2022 Team Previews: Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles Fantasy Preview 2022
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Top 120
A.J. Brown, WR (ADP: 28): Brown’s arrival in Philadelphia is interesting, because while he’ll still be the WR1 for this team, he has far more competition for targets, and even fewer total targets to be spread around. Brown’s game has always been efficiency; he’s averaged 16.2 yards per reception in his career and posted two 1,000+ yard receiving seasons with 52 and 70 catches. Last season he battled injury, but still put up 869 yards and five touchdowns on 63 receptions. The questions about Brown are surely not about his ability, but rather his situation. DeVonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert are much better options than he’s had to compete with during his Titans years, and he’s experiencing a downgrade in passer quality.
Of course, Jalen Hurts is a superior fantasy option to Ryan Tannehill, and Hurts is one of this offseason’s hottest topics. But while Hurts may be more exciting than Tannehill, there’s no debate as to which QB is the better passer right now and that is Tannehill. For a player like Brown, a QB who can effectively get him the ball down the field is essential to him hitting his ceiling, and it’s unproven whether Hurts can do that consistently. Brown ranked as a Top 5 WR per PFF, so he will most likely be fine, but Hurts could limit his total upside. He’s going as the WR9 off the board, and that seems just right.
**Jalen Hurts, QB (ADP: 65): Hurts’ 2021 season was stunning, completely trampling on my negativity toward him in the preseason. As we roll into 2022, fantasy managers have fully bought in, taking him eighth off the board at the position. While I’m much more bullish on him now than when I had been comparing him to Daniel Jones, I’m still not ready to treat him like he’s risk-free.
I wrote here about how 2022 is a put up or shut up year for him, and the Eagles have certainly invested in Hurts succeeding. Brown has joined DeVonta Smith in the receiving corps, and Philly will benefit from having Dallas Goedert taking full ownership of the TE position. Hurts left a lot to be desired as a passer last season, but meaningful development in that area will transform him from a good fantasy QB to an elite one.
The key to his game is the rushing. He led all QBs in rushing points per game last season, even blowing out Lamar Jackson on a per game basis because of his 10 rushing touchdowns. Hurts isn’t necessarily a speedster like Jackson or Kyler Murray, but he’s got impressive wheels and the attempts are built right into the game plan. Hurts ran 9.2 times per game, the second-most in the NFL, and averaged 52.3 yards per game, also second in the NFL. That’s going to continue, and even if he loses some TDs off his total he’ll still be an elite rusher in the tier of Jackson and Josh Allen. At this ADP, I believe he’s a value, but if the ADP keeps spiking, I’d start to hesitate because his unrefined passing could hold him back from hitting a Jackson-esque ceiling.
**Miles Sanders, RB (ADP: 68): Sanders is going to be a major steal on draft day. He let down fantasy managers last season due to inconsistent usage and zero touchdowns on the year. The latter fact is unthinkable, as Philadelphia had one of the NFL’s most run-heavy attacks and Sanders was the lead dog. He carried the ball 137 times, averaging 5.5 yards a clip, the best mark of his career. Injuries were a factor in 2021 – and have been frequently for Sanders – but last season after returning from an injury he averaged 90.8 yards per game from Weeks 11-16 and averaging no fewer than 6.4 yards per carry in any game during that span. Sanders’ lack of touchdowns is very fluky, with Hurts scoring 10 times on the ground. This is a glaring positive regression candidate, and because Sanders’ efficiency is no fluke, this is going to be amazing value if that efficiency comes with TDs. If you can stomach the risk of injury each week, and tolerate the occasional inexplicably low usage, Sanders has the talent to be a league-winner.
**Dallas Goedert, TE (ADP: 77): I hyped up Goedert earlier this offseason here, but let me reiterate – this man is a stud. Mark Andrews had been a consistently second-tier TE with TE1 overall upside until last year, when it all came together. Goedert is flashing those same signs, and the advanced metrics adore his game. He was PFF’s No. 2 TE last season, and his numbers jumped once Zach Ertz was traded and he had the lead role to himself. In the Weeks without Ertz, Goedert drew a target share that was higher in this offense than Andrews saw with the Ravens, and A.J. Brown’s presence should lessen the attention shown to Goedert in red zone passing situations. Right now, Goedert is the TE8 off the board, but I think he will beat that mark and be a big value.
DeVonta Smith, WR (ADP: 89): Smith is a very interesting player this year for fantasy, because he’s clearly an excellent wide receiver, and it’s also very unclear if he will be a vital fantasy option. Smith was PFF’s No. 22 WR as a rookie, and did so with a subpar passer at QB in an offense that threw the fewest passes in the NFL. Smith walked into the league an elite route runner, and saw massive success when running outs, digs, comebacks, curls, posts and corner routes. He’s an asset to Hurts, who isn’t the most accurate of QBs, because he raises Hurts’ margin for error. The problem is that despite his blazing speed, he was weakest on nine routes (54.1% success rate) and he ran fewer post and corner routes than digs and curls. Smith’s game is a bit more volume-dependent because those chunk plays that A.J. Brown eats off of aren’t what they ask Smith to do. So what we may see here is a player who jumps off the screen at you, but finishes with underwhelming numbers. As a rookie, Smith posted a 64-catch, 916-yard, five-touchdown season. It’s a fine rookie campaign, and I am of the mind that Smith is an elite real-life receiver. Fantasy-wise though? This ADP is okay, but probably his ceiling because of this offense.
Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)
**Kenneth Gainwell, RB (ADP: 134): Gainwell is an intriguing player entering Year 2 of his career, because his up-and-down rookie season showed promise. He was uninvolved for most of the season, but when he did get a shot on the field he was useful, scoring six total touchdowns, averaging a healthy 4.3 yards per carry and catching 2.1 passes per game out of the backfield. It would’ve been nice to see him grab the bull by the horns and assume control of the backfield when Sanders missed time, but that’s a lot to ask of a rookie. In Year 2, if Sanders gets hurt again, this will be Gainwell’s backfield to lose. And as a two-way threat, that’s a path to real relevance.
Sleeper Class (200 & later)
Boston Scott, RB (ADP: 279): Scott won’t go away. He’s a reasonably useful player when he gets time on the field, but at this point he’s become an annoyance to fantasy managers who want to see a) Miles Sanders thrive in a three-down role and b) Gainwell get all the opportunities that Scott swallows up. Scott quietly scored seven rushing touchdowns last season – reminder, Sanders had ZERO! WTF??? – and ALLLL of them came from three yards or closer. That’s shocking and unlikely to persist, but his continued presence has a cooling effect on Sanders’ and Gainwell’s ADP. I’m of the mind we should be thankful for the value, but time will tell.