interceptions despite throwing to one of the NFL’s worst receiving groups. His game logs only make this more confusing; Winston had a five-touchdown game in Week 1 vs. the Packers and a four-touchdown outing vs. Washington in Week 5. In four other games he threw either one or zero touchdowns and maxed out at 226 yards in those efforts. PFF ranked Winston as their No. 18 QB, and his QB DVOA wasn’t any great shakes. We’ve seen Winston put up QB1 production before, and this receiving corps is significantly upgraded, but he will need to up the yardage if he’s going to rate as a weekly option. This ADP makes sense, and he's a nice dart throw, but I’m looking elsewhere if I don’t want to stream all season.

Sleeper Class (200 & later)

Taysom Hill, QB/TE (ADP: 248): Hill is a pretty popular deep sleeper this year, and, honestly, I don’t really get it. This team has real TEs on it. Hill is a superior athlete for sure, and I have no doubt the Saints will involve him in interesting ways that lead to touchdowns. But to expect him to be able to deliver consistent, fantasy relevant production from the TE position is kind of crazy. He’d be interesting if he was the Saints’ QB, but that ship has sailed, along with my interest.

Adam Trautman, TE (ADP: 305): Trautman should be this team’s primary TE, and while he flopped with some expectations last season that can be chalked up to injuries. When he was on the field he showed some promise, averaging a healthy 9.7 yards per catch. The Saints might not pass enough for him to earn weekly value, but he’s worth keeping an eye on.

Marquez Callaway, WR (ADP: 291): Callaway was the talk of the town last preseason, only to catch fewer than 50 passes despite being part of one of the NFL’s shallowest receiving groups. He did score six touchdowns, but kiss those goodbye with this offseason’s upgrades. Not interested.

Deonte Harty, WR (ADP: 380): Harty was more interesting before the Saints added Olave and Landry to the mix, but it’s worth noting how impressive he was in his own way. He put up 36 receptions, 570 yards and three touchdowns despite serving primarily as a return man. Harty ranked fifth per PFF (ignoring the snap minimum) and a Top 15 WR DVOA. He is a serious deep threat, and while this now-crowded group probably won’t allow for the volume necessary to become a weekly option, he’s still going to be a usable DFS player with crazy cheap pricing.

Juwan Johnson, WR/TE (ADP: 387): Johnson is a long shot, as you can see from how many potential fantasy relevant players there are here, but he is a physical specimen – 6’4, 231 lbs. – and he did catch four touchdown passes in 2021 while averaging more than 12 yards per catch. He has the look of a dangerous red zone weapon, and while he won’t see anywhere near the required volume to matter on a weekly basis, he could become a usable, TD-dependent TE. In super deep leagues or dynasty leagues I’m not opposed to him as a stash.